Tatis Jr. is evidence for not giving megadeals to youngsters

[winning]

Perhaps it is a bad idea to sign young players to massive 14 year type deals worth hundreds of millions. I don't know about you guys, but I remember what it was like to be in my early 20s. I'm 30 years old now. I did a lot of dumb things in my early 20s due to immaturity. Last thing I could handle when I was 22 was a 14 year guaranteed contract worth hundreds of millions of dollars. Most guys at that age simply don't have the maturity stay focused, dedicated and mature with that type of deal. We all saw what a douche Manny was in his younger years and he has since calmed way down and grown up in San Diego. Who is to say that if had signed Manny to a 300 million deal at 22 or 23 that he wouldn't go out there and become an even bigger baby? 

 

Come to think of it, Elias' decision to keep guys down in the minors for a while may actually be a good decision. It's not just about baseball readiness. It is about being prepared to handle yourself like a big leaguer too.

[Bahama O's Fan]

Who will be the best bang for the buck when their career is over, Tatis or Mateo?

[winning]

1 minute ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

Who will be the best bang for the buck when their career is over, Tatis or Mateo?

I'm going Mateo.

[waroriole]

Especially ones that are very immature. 
 

 

[Just Regular]

Apart from the dermatological qualifications given in the tweet, Rany Jazayerli was a longtime Baseball Prospectus muckety muck when it was stronger back in the 90's and 00's.

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/148/pitcher-abuse-points-a-new-way-to-measure-pitcher-abuse/

He was one of the architects of their Pitcher Abuse Points a quarter century ago*, documenting workload more systematically and contributing towards today's nuggets like Corbin Burnes physically unable to pitch in October, and Grayson Rodriguez in his peak physical prime maybe being shackled to 125 innings.

*jeez I'm getting old

Edited August 13, 2022 by Just Regular

[DrungoHazewood]

If you don't give large contracts to players like Tatis, you're accepting that they're going to leave at 27 or 28 and you will probably have to trade them prior to that. I mean, that's a reasonable strategy for many teams.

But even with this suspension (which the Padres will not have to pay his salary for the duration of) Tatis is quite likely to earn his contract.

[Tony-OH]

It is certainly a risky proposition to sign young players, pre arbitration to long contracts. That does not mean it does not work sometimes, but it's certainly a situation where the GM needs to be sure this is the player you not only build around, but who they think has a good chance of staying healthy.

Obviously the closer a young player gets to free agency the harder it will be buy out those arbitration years in order to get a discount on those free agency years.

It will be interesting to see if Elias goes this route since he may think he pipeline with adequately replace his young players before they become ultra expensive (assuming they become stars.)

[DrinkinWithFermi]

37 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Especially ones that are very immature. 
 

 

Oopsie!

[DrinkinWithFermi]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Obviously the closer a young player gets to free agency the harder it will be buy out those arbitration years in order to get a discount on those free agency years.

It will be interesting to see if Elias goes this route since he may think he pipeline with adequately replace his young players before they become ultra expensive (assuming they become stars.)

I am hoping that Elias will explore such deals with Adley, Gunnar, and Grayson this offseason, I think they are special enough talents to try to lock them up for the long haul (not that I would expect all 3 to bite, but maybe 1 or 2 of the 3).

[Tony-OH]

2 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

I am hoping that Elias will explore such deals with Adley, Gunnar, and Grayson this offseason, I think they are special enough talents to try to lock them up for the long haul (not that I would expect all 3 to bite, but maybe 1 or 2 of the 3).

We'll see. Elias is setting up his organization to have a pipeline of talent. No way will he or should consider Grayson Rodriguez because there is way too much injury risk for pitchers. He's literally on the IL now.

Adley is a pretty special player when he take in the position, leadership, and his skill set. I could see them trying to lock him up for 8 years or so but I'm sure Elias/Sig have some kind of risk analysis program that determines whether it's fiscally smart to do so.

I'm on the fence when it comes to these kind of big deals early in a player's career. As point out by the OP, some may not be mature enough to handle being set for life in their early 20s. Rutschman on the other hand is only an injury risk due to his position.

[winning]

24 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

If you don't give large contracts to players like Tatis, you're accepting that they're going to leave at 27 or 28 and you will probably have to trade them prior to that. I mean, that's a reasonable strategy for many teams.

But even with this suspension (which the Padres will not have to pay his salary for the duration of) Tatis is quite likely to earn his contract.

 

It is unwise to hand the keys to the franchise and give an athlete megamillions in their early 20s. Everybody is differnt, but a lot guys at 22 will go off the rails with a 300 million contract. Their brains simply can't handle it.

[maybenxtyr]

2 minutes ago, winning said:

 

It is unwise to hand the keys to the franchise and give an athlete megamillions in their early 20s. Everybody is differnt, but a lot guys at 22 will go off the rails with a 300 million contract. Their brains simply can't handle it.

Tatis Jr grew up differently than a good portion of pro athletes. There's always a risk, but the team doesn't have to pay for those 80 games. 

[Moose Milligan]

12 minutes ago, winning said:

 

It is unwise to hand the keys to the franchise and give an athlete megamillions in their early 20s. Everybody is differnt, but a lot guys at 22 will go off the rails with a 300 million contract. Their brains simply can't handle it.

I think it’s funny you’re talking about wisdom and painting with broad strokes, something a wise person wouldn’t do. 
 

But since we’re propping up one player as a cautionary tale, I’ll prop up Acuna as evidence that you can give someone in their early 20s a lot of money and they can handle it. 
 

Or a lot of NFL and NBA players. 
 

This Tatis thing is a nothingburger. 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

13 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

We'll see. Elias is setting up his organization to have a pipeline of talent. No way will he or should consider Grayson Rodriguez because there is way too much injury risk for pitchers. He's literally on the IL now.

Adley is a pretty special player when he take in the position, leadership, and his skill set. I could see them trying to lock him up for 8 years or so but I'm sure Elias/Sig have some kind of risk analysis program that determines whether it's fiscally smart to do so.

I'm on the fence when it comes to these kind of big deals early in a player's career. As point out by the OP, some may not be mature enough to handle being set for life in their early 20s. Rutschman on the other hand is only an injury risk due to his position.

While it's true that THEY ALL BREAK, I think Grayson is a special enough case to consider rolling the dice- the Orioles have not produced a legitimate ace since the Bush Sr. presidency 30 years ago, and we are unlikely to be able to ever shop from the top shelf of free agent pitching, which makes him a uniquely precious asset for the organization. It would definitely be a risk, but if we could buy out his 6 years of team control now in exchange for a couple of well-paid but hypothetically team friendly option years, I think that is worth considering (which is also the type of deal I'd offer Gunnar).

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, winning said:

 

It is unwise to hand the keys to the franchise and give an athlete megamillions in their early 20s. Everybody is differnt, but a lot guys at 22 will go off the rails with a 300 million contract. Their brains simply can't handle it.

Show me the analysis.  How many young athletes have been given big contracts, how many worked out, how many crashed and burned?  Are there common threads among either case?  Does it differ by sport, or by position?  Right now you're just speculating based on a sample of one.