2023 Rotation

[DrungoHazewood]

10 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Fair enough, but the question on the table is how we see it playing out. I think we'd all love Verlander/Degrom/Scherzer, we just recognize pitchers like that have never signed with the O's. Realistically, Lopez/Clevinger would be a terrific get.

Hey, it's only been 27 years since the Orioles had a rotation that included Mussina, Kevin Brown, Jamie Moyer, Scott Erickson, and Sid Fernandez!  Of course Moyer and Fernandez weren't any good, and Brown left after one year, to be replaced by David Wells.

[mikezpen]

If they want a contending rotation, I see the Orioles having to bring in at least 1 and possibly 2 starters in from the outside, either thru FA or trade.While their starters are holding up now, I just don't see that much of next year's rotation coming from in-house if they want to contend.. Will all of Bradish, Kremer Wells, Watkins and Lyles provide the kind of pitching we'll need? I doubt it. Will even three hold up to that level? I don't know. I hope Grayson Rodriguez becomes an anchor at some point next year. Hall has a good way to go w/his control; I don't know about him. I think we need to bring in two strong candidates from the outside to provide a larger pool to draw from.

[Frobby]

18 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

If the last 4 or 5 starts is an accurate indication I don’t see how we’d expect him to go 5. As a baseball executive I’d want him to earn his promotion. My philosophy would be, show me in the minors. Bedard was pretty dominant in the minors as I recall. 

 

Another post you made, from the McKenna thread:

@Frobby mentioned Bedard in the thread about Hall. My opinion is that he’s not ready and can’t believe that the Orioles think he is.

Erik Bedard:  before call up ERA 2.79, WHIP 1.03, HR/9 0.5, BB/9  1.9

Hall:                                            ERA 4.52, WHIP 1.43, HR/9 1.2 , BB/ 9 5.2 

**** Stats are from BBref Bedard 2003 combined minors, Hall 2022 combined.*****

===
I think you misconstrued my hypothetical about Bedard.   I was not commenting on whether Hall is as ready as Bedard or not.   I was asking a truly hypothetical question: if you knew a pitcher would need to struggle as a starter for two years against major league hitters in order to adjust and become pretty dominant in year 3, would you install him as a starter even if you knew he’d be hurting your (otherwise contending) team somewhat in the first two years?   So, I’m curious about your answer to that purely hypothetical question.  

Now, as to the comparison between Bedard and Hall, it’s pretty much apples and oranges.  The year before he made the majors, Bedard was recovering from TJ surgery.  The stats you cited above were only over 19.1 IP, and all at A+ or below.   You can’t compare that to Hall’s 2022, where he’s thrown a lot more innings, mostly at AAA.  it was a huge surprise when Bedard made the O’s roster in 2004, having never pitched an inning of AAA and having only thrown 19.1 innings in A+ and below the previous year.   The fact that he made the roster is testament to how weak the O’s pitching was at the time.  In May that year, they also called up Daniel Cabrera, who’d thrown all of 27.1 innings in AA and had never pitched in HiA at all.   That’s just how the team rolled in that era.   Bedard managed to develop into a good major league starter after a couple of years; Cabrera never did.   But Hall’s path to date has been a bit different than either of theirs.   

So, like I said, my gut feeling is that Hall is going to struggle for a year or two as a major league starter.   Will he come out the other side as a successful starting pitcher?  Is he, or the team, better off spending more time starting games in AAA next year?   Will he move to the bullpen instead and find major league success there?   That’s all TBD.  I think the plan to spend the rest of this year in the bullpen makes sense, and we’ll see if he makes the adjustment well enough over the next few weeks to return to the Orioles in that role for September.   And then he’ll come back next spring and probably get some looks as a starter and we can worry about that then.  
 

[wildcard]

23 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Another post you made, from the McKenna thread:

 

@Frobby mentioned Bedard in the thread about Hall. My opinion is that he’s not ready and can’t believe that the Orioles think he is.

Erik Bedard:  before call up ERA 2.79, WHIP 1.03, HR/9 0.5, BB/9  1.9

Hall:                                            ERA 4.52, WHIP 1.43, HR/9 1.2 , BB/ 9 5.2 

**** Stats are from BBref Bedard 2003 combined minors, Hall 2022 combined.*****

===
I think you misconstrued my hypothetical about Bedard.   I was not commenting on whether Hall is as ready as Bedard or not.   I was asking a truly hypothetical question: if you knew a pitcher would need to struggle as a starter for two years against major league hitters in order to adjust and become pretty dominant in year 3, would you install him as a starter even if you knew he’d be hurting your (otherwise contending) team somewhat in the first two years?   So, I’m curious about your answer to that purely hypothetical question.  

Now, as to the comparison between Bedard and Hall, it’s pretty much apples and oranges.  The year before he made the majors, Bedard was recovering from TJ surgery.  The stats you cited above were only over 19.1 IP, and all at A+ or below.   You can’t compare that to Hall’s 2022, where he’s thrown a lot more innings, mostly at AAA.  it was a huge surprise when Bedard made the O’s roster in 2004, having never pitched an inning of AAA and having only thrown 19.1 innings in A+ and below the previous year.   The fact that he made the roster is testament to how weak the O’s pitching was at the time.  In May that year, they also called up Daniel Cabrera, who’d thrown all of 27.1 innings in AA and had never pitched in HiA at all.   That’s just how the team rolled in that era.   Bedard managed to develop into a good major league starter after a couple of years; Cabrera never did.   But Hall’s path to date has been a bit different than either of theirs.   

So, like I said, my gut feeling is that Hall is going to struggle for a year or two as a major league starter.   Will he come out the other side as a successful starting pitcher?  Is he, or the team, better off spending more time starting games in AAA next year?   Will he move to the bullpen instead and find major league success there?   That’s all TBD.  I think the plan to spend the rest of this year in the bullpen makes sense, and we’ll see if he makes the adjustment well enough over the next few weeks to return to the Orioles in that role for September.   And then he’ll come back next spring and probably get some looks as a starter and we can worry about that then.  
 

Not if he had options.

Let him find his control in the minors.

Edited August 17, 2022 by wildcard

[Mooreisbetter27]

10 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Not if he had options.

Let him find his control in the minors.

Aren't you the same guy who thinks Holt is a wizard with pitcher's?

Why wouldn't you want Hall working with Holt on a daily basis?

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Not if he had options.

Let him find his control in the minors.

I’m not going to argue with this while Hall is sporting a 4.76 ERA in AAA.  But I do think there may come a point where the only way for Hall to develop further is to face major league hitters.   Some people may think that’s true already, but I don’t think so.  Of course, his AAA ERA was 3.51 with a .189 BAA as of July 17.   He looked pretty ready then. 

[btdart20]

15 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

Verlander could be had on a 2yr around 40 mil per deal, Rodon maybe 4yr 30 mil per, Manaea, Bassitt maybe 4/5 yrs at around 20 mil per. Not sure about Chris Sale given the injuries this year.

Most people seem to think an upgrade at the top of the rotation is needed.  If we know anything about Elias/Sig, it's that they value metrics and place some type of value on risk (how much can be argued til the cows come home - if that's still a saying).  No way they spend 'real' money until they think the team is competitive with the big dogs.  And spending on arms is the penultimate risk/reward in virtually any sport.  Given what he's said about increasing payroll and making different types of decisions going forward, I have to think he sees it's time to start looking at the risk/reward (aka wins at the MLB level) a bit differently.  I really anticipate spending on TOR SP type pitching, as you said, to match 'bullet for bullet'.

It might be interesting to split out potential FA SP targets for analysis in the off-season as separate threads.  

Verlander would be a great short-term get until Grayson is fully ramped up.  I can see kicking the tires and bidding on his services.  If nothing else, the skill set AND time horizon matches really well with the org heading into 2023-2024.  A lot of eggs in one old basket though.

Rodon would take a longer commitment.  And that's fine but impacts flexibility and raising arb costs.  I would love to see this but don't think it'll happen.

I was high on Manaea heading into 2022 as a 2023 option.  He has underwhelmed this year.  None of his pitches profile as above average.  And that seems to be something we've been targeting.  But prior years, Manaea has had a plus changeup and slider.  Is the lefty SP with Barrel% issues and changeup regression fixable by the LF Canyon and Holt can address?  Manaea has given up 21 HR YTD, in OPACY that would have been 12 (the other AL East parks has a less dramatic difference, but still less).  He throws an average sinker FB (vs. a 4-seamer), but it's the 32+% HR/FB ratio on the changeup that's been his Achilles.  He's the type of guy that could be one of those 'fixable' types that Elias has targeted before (Lyles, all those BP arms successes).  A deal similar to Lyles with options and escalators would add value and minimize long-term risks (and I can see Manaea wanting to leave the door open for a bigger pay day too).

Bassitt looks interesting.  The righty's 2022 has some positive outliers, notably his HH%, EV, and GB% rates.  But it's hard to say they are unsustainable too given that quite a few of his career rates are better than league average.  xERA, FIP, etc. seems in line with his ERA.  It's probably related to his solid 6 pitch mix.  And most of them have plus stuff on Statcast even if his velo, spin rate, etc, are lower on the scale.  He looks like a 'savvy' veteran pitcher.  I have to think (given him turning 34 in the off-season) that he'll be looking for a big contract.  If we bid on him, it'll likely need to be 'market value' and a longer-term deal as well.  If they don't like the sticker shock/risk of Rodon, maybe Bassitt represents a better risk/reward target?

 

[Spy Fox]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

 In May that year, they also called up Daniel Cabrera, who’d thrown all of 27.1 innings in AA and had never pitched in HiA at all.   That’s just how the team rolled in that era.   Bedard managed to develop into a good major league starter after a couple of years; Cabrera never did. 

This reference inspired me to look up Daniel Cabrera's career, and wow. 

1. I mainly remembered his wildness and figured he must have been a good strikeout guy to balance out in order to survive in the league. Not really! Only once in his career did he have more K than IP. And in his rookie year he had 76 K, 89 BB, in 147 IP! 

2. That same rookie year, he finished 3rd in ROY voting! Which goes to show both how far we've come in understanding the #s (his 12-8 record surely swayed some) and how wildly rookie quality varies year to year. 

[wildcard]

53 minutes ago, Mooreisbetter27 said:

Aren't you the same guy who thinks Holt is a wizard with pitcher's?

Why wouldn't you want Hall working with Holt on a daily basis?

Holt is director of pitching for the whole system.  I am sure DL gets input from Holt at AAA.   Its up to DL to improve his control.

[wildcard]

58 minutes ago, Mooreisbetter27 said:

Aren't you the same guy who thinks Holt is a wizard with pitcher's?

Why wouldn't you want Hall working with Holt on a daily basis?

Actually Moose calls Holt a wizard.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

15 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

This reference inspired me to look up Daniel Cabrera's career, and wow. 

1. I mainly remembered his wildness and figured he must have been a good strikeout guy to balance out in order to survive in the league. Not really! Only once in his career did he have more K than IP. And in his rookie year he had 76 K, 89 BB, in 147 IP! 

2. That same rookie year, he finished 3rd in ROY voting! Which goes to show both how far we've come in understanding the #s (his 12-8 record surely swayed some) and how wildly rookie quality varies year to year. 

I think if Cabrera came up today he would have been converted into a bullpen arm. If Cabrera could reign in his wildness, he really had the potential to eek out a career as a relief pitcher.

I'm kinda surprised it never happened anyways, but maybe Cabrera was insistent on trying to make it as a starting pitcher in MLB. 

[Frobby]

17 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

I think if Cabrera came up today he would have been converted into a bullpen arm. If Cabrera could reign in his wildness, he really had the potential to eek out a career as a relief pitcher.

I'm kinda surprised it never happened anyways, but maybe Cabrera was insistent on trying to make it as a starting pitcher in MLB. 

2-3 times a year he’d pitch a really dominant game and you’d think the light had switched on.  But it was always an illusion. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

20 minutes ago, Frobby said:

2-3 times a year he’d pitch a really dominant game and you’d think the light had switched on.  But it was always an illusion. 

 I still remember the near no-hitter Cabrera had at Yankees Stadium that got broken up in the ninth inning at the end of the 2006 season.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYA/NYA200609280.shtml

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, btdart20 said:

Most people seem to think an upgrade at the top of the rotation is needed.  If we know anything about Elias/Sig, it's that they value metrics and place some type of value on risk (how much can be argued til the cows come home - if that's still a saying).  No way they spend 'real' money until they think the team is competitive with the big dogs.  And spending on arms is the penultimate risk/reward in virtually any sport.  Given what he's said about increasing payroll and making different types of decisions going forward, I have to think he sees it's time to start looking at the risk/reward (aka wins at the MLB level) a bit differently.  I really anticipate spending on TOR SP type pitching, as you said, to match 'bullet for bullet'.

It might be interesting to split out potential FA SP targets for analysis in the off-season as separate threads.  

Verlander would be a great short-term get until Grayson is fully ramped up.  I can see kicking the tires and bidding on his services.  If nothing else, the skill set AND time horizon matches really well with the org heading into 2023-2024.  A lot of eggs in one old basket though.

Rodon would take a longer commitment.  And that's fine but impacts flexibility and raising arb costs.  I would love to see this but don't think it'll happen.

I was high on Manaea heading into 2022 as a 2023 option.  He has underwhelmed this year.  None of his pitches profile as above average.  And that seems to be something we've been targeting.  But prior years, Manaea has had a plus changeup and slider.  Is the lefty SP with Barrel% issues and changeup regression fixable by the LF Canyon and Holt can address?  Manaea has given up 21 HR YTD, in OPACY that would have been 12 (the other AL East parks has a less dramatic difference, but still less).  He throws an average sinker FB (vs. a 4-seamer), but it's the 32+% HR/FB ratio on the changeup that's been his Achilles.  He's the type of guy that could be one of those 'fixable' types that Elias has targeted before (Lyles, all those BP arms successes).  A deal similar to Lyles with options and escalators would add value and minimize long-term risks (and I can see Manaea wanting to leave the door open for a bigger pay day too).

Bassitt looks interesting.  The righty's 2022 has some positive outliers, notably his HH%, EV, and GB% rates.  But it's hard to say they are unsustainable too given that quite a few of his career rates are better than league average.  xERA, FIP, etc. seems in line with his ERA.  It's probably related to his solid 6 pitch mix.  And most of them have plus stuff on Statcast even if his velo, spin rate, etc, are lower on the scale.  He looks like a 'savvy' veteran pitcher.  I have to think (given him turning 34 in the off-season) that he'll be looking for a big contract.  If we bid on him, it'll likely need to be 'market value' and a longer-term deal as well.  If they don't like the sticker shock/risk of Rodon, maybe Bassitt represents a better risk/reward target?

 

I truly appreciate your in-depth analysis and break down of each candidate I suggested and moving the discussion into what is certainly a worthwhile area which is risk vs. reward.

IMO all of them even Verlander (not from a performance perspective but given his age and new elbow) carry some level of risk. That's why I feel that the club would be best served to add two from the mix (not necessarily limited to these 4.

I have a question - What are your thoughts about Lopez? Syndergaard? Clevinger? 

Of course my preferenance would be to make any of those guys the second addition/#2. Also, I don't see the Mets letting deGrom go. Also, I saw Schezer's name listed by someone but isn't he eligible to opt out after next year? I also want no parts of Kershaw. To me he has never really been a big game pitcher or I guy I want with the ball in his hands with the season on the line.

[btdart20]

13 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

What are your thoughts about Lopez? Syndergaard? Clevinger? 

Of course my preferenance would be to make any of those guys the second addition/#2. Also, I don't see the Mets letting deGrom go. Also, I saw Schezer's name listed by someone but isn't he eligible to opt out after next year? I also want no parts of Kershaw. To me he has never really been a big game pitcher or I guy I want with the ball in his hands with the season on the line.

I haven't really done any digging on these guys.  Your post got me curious about those others though.  And I glanced at Clevinger a bit related to another thread.  I like him better than Manaea at this point.  But I bet he demands more on the market too.  

Lopez is solid.  Definite improvement over the current staff, but not sure he's a #1.  Probably more 2-high 3 range.  He's a trade target, so a little more difficult than just throwing some cash around.

I know some here like Syndergaard.  I'm not one.  I think his name recognition will overvalue his actual value.  He's not the #1 TOR type of pitcher he once might have been.  Honestly, he's really only had 2 healthy good years early on and is the product of beautiful flowing hair, a cool nickname, and NY media hype.  He's an overpriced #3 or so in my book.

Regarding Kershaw, I wouldn't let the big game issues from the past prevent signing the right guy going forward.  Maybe there's something to it, maybe it's just a small sample size...  Dude has been a machine over the years.  Until his back gave out.  I wouldn't give him a long-term contract for sure.  But he's like deGrom in that it's hard to see LAD/NYM letting those guys go without a competitive bid (at least until performance proves otherwise).  Coming off his worst season of his career in 2021, he signed a $17/1 year deal and has put up basically career norm stats.  Hard to argue with a 30.8 CSW%, a sub-1.00 WHIP and a 7.7 K9-BB9 difference.  He might not have the velo or movement he once did, but (when healthy) he definitely knows how to limit hard contact with his pinpoint control.