Voth/Watkins/Kremer

[Sports Guy]

22 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Does Bradish fit I; with this group. I know his era is elevated because of earlier in the season.

Sort of.  Im comparing these guys to Gonzalez, since they do it in a similar way he did.  Bradish is more of a K/swing and miss guy.

These other 3 have also shown a little more consistency pitching 5+ innings.

[Daddy-O's]

55 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

This. Obviously if the right deal comes, you can make a trade with one of them, but we will need to go at least 7-8 SP deep. Add a TOR starter then follow with Rodriguez, Hall, Bradish, Voth, Kremer, Watkins, Baumann, Zimmermann, and eventually Means when he comes back from the IL. That's some solid depth. Some can be stashed in AAA or as a long reliever in the pen until needed.  

Wells should be competing for a job also

[MCO'sFan]

For me Voth and Kremer are pretty close. I would give the slight edge to Kremer actually just because to me (without looking it up) it seems that he has done it a little bit longer but they are close. I don't trust Watkins at all. I'd be okay with him as a swing guy but I'd rather that there are guys who pass him and he's not back next year at all. 

[spiritof66]

Kremer. I expect him to be in the rotation for a few years (or until injured). Of course, given my record, that probably makes him likely to be pitching in Japan or coaching high schoolers by 2024.
Voth is a possibility for the rotation, but less likely.

[NCRaven]

In the Fangraph's article that Frobby posted in another thread on why FG hates the Orioles (paraphrasing), Bradish was the only Orioles pitcher that they project to be as good or better for the rest of the season.  Doesn't speak to next year, but they seem to like him more than the others, based on that.

[wildcard]

Next year I think Grayson is a lock in the rotation. Because of innings limits of many of the O's starters I think Lyles will be worth the 11m to pick up his option if he continues to pitch well the rest of the season.   Wells, Kremer, Voth and Bradish  all should have good chances of making the rotation.  Means should help the rotation in the 2nd half.   Watkins is more a three inning reliever.  Hall is a wild card.

That is nine deep.   Just about where the O's want to be.

[Bemorewins]

2 hours ago, btdart20 said:

I doubt all three will have a rotation spot next year.  If so, then the off season will be a disappointment to me. 

Voth.  Kremer would be a clear second IMO.  And I just don't trust Watkins.  

It makes me wonder if we sign a TOR SP, will any of these three be trade bait?  Or do we stash arms as insurance?

2 of the 3 sounds about right to me. Add Rodriquez plus a top of the rotation #1 like Verlander or Rodon, and then maybe Bradish. You can take Watkins and Hall (if he’s not converted to a reliever by then and that gives us 7 deep. Means comes back in the second half and that gives us even more depth. You need about 7-9 arms to make it through a season especially if you want to seriously contend. If need be, we can trade excess prospects for a starter at the deadline if need be. Having too many good (not very good or great) is a good problem to have. I’m I’m my 40’s and have been following the team daily since ‘88 and can’t think of a time when the O’s have ever had this type of talent in the org.

 

edit - Oh I forgot about Wells. We really only need 1 top of the rotation starter to be able to go toe to toe with the big boys. And we should most certainly be able to afford the player (even at Verlander money) and still be plenty good with payroll.

 

Edited September 1, 2022 by Bemorewins

[Bemorewins]

8 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Next year I think Grayson is a lock in the rotation. Because of innings limits of many of the O's starters I think Lyles will be worth the 11m to pick up his option if he continues to pitch well the rest of the season.   Wells, Kremer, Voth and Bradish  all should have good chances of making the rotation.  Means should help the rotation in the 2nd half.   Watkins is more a three inning reliever.  Hall is a wild card.

That is nine deep.   Just about where the O's want to be.

The problem with keeping Lyles is he limits our ceiling. He’s not good enough to be placed at the top of a rotation for a team with serious World Series aspirations. Otherwise put, would you trust him in a Game 1 or Game 7? 
 

I know some people say his projected 11m salary next year makes him affordable for the production that he gives you. But IMO a team like us should not pay a guy like him when better option are available. Better pitching will  cost more, but it’s necessary to pay for if you want to win a championship. To not make the World Series a goal going forward starting next year would be to waste what all of this loosing has been for. The stars will not be aligned like they are now forever (extremely low payroll, hardly any arb guys, abundance of high level talent in minors, and whatever years we will have a Adley, Gunnar, etc).

[wildcard]

3 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

The problem with keeping Lyles is he limits our ceiling. He’s not good enough to be placed at the top of a rotation for a team with serious World Series aspirations. Otherwise put, would you trust him in a Game 1 or Game 7? 
 

I know some people say his projected 11m salary next year makes him affordable for the production that he gives you. But IMO a team like us should not pay a guy like him when better option are available. Better pitching will  cost more, but it’s necessary to pay for if you want to win a championship. To not make the World Series a goal going forward starting next year would be to waste what all of this loosing has been for. The stars will not be aligned like they are now forever (extremely low payroll, hardly any arb guys, abundance of high level talent in minors, and whatever years we will have a Adley, Gunnar, etc).

The O's are a development organization.   We can project Grayson as a #1 starter at some point in the near future.   Kremer, Wells and Bradish all have high ceilings with the defense and catching staff that the O's have.   Lyles is not an ace but he is a veteran innings eater that fit well with this club.   It will be hard to get a better starter without committing to a long term contract for an aging starter.     That is why Lyles fits on a one year contract.

Hall has a high ceiling if he can find his control.  Voth is showing to have the effectiveness to be a good major league starter.   Who knows how long it will take Means to reach his previous level if he does at all.

Come the deadline next year Lyles and Means could be trade chips depending of the development of the younger starters and the pitching limits they will be under.  Elias will continue to trade veterans for prospects as he did this season.

I would not write off these starters as not being good enough to win a World Series. Palmer, McNally, Barber and Bunker were not considered locks until the proved they could do it.

[Bemorewins]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The O's are a development organization.   We can project Grayson as a #1 starter at some point in the near future.   Kremer, Wells and Bradish all have high ceilings with the defense and catching staff that the O's have.   Lyles is not an ace but he is a veteran innings eater that fit well with this club.   It will be hard to get a better starter without committing to a long term contract for an aging starter.     That is why Lyles fits on a one year contract.

Hall has a high ceiling if he can find his control.  Voth is showing to have the effectiveness to be a good major league starter.   Who knows how long it will take Means to reach his previous level if he does at all.

Come the deadline next year Lyles and Means could be trade chips depending of the development of the younger starters and the pitching limits they will be under.  Elias will continue to trade veterans for prospects as he did this season.

I would not write off these starters as not being good enough to win a World Series. Palmer, McNally, Barber and Bunker were not considered locks until the proved they could do it.

I wasn’t saying that the young starters aren’t good enough. They have impressed me plenty throughout the season. I was saying that Lyles (while perfect for this season and it’s goals would not be good for next year’s team). 
 

Now I do disagree with your point of the O’s having to rely solely on our own guys or in your words being “a development organization”. Why can’t we buy the right guy in the right circumstance when it makes sense? 
 

Next year it makes sense to buy a #1. We have a projected 36 mil payroll. Even if you add a 40 mil per year contract for say a Verlander for 2/3 years gives us a payroll under 80 mil. That is almost 100 mil lower than we had starting out 2018.

If we want to win a World Series I would hate to pin all our hopes and put all of that pressure on Grayson in year 1.

[wildcard]

7 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I wasn’t saying that the young starters aren’t good enough. They have impressed me plenty throughout the season. I was saying that Lyles (while perfect for this season and it’s goals would not be good for next year’s team). 
 

Now I do disagree with your point of the O’s having to rely solely on our own guys or in your words being “a development organization”. Why can’t we buy the right guy in the right circumstance when it makes sense? 
 

Next year it makes sense to buy a #1. We have a projected 36 mil payroll. Even if you add a 40 mil per year contract for say a Verlander for 2/3 years gives us a payroll under 80 mil. That is almost 100 mil lower than we had starting out 2018.

If we want to win a World Series I would hate to pin all our hopes and put all of that pressure on Grayson in year 1.

I would be happy for the O's to add better talent than what they have from outside teh organization.   But spending big money of Verlander is looking backwards.  He will be 40 next year.  Though he has a new elbow the rest of him is aging.  Counting on him to stay healthy especially in the playoffs is a big risk.

I think Elias will look for better.  And if he doesn't see better he will keep Lyles to provide innings at the current effectiveness he is showing.

Edited September 1, 2022 by wildcard

[LA2]

54 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The O's are a development organization.   We can project Grayson as a #1 starter at some point in the near future.   Kremer, Wells and Bradish all have high ceilings with the defense and catching staff that the O's have.   Lyles is not an ace but he is a veteran innings eater that fit well with this club.   It will be hard to get a better starter without committing to a long term contract for an aging starter.     That is why Lyles fits on a one year contract.

Hall has a high ceiling if he can find his control.  Voth is showing to have the effectiveness to be a good major league starter.   Who knows how long it will take Means to reach his previous level if he does at all.

Come the deadline next year Lyles and Means could be trade chips depending of the development of the younger starters and the pitching limits they will be under.  Elias will continue to trade veterans for prospects as he did this season.

I would not write off these starters as not being good enough to win a World Series. Palmer, McNally, Barber and Bunker were not considered locks until the proved they could do it.

Very minor quibble: Steve Barber, though a leading AL pitcher midway thru the season, got injured and was not part of the WS team. That's why it was so important that the actually sore-armed Bunker deliver (one season after his great 19-5 rookie season), which he did. As did the jokester Moe Drabowsky.

[Bemorewins]

37 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I would be happy for the O's to add better talent than what they have from outside teh organization.   But spending big money of Verlander is looking backwards.  He will be 40 next year.  Though he has a new elbow the rest of him is aging.  Counting on him to stay healthy especially in the playoffs is a big risk.

I think Elias will look for better.  And if he doesn't see better he will keep Lyles to provide innings at the current effectiveness he is showing.

I agree that Verlander comes with some risk (age, new elbow) but the reward of adding a Cy Young caliber pitcher with tremendous post season experience and success is also substantial. I think one of the things that makes Verlander attractive is that he can be had on a shorter term contract which will be done before we have to pay any of our own guys like Adley, Gunnar, Holiday, etc.

 

I’m not saying that we should put all over our eggs in the Verlander basket because they are a few guys available in free agency that we can put at the top of our rotation like a Rodon who would be a great puzzle piece for our championship picture. 
 

Lyles is a 4/5 type picture on a championship contending team. IMO we already have guys of his caliber, we need to use our resources to acquire better. 
 

In short, IMO we don’t need more 3/4/5 types. What we need is a bonafide #1.

[Chelsea_Phil]

Verlander’s post-season record is pretty abysmal.  I say a strong pass on him.

[RZNJ]

13 minutes ago, Chelsea_Phil said:

Verlander’s post-season record is pretty abysmal.  I say a strong pass on him.

I'll take my chances.