I don't want to become the Rays

[deward]

39 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

I think we are going to operate closer to the Astros model than the Rays model- both have generally excellent talent pipelines and player development, but the Astros can make a calculated splash in free agency, which I believe the Orioles will do when the time is right, though like the Astros, I believe they will eschew long-term mega-deals.

Saunders: 8.4 Career WAR in 10 seasons

Lyles: -1.4 Career WAR in 12 seasons

What do you consider a long-term mega-deal? The Astros signed Altuve to 5/$151M and Bregman to 5/$100M. If you mean something like 10/$300M, then yeah, I don't expect them to do that. Very few players would make sense for that kind of deal.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

Just now, deward said:

What do you consider a long-term mega-deal? The Astros signed Altuve to 5/$151M and Bregman to 5/$100M. If you mean something like 10/$300M, then yeah, I don't expect them to do that. Very few players would make sense for that kind of deal.

The length of the contract is what I was referring to. They allegedly have a policy in place to not go past 5 years on free agent deals, and I think that is generally the way to go. 

[Sports Guy]

The obsession with payroll is too much for me.

Spending  is important but only so much.

Lets look at the Astros this year.  Their payroll is 174M and that is after they didn’t sign Correa. But 108 of that 174 is tied up in 6 players.  The Orioles may not be able to go that high but they can have 2-4 players making a big chunk of money and that’s fine.  That should be the goal.

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

I mean, Jordan Lyles would be our Game 1 starter in a playoff series.

Maybe second round.    One of my favorite talking points as long as the scenario stays in play is that Jordan Lyles will be team MVP and also NOT on the first round roster.     

That could "honorably" be the case if he pitches 161 or 162 to help get across the AL6 finish line, or more of a touchy case if things are even more successful.

One of the things I'm looking forward to this October is how Clubs will attack the 3-game series size I don't believe the tournament has ever had.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The obsession with payroll is too much for me.

Spending  is important but only so much.

This is pretty hilarious considering that you spent literally the entire offseason whining incessantly about the payroll being so low and the FO not spending enough in almost every single thread 

12 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

One of the things I'm looking forward to this October is how Clubs will attack the 3-game series size I don't believe the tournament has ever had.

Me too. The Wildcard Game should have always been a best-of-three series, IMO. 

[winning]

MLB 2022 Payroll Tracker | Spotrac

 

This is the payroll for every MLB team. Guys just stop it. Knock it off. Cut the nonsense. There is a linear relationship between payroll and wins. That is, the more money a team spends the more games they win. 

[ChosenOne21]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

You don’t want to be an organization that is consistently smart, consistently wins and makes the playoffs and consistently churns out high level young players?  

I'd like to be that with a bigger ML budget. I think that's what OP was trying to say

[Just Regular]

Its been in the back of my mind to ask Can of Corn to elucidate in a couple paragraphs a primer of his take on Rays ownership.    I don't know much more than they are reputed the sleaziest of the sleazy.    

Yes the playoffs are a crapshoot, but I do believe sometimes, when teams reasonably have a 53-47 forecast edge in October, they should do what they can to make it 56-44.     Are Yankees-Twins matchups really in the 55-45 ballpark?

Raysian is I feel sure a popular buzzword for front office types to gratify owners wanting more payroll efficiency and higher profits.    I hope even the Angelos Orioles (and I'll happily take whatever is behind Door #2 ownership wise before the Adley years wind down) are tougher competitors than these Rays when the chance to push a roster from good to great comes.

When Wander gets back, Adley can probably already talk smack about how Shane McClanahan is more likely to be on his team than Wander's in three years.    We'll send them Seth Johnson, Max Wagner and Jud Fabian and they'll probably love it.    It is psychobabble, but I do feel every Rays player knows this and on some level it has to be disheartening in a way even Brett Phillips' smile or Rougned Odor's combativeness can't entirely eliminate.    I hope we're not that.

Edited August 12, 2022 by Just Regular

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, winning said:

MLB 2022 Payroll Tracker | Spotrac

 

This is the payroll for every MLB team. Guys just stop it. Knock it off. Cut the nonsense. There is a linear relationship between payroll and wins. That is, the more money a team spends the more games they win.

Someone owes the Angels some wins this decade.

[winning]

Guys, this Major League Baseball. The Buck (no pun intended) stops here! Winning the World Series. That is what it's about. The only thing that accounts. This is the highest level league in the world. The only objective is to win the World Series. 

In the Minors you develop future talent for the MLB team. That's why they call it a farm. College baseball is about getting a scholarship and getting a degree. High school baseball is extracurricular. Independent Leagues and Beer Leagues are for guys who want to have fun after they leave the office. 

Again, this is Major League Baseball. If you're not here to win the World Series or rebuild for a future run. Then stop watching. Turn off the TV if you're a fan. Or quit baseball if you're a player. 

[nc_stats_nerd]

18 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The obsession with payroll is too much for me.

Spending  is important but only so much.

Lets look at the Astros this year.  Their payroll is 174M and that is after they didn’t sign Correa. But 108 of that 174 is tied up in 6 players.  The Orioles may not be able to go that high but they can have 2-4 players making a big chunk of money and that’s fine.  That should be the goal.

I've been thinking about that quite a bit too. It's been hard to imagine us hitting the same stride Houston did considering the gap in payroll but I think I overestimated the edge Houston has on us there.

If I look at average payrolls back before either of the franchises tanked payroll and scale those to the team salaries for 2022 I get:

• Houston - $142M / yr (14th)
• Baltimore -$125M / yr (17th)

Granted, the city of Houston is growing like crazy, but if we can put together some winning seasons I think we'll generate enough revenue to put us closer to their model long-term vs. Tampa's. Tampa, for reference, even during their winning stretch since 2008:

• Tampa Bay - $77M / yr

We're not NYY, but we're not remotely close to Tampa's kind of small market either.

 

[deward]

During the O's last competitive window (2012-2017), they averaged being 15th in payroll. League average this year is $135M. If payroll is allowed to grow and stabilize in that neighborhood over the next few years, then there shouldn't be any issue. No, they probably won't be signing Aaron Judge, but they would have the ability to identify and extend the cream of the crop from the homegrown talent and supplement with quality free agents where needed (or take on salary via a trade). That's all I'm hoping for.

[7Mo]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Someone owes the Angels some wins this decade.

Maybe first place Cleveland with their 27th ranked payroll. 

[Sports Guy]

21 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

This is pretty hilarious considering that you spent literally the entire offseason whining incessantly about the payroll being so low and the FO not spending enough in almost every single thread 

Me too. The Wildcard Game should have always been a best-of-three series, IMO. 

Wow.  I understand context and understanding things aren’t your strong points but even for you, this is stupid.

The Orioles current payroll is about 7 dollars.  Yes, that is horrendous and slap in the face.  What you NEVER saw me say was that we needed to spend 150M or more.  I wanted the payroll to go up to like 70-80M.  Not being at that level is absurd.  
 

So, if you want to have a conversation, im all for it.  But do it honestly and with the understanding of what is being said.  Don’t do it in a dbag, trolling idiotic manner.

Edited August 12, 2022 by Sports Guy

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, nc_stats_nerd said:

I've been thinking about that quite a bit too. It's been hard to imagine us hitting the same stride Houston did considering the gap in payroll but I think I overestimated the edge Houston has on us there.

If I look at average payrolls back before either of the franchises tanked payroll and scale those to the team salaries for 2022 I get:

• Houston - $142M / yr (14th)
• Baltimore -$125M / yr (17th)

Granted, the city of Houston is growing like crazy, but if we can put together some winning seasons I think we'll generate enough revenue to put us closer to their model long-term vs. Tampa's. Tampa, for reference, even during their winning stretch since 2008:

• Tampa Bay - $77M / yr

We're not NYY, but we're not remotely close to Tampa's kind of small market either.

 

Correct and the Astros won their WS with a payroll under 100M iirc.

Their payroll has gone up because players have become arb eligible and they have been able to spend more as playoff revenues and ticket sales have grown.

The Os payroll went up in the mid 2010s for the same reason.  This would be my expectation going forward but I also am not going to the second and especially third arb seasons with limited guys, like Mountcastle.