Henderson, Hall, Westburg, and Stowers - Potential unintended consequence of the new service time rules?

[NCRaven]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Are you saying that the only rational decision is to game service time?

That's what it sounds like.

Personally, I don't think it's the "only" rational decision.  But it could be one rational decision.  On the other hand, it absolutely made sense to bring up Machado in 2012.  I think it makes just as much sense to bring up Henderson and Stowers now, rookie status be damned.  But, I can understand why they waited to bring up Rutschman this year.  I might not have agreed with it, but I could see it being a reasonable, or at least arguable, decision.

[jamalshw]

7 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

Personally, I don't think it's the "only" rational decision.  But it could be one rational decision.  On the other hand, it absolutely made sense to bring up Machado in 2012.  I think it makes just as much sense to bring up Henderson and Stowers now, rookie status be damned.  But, I can understand why they waited to bring up Rutschman this year.  I might not have agreed with it, but I could see it being a reasonable, or at least arguable, decision.

I think it would make some sense, but given the team is playing well without them and we're about 2 weeks away from being able to retain that rookie status, I think it makes just as much sense (if not more) to wait, at least on Henderson. I don't know that Stower's chances of a top ROY finish is high enough to wait on him. 

I personally think Stowers should have been up as soon as Mancini was dealt, but it'll be very interesting to see what this team looks like in a couple weeks and see if rookie status really is a factor or not. 

[Can_of_corn]

While I do think the team is going to fade down the stretch (big shocker I know) I do think it will be an interesting debate if the O's fall a couple games short of the playoffs.

[geschinger]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Are you saying that the only rational decision is to game service time?

That's what it sounds like.

Not at all, it’s not the only rational decision. 

if a team is in a playoff hunt and the prospect is ready and could help then the potential outcome of making the playoffs exceeds the outcome of the extra year so bring him up.

Without the changes to the CBA what was the best case outcome for the O’s if they brought Adley up in 2021 and the odds of hitting the best case outcome?  Is that better than an extra year of control?

Seems to me an analogy for the Os and Adley would be sitting w/19 at a blackjack table.  Rational decision for is to stay even though they could hit and the next card could be a 2.  For a team in a diff position it could be they are sitting with a hand where the rational decision is to hit or double down.

 

[IPlayGM]

11 minutes ago, geschinger said:

Not at all, it’s not the only rational decision. 

if a team is in a playoff hunt and the prospect is ready and could help then the potential outcome of making the playoffs exceeds the outcome of the extra year so bring him up.

Without the changes to the CBA what was the best case outcome for the O’s if they brought Adley up in 2021 and the odds of hitting the best case outcome?  Is that better than an extra year of control?

Seems to me an analogy for the Os and Adley would be sitting w/19 at a blackjack table.  Rational decision for is to stay even though they could hit and the next card could be a 2.  For a team in a diff position it could be they are sitting with a hand where the rational decision is to hit or double down.

 

I’m curious of the business side of this decision. If a team makes the playoffs by bringing a top prospect up, how much money would this need to be for playoff revenue to offset that extra year of control? Is it even close? My first thought would be no, just because that final year for the player would be super expensive, but I have no idea what playoff revenue looks like either.

[sportsfan8703]

Vavra got first crack over Stowers. Maybe only an argument could be made for Gunnar. Westburg has really struggled since his initial hot streak in AAA. Hall has been inconsistent, but I think there is a chance there. 

[LookinUp]

46 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

While I do think the team is going to fade down the stretch (big shocker I know) I do think it will be an interesting debate if the O's fall a couple games short of the playoffs.

If the O's are still ~1 game back of the wild card come 8/23, I think it would be a dereliction of duty not to promote Henderson, Stowers and Hall. Maybe even Westburg.

It may already be that bad, though I suspect some mathematical model puts the difference in probabilities at like 1%, but if it's the case on 8/23, I'll be infuriated if they do not.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think that owners telling GMs to spend money doesn't generally end well.

And I do think it's meddling.

It's 100% meddling. The Owner doesn't tell the GM what he should spend, he gives him a budget and the GM descides how to use it. 

We all know Elias was not trying to win until this year, and honestly, I still don't think he's "going for it" this year, but rather allowing the team to play the best it can with what it has.

This team still employs Odor as a regular, a right-handed back up 3B/1B on a team with right-handed 3B/1B, and has a right-handed and left-handed 5th outfielder types in Mckenna and Phillips.

We can argue until we're blue in the face but it's not going to change how Elias built this organization nor change the way he brings up players.

It's pretty clear he doesn't want to mess with Henderson's rookie status next year for the off chance he helps the team slip into the wild card this year. 

Basically this year is house money for Elias. Now next offseason we will really see if the pocketbook is opened and whether Elias is willing to trade major league and nearly major league talent to other teams for starting pitching that could make this team a true contender next year.

 

[LA2]

33 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

It's 100% meddling. The Owner doesn't tell the GM what he should spend, he gives him a budget and the GM descides how to use it. 

We all know Elias was not trying to win until this year, and honestly, I still don't think he's "going for it" this year, but rather allowing the team to play the best it can with what it has.

This team still employs Odor as a regular, a right-handed back up 3B/1B on a team with right-handed 3B/1B, and has a right-handed and left-handed 5th outfielder types in Mckenna and Phillips.

We can argue until we're blue in the face but it's not going to change how Elias built this organization nor change the way he brings up players.

It's pretty clear he doesn't want to mess with Henderson's rookie status next year for the off chance he helps the team slip into the wild card this year. 

Basically this year is house money for Elias. Now next offseason we will really see if the pocketbook is opened and whether Elias is willing to trade major league and nearly major league talent to other teams for starting pitching that could make this team a true contender next year.

 

Do you think the players have concluded that that is Elias's plan for this year as well? Do you think it has any impact on their morale or play? On Hyde's approach, aside from the fact that he has fewer good options on the bench?

Edited August 9, 2022 by LA2

[Tony-OH]

Just now, LA2 said:

Do you think the players have concluded that that is Elias's plan for this year as well? Do you think it has any impact on their morale or play?

No, I don't think it affects them at all. Every player on this team is ultimately playing for themselves, whether that's to establish themselves as a major leaguer or setting themselves up for a big pay day. 

The fact that they've been winning a lot with their current roster, they probably aren't asking themselves why Henderson is still in AAA and Odor starts every day. 

I think every player tries their best everyday and I don't believe they play harder or focus harder because of veteranosity or from how their GM is setting things up for the future.

 

 

[sportsfan8703]

Lost in the Henderson/Westburg debate is the budding, dare I say, “stars” in Urias and Mateo. They’ve taken their lumps, but look where they are at right now. 
 

I think Vavra got the first crack over Stowers because the team needed a little more OBP. 
 

Hall has struggled mightily in AAA. 
 

GR should’ve been up. Adley should’ve been up. 

[NCRaven]

I think that veterans, like Odor and Lyles, can have value.  But in Odor’s case, I can’t believe it comes close to make up for bad production.  Lyles, the World’s Best Dad, on the other hand, had far exceeded my expectations.

Edited August 9, 2022 by NCRaven

[Sports Guy]

Tony mentions that this year is house money for Elias and I agree…but when you think about it, the arrogance of that thought is crazy.

You never know when you will have chances to win.  The Orioles could look great on paper next year and have bad luck and not be as good.

Not to mention, the potential revenue you gain by making the playoffs.

I don’t see how you don’t go for this.  I have been someone who hasn’t been a believer in this team but the reality is they are right there and showing no signs of slowing down.

You can’t assume these chances will just readily be there.  Dan Marino talked about how he thought he was going to go to Super Bowls all the time after going early in his career..he never went again.

 

[glenn__davis]

20 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Tony mentions that this year is house money for Elias and I agree…but when you think about it, the arrogance of that thought is crazy.

You never know when you will have chances to win.  The Orioles could look great on paper next year and have bad luck and not be as good.

Not to mention, the potential revenue you gain by making the playoffs.

I don’t see how you don’t go for this.  I have been someone who hasn’t been a believer in this team but the reality is they are right there and showing no signs of slowing down.

You can’t assume these chances will just readily be there.  Dan Marino talked about how he thought he was going to go to Super Bowls all the time after going early in his career..he never went again.

 

I do agree with this and think it's a great point.  I've made the point several times as well that there's no way the bullpen next year will be as good as this year.  If we make the choice not to go for it we're wasting an historically good and unexpected year from the bullpen.

I get being patient, staying the course, etc but it's very possible, as rosy as things look next year, that the team takes a step back.  

[Sports Guy]

13 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

I do agree with this and think it's a great point.  I've made the point several times as well that there's no way the bullpen next year will be as good as this year.  If we make the choice not to go for it we're wasting an historically good and unexpected year from the bullpen.

I get being patient, staying the course, etc but it's very possible, as rosy as things look next year, that the team takes a step back.  

Absolutely.  The top guys in the pen, outside of I believe Bautista, are screaming for a good regression.  And while the offense isn’t really having any stand out performances, you just never know.

What does this team look like with Henderson, Stowers, et al?  
 

Who knows but we should be finding out.