Henderson, Hall, Westburg, and Stowers - Potential unintended consequence of the new service time rules?

[Orioles0615]

2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Vavra got first crack over Stowers. Maybe only an argument could be made for Gunnar. Westburg has really struggled since his initial hot streak in AAA. Hall has been inconsistent, but I think there is a chance there. 

I thought Vavra was only here because what's his face is on the IL. What happens when forgettable scrub guy comes back from the IL I wonder. 

[interloper]

2 minutes ago, Orioles0615 said:

I thought Vavra was only here because what's his face is on the IL. What happens when forgettable scrub guy comes back from the IL I wonder. 

I think Vavra's left-handedness and knack for getting on base will save him. Arauz hopefully will be DFA. 

[RVAOsFan]

22 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Absolutely.  The top guys in the pen, outside of I believe Bautista, are screaming for a good regression.  And while the offense isn’t really having any stand out performances, you just never know.

What does this team look like with Henderson, Stowers, et al?  
 

Who knows but we should be finding out.

I hate jumping on to the other side of this argument because I want to win this year more than ever its be a painful few years.  We need to address the elephant in the room though and that is the starting pitching.  Wells is hurt, Grayson is hurt and Hall is not pitching like a guy ready to be called up.  Where are we going to find the pitching to keep us in a playoff game to give these young bats a chance?

[Hallas]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I blame Angelos.  The team is winning this year by accident, not because they were expecting it.

If he had gone to Elias and said, starting in 2022, we are opening the checkbook and trying to win, I think Adley is up in 2021.  But since they were still good with not winning, they valued the service time higher.

Just don’t tell me that they did because Adley wasn’t ready.  That’s bs.

I don't think there is any scenario outside of a September callup that Elias willingly calls up Adley in 2021.  Not for a team that's on pace to win 60 games.  Even if they committed to opening the checkbook in 2022, so many things would have had to go right for the O's to be in contention.  I would want to extend his cost controlled years as much as possible.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Hallas said:

I don't think there is any scenario outside of a September callup that Elias willingly calls up Adley in 2021.  Not for a team that's on pace to win 60 games.  Even if they committed to opening the checkbook in 2022, so many things would have had to go right for the O's to be in contention.  I would want to extend his cost controlled years as much as possible.

"I want you to make signing Adley to a long term contract before Spring Training in 2022 a high priority."

[sportsfan8703]

3 minutes ago, RVAOsFan said:

I hate jumping on to the other side of this argument because I want to win this year more than ever its be a painful few years.  We need to address the elephant in the room though and that is the starting pitching.  Wells is hurt, Grayson is hurt and Hall is not pitching like a guy ready to be called up.  Where are we going to find the pitching to keep us in a playoff game to give these young bats a chance?

At this point it is what it is. So “why not” just root for the guys that are here?  We’re not magically finding pitching improvements. Maybe Hall as a reliever. 
 

Let’s look at what we do have… A top bullpen and top defense. GG level players at CF, SS, and Catcher. Above average defense pretty much every where else. Then we have guys like Mateo and Urias busting out. Literally, Urias is a beast. 
 

Just keep winning. We’re not a fluke. 

[Hallas]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

"I want you to make signing Adley to a long term contract before Spring Training in 2022 a high priority."

But then why give up a cost-controlled season, which would be leverage for a long term deal with Adley, for a team going nowhere?  I really don't think that service time manipulation is going to be the difference between us signing Adley and not, and it might save the team 10-20 million.

[geschinger]

3 minutes ago, Hallas said:

But then why give up a cost-controlled season, which would be leverage for a long term deal with Adley, for a team going nowhere?  I really don't think that service time manipulation is going to be the difference between us signing Adley and not, and it might save the team 10-20 million.

Exactly - let's put ourselves in a worse position to try to accomplish X goal isn't exactly a sound strategy.

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, RVAOsFan said:

I hate jumping on to the other side of this argument because I want to win this year more than ever its be a painful few years.  We need to address the elephant in the room though and that is the starting pitching.  Wells is hurt, Grayson is hurt and Hall is not pitching like a guy ready to be called up.  Where are we going to find the pitching to keep us in a playoff game to give these young bats a chance?

Wells will be back and maybe Grayson as well.

I agree with your point but here’s the thing..the pitching doesn’t have to be good for a full year now.  It only has to be good for like 7-8 weeks.  I don’t disagree that it seems like that’s not likely but it has been likely and I’m not giving up and playing inferior players because of some off the wall chance you may be able to recoup a draft pick.  At some point, the idea of winning has to be important.  We are at that point imo..just as the 2012 Os were.

[sportsfan8703]

I think we could add Stowers when rosters expand on 9/1. On 9/1, will there still be a limit on pitchers you can have on the 28 man roster?  If not, we probably add pitchers. 

[Sports Guy]

23 minutes ago, Hallas said:

I don't think there is any scenario outside of a September callup that Elias willingly calls up Adley in 2021.  Not for a team that's on pace to win 60 games.  Even if they committed to opening the checkbook in 2022, so many things would have had to go right for the O's to be in contention.  I would want to extend his cost controlled years as much as possible.

I would much rather be in the playoffs this year than worry about if we get Adley at age 31..oh and we are probably going to lose the year anyway, so not bringing up last year looks even worse.

[RVAOsFan]

9 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I think we could add Stowers when rosters expand on 9/1. On 9/1, will there still be a limit on pitchers you can have on the 28 man roster?  If not, we probably add pitchers. 

I think we could call up Stowers tomorrow and send Nevin down.  Before someone says Nevin is the backup 1B, I am aware.  

[foxfield]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

While I do think the team is going to fade down the stretch (big shocker I know) I do think it will be an interesting debate if the O's fall a couple games short of the playoffs.

It will be a debate here.  Elias has already clearly expressed his and I think finishing tied with say Seattle who has a tiebreaker would be just fine with Elias.

 

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Tony mentions that this year is house money for Elias and I agree…but when you think about it, the arrogance of that thought is crazy.

You never know when you will have chances to win.  The Orioles could look great on paper next year and have bad luck and not be as good.

Not to mention, the potential revenue you gain by making the playoffs.

I don’t see how you don’t go for this.  I have been someone who hasn’t been a believer in this team but the reality is they are right there and showing no signs of slowing down.

You can’t assume these chances will just readily be there.  Dan Marino talked about how he thought he was going to go to Super Bowls all the time after going early in his career..he never went again.

 

There are some really good points here.  Dan Marino's point is a good one.  The expectation was that the Dolphins were gonna be good for a long time. They weren't.

And the Orioles are good enough to be considered playoff contenders, although they are still in 4th place in the AL East.  Amazingly they are now the first team chasing a wildcard behind the three currently in...Toronto Tampa and Seattle.

But there is no revenue boost potentially here that is not gained from playing as they are now.  A wildcard in the playoffs will now be on the road for the entire first series.  Could the Orioles survive?

It may not be totally out of the question.  At some point in the middle of August as it marches towards September, this team is either gonna fade or the games are going to begin to seem very important.

But are the Orioles missing an opportunity.  I think that remains to be seen.  They have shots that can be added to the mix.  And they have continued to win in spite of being counted out time and time again by people blaming the players, the manager, the GM and the owner.

I am just appreciating the success this year, in the first year that the GM has said that results matter.   I don't have any trouble believing that the results have even surprised Orioles management.  I do however also believe it is not accidental.

The Orioles could be the best team in each of the next 5 years and not win a title.  But 2022 is not likely to be our apex as it was for Dan Marino and his Dolphins in 1985.  The climb is just beginning.  But let's still see how strong we can finish in '22.

[Hallas]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

I would much rather be in the playoffs this year than worry about if we get Adley at age 31..oh and we are probably going to lose the year anyway, so not bringing up last year looks even worse.

I don't think calling him up in 2021 would have had much to do with his ability to perform in 2022.  Maybe if you buy that he needed time to adjust to MLB pitching, but we could have (and maybe should have) done that with a September callup that wouldn't have affected his service time.  And he started 2022 with an injury so there wasn't any intention of manipulating his service time this season.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Hallas said:

I don't think calling him up in 2021 would have had much to do with his ability to perform in 2022.  Maybe if you buy that he needed time to adjust to MLB pitching, but we could have (and maybe should have) done that with a September callup that wouldn't have affected his service time.  And he started 2022 with an injury so there wasn't any intention of manipulating his service time this season.

I'm not sure where this narrative comes from.

We do not know what the intention was this season.

I do not think Elias ever stated that Adley was going to start the season in the majors.

It is most certainly possible that his intent was to get the seventh season.