Will 85 wins make the playoffs?

[Frobby]

I’ve seen multiple estimates of our playoff odds ranging from 8% to over 50%, but one thing I’ve noticed is that all of these systems are saying that the sixth team is projected to win 84-85 games.  BB-ref currently has the O’s 6th at 84.7 projected wins, Fangraphs has Tampa 6th with 85 wins, and PECOTA has Tampa 6th with 84.1 wins.  

The O’s are 59-53 with 50 games to play.   So, are we expecting that if the O’s go 26-24 from here, they’ll make the playoffs?   Stated that way, it seems like a pretty doable task.  

But personally, I don’t think 85 will be the cut line.  It’s inevitable that a couple of teams in this horse race will outperform projections while others fall behind.   I’m guessing right now that 87 will be the actual cut line.  So, 28-22 or better?  That’s a tougher task.  But we’ve played .597 ball in the 72 games since Adley arrived, so I’m not going to say it can’t be done.  
 

[Filmstudy]

39 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’ve seen multiple estimates of our playoff odds ranging from 8% to over 50%, but one thing I’ve noticed is that all of these systems are saying that the sixth team is projected to win 84-85 games.  BB-ref currently has the O’s 6th at 84.7 projected wins, Fangraphs has Tampa 6th with 85 wins, and PECOTA has Tampa 6th with 84.1 wins.  

The O’s are 59-53 with 50 games to play.   So, are we expecting that if the O’s go 26-24 from here, they’ll make the playoffs?   Stated that way, it seems like a pretty doable task.  

But personally, I don’t think 85 will be the cut line.  It’s inevitable that a couple of teams in this horse race will outperform projections while others fall behind.   I’m guessing right now that 87 will be the actual cut line.  So, 28-22 or better?  That’s a tougher task.  But we’ve played .597 ball in the 72 games since Adley arrived, so I’m not going to say it can’t be done.  
 

The "September Effect" originally postulated by Bill James would tell you it will take more than 85 games.  Winning teams get better in September, losing teams get worse when the games don't matter with trades/salary dumps making substantial contributions. 

[waroriole]

I think we’ll need 87. 

[emmett16]

Let’s get 88 and save our blood pressure.  

[Sports Guy]

The Os have 9 “easy games” left..1 vs Cubs, 3 vs Oak, 3 vs Det and 2 against DC..only the DC games are on the road.

I feel like they need to win a minimum of 6 of those games and maybe that’s too low.

But let’s say they go 6-3.  That makes them 65-56.

41 games left..playing the ALE, Houston, Cle and CWS.

If they win 85 games, that means they go 20-21 vs those teams.  That will be close.  Feel better with 87 wins but I think 85 has a chance.

Edited August 13, 2022 by Sports Guy

[Just Regular]

50 games out I think the decimal point still has some value so like the Fangraphs playoff odds...this morning they are forecasting AL6 at 84.2 wins.

MIN 84.2, TBR 83.7, CWS 82.9, BOS 81.3, BAL 79.5

MIN obviously loaded up...CLE-TBR-CWS-BOS-BAL either did little or subtracted.    Cleveland's hot run has really thrown some cold water on Jorge Lopez's opening weeks in the Central.