Hays and Mountcastle are the Problem

[Gentile4]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s not as much giving up, it’s setting the proper expectations.

Hes not a bad player.  His defense has gotten pretty good at first.  He runs well.  He has power.  But he’s a limited offensive player and the ceiling is only so high.  
 

You don’t keep him around once he starts to get expensive…unless he really changes his approach.

Agree on all of that. It's like Mullins. He's a valuable player who isn't presently effective as a leadoff hitter. Mountcastle's under control for four more seasons, and in the six hole suddenly becomes a much more acceptable presence in the lineup. But hey, this is a team that often finds Urias batting fourth.

[Hallas]

6 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

The wall counts down on homers.  They could still be hitting a lot of doubles.  They could still have better averages, OBP, BB rates, etc…they could still be trying to do a better job of using all fields. 

You'd think.

 

Except OPACY's 1 year park factor for doubles is 28th in the league.

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-factors?type=year&year=2022&batSide=&stat=index_wOBA&condition=All&rolling=no

 

ESPN's park factors show something similar.  That said single year park effects aren't used for a reason so this might not be definitive.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Hallas said:

You'd think.

 

Except OPACY's 1 year park factor for doubles is 28th in the league.

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-factors?type=year&year=2022&batSide=&stat=index_wOBA&condition=All&rolling=no

 

ESPN's park factors show something similar.  That said single year park effects aren't used for a reason so this might not be definitive.

Adley is certainly piling up the doubles.

[ChipTait]

I wish they were both one step faster to home plate yesterday...   

[SilverRocket]

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/ryan-mountcastle-663624?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

Mountcastle's Statcast numbers are so good, and a lot better than last year's, that I'm not ready to give up on him. I can't figure out from Statcast what the difference is results is from, what kind of balls aren't going for hits, but so many numbers look so good that it feels like a solvable problem. When he hits the ball, he hits it hard, and the whiff rate is better than last year's.

[Hallas]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Adley is certainly piling up the doubles.

For whatever reason it's easier to hit doubles from the left side of the plate.   They're middle of the pack for left handed hitters, and Adley hits mostly from the left side (and he's generally worse from the right side anyway.)  My best guess is that the shallow  porch combined with the high wall allows lazy fly balls to bounce off the wall for a double.

Edited August 19, 2022 by Hallas

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Hallas said:

For whatever reason it's easier to hit doubles from the left side of the plate.   They're middle of the pack for left handed hitters, and Adley hits mostly from the left side (and he's generally worse from the right side anyway.)  My best guess is that the shallow  porch combined with the high wall allows lazy fly balls to bounce off the wall for a double.

So Mountcastle and Hays should be using all fields better instead of trying to pull everything.

[Hallas]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

So Mountcastle and Hays should be using all fields better instead of trying to pull everything.

This isn't the spray chart of someone that is pull happy IMO.

 

90% of Mountcastle's problems is with his swing decisions.  When he swings at balls in the zone he hits the ball hard, and he hits the ball to all fields.  He can probably stand to make contact at a better rate, but it's a relatively minor concern in comparison.  But I don't think he's capable of anything more than incremental improvements.  If he can actually reduce his o-swing rate to 30% or less then Elias deserves a lifetime contract for his player development.

Edited August 19, 2022 by Hallas

[Roll Tide]

10 hours ago, Mooreisbetter27 said:

Where are you getting your numbers from?  Henderson has only been at Norfolk part of this year.  He has 32 bb to 66 k's at Norfolk.  His entire minor league career is 140/275 bb/k.  So slightly less than 1/2 ra

Stowers is 57/136 in Norfolk.  His totality of his minor career is 138/328.  So it's closer to what you posted but still quite a bit off.

I'm a little baffled as to where you're getting these numbers.  

The bolded Is wrong 
 

Why are you baffled…..

 

Gunnar, has combined minor league numbers  strike out this year of  104Ks in 368 ABs! I don’t care about the walk rates and didn’t mention them! (Click on the view minors button)

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=hender000gun

Stowers 104Ks in 349 ABs (hit the view minors button)

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/stoweky01.shtml

 

this is what I said ,..never ever mentioned walks

 

Quote

I don’t think we have any ready to fire. Henderson’s K numbers that I saw at AAA are 1 out of 3 (83/247). I’d hate to damage him with a hasty call up. Stowers is 103/345 is nearly as bad!

Gunnar’s is actually 66 strikeouts in 211 ABs if you are looking at AAA only. So it’s under a 30% strikeout rate but still bad IMO.

 

******Stowers stats were updated between posts and I had a mistake in Gunnar’s. But,  was never talking about K to BB ratio. I was merely do K -AB rate. 

Edited August 19, 2022 by Roll Tide

[RZNJ]

Hays and Mountcastle are part of the problem but they can both be part of the solution.  They really are both due for hot streaks.

[PHRESH]

Problem solved? 

 

 

[forphase1]

41 minutes ago, PHRESH said:

Problem solved? 

 

 

Who knows?   But one game is way too sss to make any judgment on, either way. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

45 minutes ago, PHRESH said:

Problem solved? 

 

 

Hoping this is the OH reverse jinx effect. 

[jdwilde1]

11 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Gunnar, has combined minor league numbers  strike out this year of  104Ks in 368 ABs! I don’t care about the walk rates and didn’t mention them! (Click on the view minors button)

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=hender000gun

Stowers 104Ks in 349 ABs (hit the view minors button)

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/stoweky01.shtml

While factually accurate, using ABs instead of PAs is a bit misleading.  PAs is what is used to calculate a batter’s strikeout rate.  Currently, Gunnar has 104Ks in 460 PAs (about a 22.6%).  Stowers had 104Ks in 407 PAs (about 25.6%).  

[baltfan]

7 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Hoping this is the OH reverse jinx effect. 

I have a pretty damn good record on the jinx.  Every time I have remotely doubted Adley  on this board, he has put me in my place.  Hope this ends up being the same, though it won’t change that they both have struggled mightily the last couple months.