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8/9: Stowers Big Night

cboemmeljr

By cboemmeljr
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mlrhode Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

mlrhode

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1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Nice bomb to center. Hopefully he's getting back on track. I worry a bit that he's going to be a streaky hitter like Mountcastle and Hays though.

Actually his previous 2 ABs were impressive too. He walked both times showing patience and not swinging early in the count. He had been overly aggressive early in the count the several weeks.

Maybe this begins a hot streak for him

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RZNJ Hangout Grand Counsel

RZNJ

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1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Nice bomb to center. Hopefully he's getting back on track. I worry a bit that he's going to be a streaky hitter like Mountcastle and Hays though.

He's got 7 walks and 7 K's to start the month.  4 walks and no K's in last 3.  Homer to CF and also a line out to CF.  I feel a hot streak.   

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RZNJ Hangout Grand Counsel

RZNJ

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Just now, RZNJ said:

He's got 7 walks and 7 K's to start the month.  4 walks and no K's in last 3.  Homer to CF and also a line out to CF.  I feel a hot streak.   Better plate discipline than Mountcastle. Better power than Hays.  Streaky?  Yes, but let's hope he's learning things that will keep the cold streaks shorter.

 

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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I’ve often wondered, if you have two players with identical overall stats, one of whom is streakier and the other of whom is steadier, is one any mire valuable than the other?   And then at the team level, is it better to have 9 steady guys, 9 streaky guys, or a mix?   There’s a temptation to say steadier is better, but sometimes a streaky guy can carry an otherwise mediocre offense when he’s hor.  I think @DrungoHazewoodhas said there’s some research saying it doesn’t really matter one way or the other so long as overall production is the same.   But steadier production perhaps is more aesthetically pleasing because ice cold hitters are so frustrating to watch.  

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’ve often wondered, if you have two players with identical overall stats, one of whom is streakier and the other of whom is steadier, is one any mire valuable than the other?   And then at the team level, is it better to have 9 steady guys, 9 streaky guys, or a mix?   There’s a temptation to say steadier is better, but sometimes a streaky guy can carry an otherwise mediocre offense when he’s hor.  I think @DrungoHazewoodhas said there’s some research saying it doesn’t really matter one way or the other so long as overall production is the same.   But steadier production perhaps is more aesthetically pleasing because ice cold hitters are so frustrating to watch.  

I don't think I've ever seen any good studies on the topic, probably because of a few things:

1) I don't think players are as streaky or consistent as might be commonly perceived.  Eddie Murray was Steady Eddie and he had a month where he OPS'd .490 and a month where he OPS'd 1.301. In April of '81 Eddie went 5-for-37 with a .364 OPS, in September of '81 he had a 1.105. This is a guy whose nickname was consistency.

2) There are problems defining streakiness.  Is it month-to-month? Weeks? Days? 

3) Streakiness isn't predictive.  No matter the results of the last day/week/month the odds are a career .250 is going to go 1-for-4 today.

4) Because of #3 you can't leverage it.  You'll often hear that so-and-so needs to play today because he's hot. But that's not really a thing, you can't just play someone when he's hot and bench him when he's cold.  Everyone has supposedly hot and and cold streaks but you never know when it's going to flip, you always end up playing the guy a week into the cold streak and bench him when he's probably about to have better results. Also, if you model hot and cold streaks with random PA-to-PA variation around career marks the results are essentially indistinguishable from what you see in real life.  Practically speaking hot and cold streaks are random.

5) Some of what's perceived as streakiness is actually injury.

6) I think bad players are more consistent than good players.  In 2009 Cesar Izturis had an OPS between .584 and .685 every month he had more than 10 PAs. That same year Nick Markakis had monthly OPSes between .642 and 1.020.

If you're talking year-to-year you'd rather have the guy who has some 8-win seasons and some 1-win seasons rather than someone who just has 3-win seasons all the time.  Because 8-win seasons are the kind of thing that can push a team over the top and you can build and trade and push in specific years.  But in-season streakiness isn't like that, you can't leverage it.

Edited by DrungoHazewood
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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I thought Stowers was the Luke Scott type streaky hitter?  I guess now he’s just dominant. 

Not this year.  By month: .899, .849, .910, .891, 1.191.   He did have a cold spell of maybe two or three weeks sometime in the first two months, not really anything unusually bad for any player during the course of a season.  He’s really had a nice, consistent season IMO.

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