The Shift is Being Banned - How Does This Help/Hurt the O's?

[RZNJ]

All I know is that his bad for Roughned Odor's career if it wasn't in enough trouble already.   This decreases the need for an Odor type of 2B with the cannon arm.

[InsideCoroner]

19 hours ago, nvpacchi said:

Jayson Stark did an article about shifts last year, and how it accounted for another 4.8k outs! That seems extreme, but hey the data is probably there to back it up, so taking flyers on guys in the mold of Eddie Rosario, and Seth Brown as platoon bats could be an interesting strategy.

If that number is close to being accurate, it will have a huge impact. Adding 4,800 hits to last year’s MLB totals would have raised the overall batting average from .244 to .273. 

[RZNJ]

12 minutes ago, InsideCoroner said:

If that number is close to being accurate, it will have a huge impact. Adding 4,800 hits to last year’s MLB totals would have raised the overall batting average from .244 to .273. 

Seems extreme but we see hits taken away every game so I'm not surprised.   A lot of LH hitters will be very happy.   

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Just Regular said:

Mateo and Mullins are posting distinctive raw SB totals this season.

If the rules have their effect and they go up a lot in general, I do wonder how far up the Vince Coleman-Willie McGee ladder their numbers could go.

I think a lot of brain cells this offseason will go into protecting player health with large SB attempt volume.    Mateo and Mullins aren't star hitters where the Stop Sign goes up because the Injury Risk is greater than the value of any 90 feet any given day.

Maybe you play 140 games not 155 to keep legs fresh, etc.

Mateo 30/8 SB/CS - the August/September splits are 4/4 and 2/0 so far

Mullins 30/9 SB/CS - they are 7/2 and 1/1

I don't know if this is completely 1:1, but in 2021 they tried the 2 pickoff rule in low A ball and there were 1.23 steals per game.  In 2019 in A ball (before the purge and restructuring) there were 0.83 steals per game in A ball.  That's nearly a 50% increase.

I have no idea if this will be duplicated in the majors.  In 2022 so far we're seeing 0.51 steals/game.  A 47% increase would be 0.75.  The highest mark in any of our lifetimes is the 0.85 in 1987.  So it's plausible we could see some totals not approached since the 80s.  Although back then there were little or no analytics to tell us that the cost of a CS is very high and the break-even point in most situations is a success rate of nearly 75%.

The highest SB mark under the modern definition is 1.48/game in 1900.  There were three steals/game in 1887, but back then the definition included things like going from first to third on a single. I think I'm good saying those marks are safe.

Edited September 10, 2022 by DrungoHazewood

[DrungoHazewood]

43 minutes ago, InsideCoroner said:

If that number is close to being accurate, it will have a huge impact. Adding 4,800 hits to last year’s MLB totals would have raised the overall batting average from .244 to .273. 

I doubt that's going to be anything like the impact.  First, they'll keep shifting to the greatest extent possible under the new rules, with an outfielder playing rover and the shortstop or second baseman playing almost up the middle.  So that probably cuts half or more the effectiveness compared to playing straight up.  But also I have a hard time believing a league that strikes out once per half inning is going to hit .273.

But I suppose we'll see.

Edited September 10, 2022 by DrungoHazewood

[pastorfan]

It will be interesting to see how this affects player evaluations. Perhaps infielders with more range become even more valuable and certain hitters see their value jump. 

[spiritof66]

Unfortunate timing for Chris Davis. With the anti-shift rule in place, he might have hit .200 his last few years,

[spiritof66]

The rule changes will have some pretty obvious, direct effects. But I believe they will create a lot of indirect consequences, some unintended, that can't be foreseen or, even if they can, can't be accurately assessed now, let alone quantified. 

For example, the limitation on shifting will help some pull hitters, especially lefties. Which hitters will helped, and how much? Will it, as seems logical, lead some hitters to try to pull the ball more? Will being more pull-conscious make some hitter in that group more productive and some less productive, and if so who will be in which group? Will pitchers try to work outside (arm-side or glove-side or both) more? If so, to everyone or just selected pull hitters? If so, how will that adjustment affect each pitcher? I don't think you can predict that kind of stuff until things play out for a while.

The limit on pick-off throws will help players and teams that emphasize the running game, both in stealing bases and in advancing on hits, fly balls, ground balls, wild pitches, passed balls, bad throws, etc. But how much difference will it make? Will it help fast guys more-or-less equally, or will some get more of a boost than others? (The thought of Odor getting more aggressive on the bases is a little unsettling, but that should be another team's problem.) Will a pitcher with an effective move to first be impaired more or less than a pitcher with an average move? I think it's likely that most teams will stick with fast guys already in the lineup until they get a better handle on how much their value is increased by the new rule. I don't know how long that will take, but I'd guess most or all of a season.

The Orioles have speed at several positions, but Mateo is their only elite sprinter. (Mateo, McKenna, Henderson and Brett Philips are in Baseball Savant's top 100, and Mullins is 109.)  https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sprint_speed_leaderboard I'd like to see the Orioles (subject to being asked to make a deal that's too rich to be turned down) go into spring training with a planned infield of Mountcastle, Westberg at second, Mateo at SS, Henderson at 3B, and Urias on the bench, with Santander and/or Stowers ready to play some 1B.

[DrungoHazewood]

Here are some observations about the rules changes and their pilot projects in the minors.

On steals, they say the minors are seeing about as many steals in 2022 as they saw stolen base attempts in 2019, indicating something like a 25% increase in steals. 

I didn't think about this, but the pitch clock can help runners, too.  If you know the pitch has to come at the 20 second mark you can often jump the gun at 19 seconds knowing the pitch has to come right now or it's a ball.  You don't even have to wait to see if the pitcher is pitching.  So, actually, with runners on it would benefit the pitcher to pitch even faster so the runner can't time him.

[Beysbol]

I'm definitely in favor of getting rid of the shift. I never liked the the shift in the first place. 

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Beysbol said:

I'm definitely in favor of getting rid of the shift. I never liked the the shift in the first place. 

Why not?

Why shouldn't the defense take advantage of batter tendencies?

[Three Run Homer]

10 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Yes, and yes.

I don't like your strategy, it negatively impacts me and it's too inconvenient to work around, so please make it illegal.

Shifts disproportionately affect left handed hitters.  You can't shift as much against RHH because the throw from short LF to first base is too long.   They need to ban the shift before left handed major league baseball players become extinct.  

[btdart20]

34 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

Shifts disproportionately affect left handed hitters.  You can't shift as much against RHH because the throw from short LF to first base is too long.   They need to ban the shift before left handed major league baseball players become extinct.  

Being a LHH has been an advantage since they put 1B on the right side of the field.  Even when the shortstop was basically a roving short outfielder (very much like today’s shift).  They eventually shifted that player to the left side of the infield as an adjustment to hitters.

However, LHH are still disproportionately among the greats not because they hit grounders to the right side.  But because of the RHP vs LHH advantage and the shorter distance to 1B from the box.

[Sports Guy]

Considering none of our hitters seemingly are willing to go the other way, this probably helps a lot.

[DrungoHazewood]

14 hours ago, Three Run Homer said:

Shifts disproportionately affect left handed hitters.  You can't shift as much against RHH because the throw from short LF to first base is too long.   They need to ban the shift before left handed major league baseball players become extinct.  

There are 27 LH/SH MLBers with an OPS+ of 120 or more this year (min 300 PAs).

There are 38 righties.  Despite there being about twice as many righties.

Weird that they're in danger of going extinct when there are a larger percentage of good LHH with shifting legal.