Would you offer a 10/$50 mm deal right now to any of these MiL players?

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Right, so Fantex bet he’d make at least $49 mm.  So far, he hasn’t.  He still might, but with the time value of money, paying Schoop $4.9 mm up front probably was a losing investment.  

Their business model involved selling shares in these investments right?

So if they sold the shares for enough they could have ended up doing OK and the investors further along in the process would instead have lost the money.

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, FlaO'sFan said:

Thanks, those numbers make much more sense and ring a bell with me now. I think the 90-100 mill was a number that other posters on the Baltimore Sun O's board (that I posted on back then) were throwing around for maybe the high end of his earning potential. At the time I always wondered how it would turn out for Jonathan but had forgotten about it for awhile now, so I appreciate the information.

You might have been thinking about this thread.   After Schoop’s excellent 2017 season, I asked how much people would be willing to pay Schoop on a 6-year deal (which would have covered his last two Arb years and four FA seasons).  93% of the people who responded said they’d pay him at least $80 mm.   More than half would have paid him $90 mm+.   It’s a fun discussion to re-read and shows how dangerous these long term bets can be.  

Edited September 13, 2022 by Frobby

[Can_of_corn]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

You might have been thinking about this thread.   After Schoop’s excellent 2017 season, I asked how much people would be willing to pay Schoop on a 6-year deal (which would have covered his last two Arb years and four FA seasons).  93% of the people who responded said they’d pay him at least $80 mm.   More than half would have paid him $90 mm+.   It’s a fun discussion to re-read and shows how dangerous these long term bets can be.  

Ohh I can still vote.

[FlaO'sFan]

22 minutes ago, Frobby said:

You might have been thinking about this thread.   After Schoop’s excellent 2017 season, I asked how much people would be willing to pay Schoop on a 6-year deal (which would have covered his last two Arb years and four FA seasons).  93% of the people who responded said they’d pay him at least $80 mm.   More than half would have paid him $90 mm+.   It’s a fun discussion to re-read and shows how dangerous these long term bets can be.  

I think you are right, Frobby. Reading that thread it seems familiar to me. I had not heard of that kind of deal before with a player and I remember trying to think of all the possibilities and how it might work out for both the company and the player. Looking back, and seeing how it was only 10% for almost 5 mill up front, I think it was a deal without much risk for Jonathan (unless he became an absolute superstar), especially if he needed the money then. Thanks for linking that, it was indeed fun to read.

Edited September 13, 2022 by FlaO'sFan

[Orioles Jim]

On 9/3/2022 at 5:27 PM, Ripken said:

Cowser, Holliday, GrayRod

This.

[Frobby]

On 9/13/2022 at 8:57 AM, Frobby said:

Chances are that out of these 7 players, no more than two of them will earn $50 mm playing baseball going year-by-year. But which two?  That’s a crapshoot.   

On 9/13/2022 at 12:59 PM, Frobby said:

I may try to develop some historical data relevant to these types of decisions.  

OK, so I looked at all the players who debuted between 2009 and 2013 to see how much money they made in the ten years after they debuted.   That’s 1,082 players.   Of that group, I was able to identify 60 who made $50 mm+ in their first ten years.   About 12 a year.   There could be a few I missed, but hopefully not many.

Of the 60, 42 of them have been worth 20+ rWAR, 13 between 16-20 WAR, and 5 between 10-15 WAR. (These are totals for their entire careers to date, not just their first ten years.)   I counted 17 players who earned 20+ rWAR but earned under $50 mm in their first ten years.   So, I think it’s right to say that if you are offering a player 10/$50 mm before they’ve played in a major league game, you’d better think they have at least a 50/50 shot at being a 20 WAR player, and a near lock to be a 12+ WAR player.  (In the time period I looked at, the lowest WAR value of any player earning $50 mm plus was Nick Castellanos, who earned $71 mm while producing 11.9 rWAR over ten years).  

Needless to say, there were players who earned a lot more than $50 mm in their first ten years.  In the period I looked at, Nolan Arenado led the pack at $166.5 mm, topping Mike Trout’s $153 mm.  Others who topped $100 mm were Anthony Rendon $140 mm, Gerrit Cole $134 mm, Jason Heyward $115 mm, Bryce Harper $115 mm, Manny Machado $110 mm and Steven Strasburg $109 mm.  The list of 60 breaks down like this:

8 - 100 mm+
6 - $90-99 mm

8 - $80-89 mm

10 - $70-79 mm

14 - $60-69 mm

14 - $50-59 mm