After Historic 2022 - Should The O's Play Prospects Next Year or Acquire Players Who Will "Block" Them?

[MCO'sFan]

Here is a bit of a catch 22 for the 2023 season. We have several good to solid position player prospects who are either MLB ready or  close to MLB ready (meaning at the higher levels) AAA: Ortiz, Westburg, Cowser, AA: Mayo, Norby, Hernaiz. I would think the AAA guys are in line for MLB debuts in 23 and perhaps Norby as well. Do you give them a shot next year or do you bring in someone as a FA or via trade who "blocks" them? And by blocks them, I mean players who are legit MLB players who will require significant commitment in payroll and or years to acquire.

Frankly I wouldn't be surprised and maybe even expect a little regression next year as this year has been an outlier as far as the number of wins improvement over last year. I think I would sign two pitchers (1 tier one and one tier 2) and maybe a corner OF and then play prospects as much as possible next year.

[Sports Guy]

I wrote an article for ESR recently that discussed the idea that Elias and this ownership group can’t do what Duq, Buck and PA did after 2012 and 2014.  They did barely anything to add to those teams.  They seemingly made assumptions and they didn’t capitalize on those teams.

Sitting on your hands and doing very little this offseason will almost guarantee a similar outcome to this year.  Good season but not good enough.

You obviously don’t block your top young guys but you need a lot more talent on this team.

[OriolesMagic83]

This offseason is as much on ownership as on Elias.  The O's failure after getting to the playoffs in 2012-2016 to add meaningful free agents was missing a gold opportunity.  I'm not expecting a $200 million payroll, but the O's need to do more than add the Francos, Iglesiases, and Lyles of baseball.

[Frobby]

20 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I wrote an article for ESR recently that discussed the idea that Elias and this ownership group can’t do what Duq, Buck and PA did after 2012 and 2014.  They did barely anything to add to those teams.  They seemingly made assumptions and they didn’t capitalize on those teams.

Sitting on your hands and doing very little this offseason will almost guarantee a similar outcome to this year.  Good season but not good enough.

You obviously don’t block your top young guys but you need a lot more talent on this team.

Moreover, there’s no reason why they can’t make significant moves, given the position they’re in payroll-wise.   Elias has said he expects to start spending some money to supplement the team, so I expect that’s going to happen.  It will be fascinating to see where he decides to spend money.  I think it’s pretty much guaranteed we’ll see efforts to upgrade the pitching.   What they’ll do on offense is less clear.  

[MCO'sFan]

20 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I wrote an article for ESR recently that discussed the idea that Elias and this ownership group can’t do what Duq, Buck and PA did after 2012 and 2014.  They did barely anything to add to those teams.  They seemingly made assumptions and they didn’t capitalize on those teams.

Sitting on your hands and doing very little this offseason will almost guarantee a similar outcome to this year.  Good season but not good enough.

You obviously don’t block your top young guys but you need a lot more talent on this team.

Who would you consider to be the position prospects that you wouldn't block? To me, for 2023 it's Henderson, Westburg and Cowser.  

[MCO'sFan]

3 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

This offseason is as much on ownership as on Elias.  The O's failure after getting to the playoffs in 2012-2016 to add meaningful free agents was missing a gold opportunity.  I'm not expecting a $200 million payroll, but the O's need to do more than add the Francos, Iglesiases, and Lyles of baseball.

They certainly added talent early in that window. You can't knock them for that. The failure was poor decision on who to keep and who to get rid of and then holding on too long when they could have retooled instead of having to completely rebuild. These two situations are apples and oranges. Those were veteran laiden teams and this is a very young team. There were no prospects in the system that were ready to make an impact on the MLB team.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, MCO'sFan said:

Who would you consider to be the position prospects that you wouldn't block? To me, for 2023 it's Henderson, Westburg and Cowser.  

If it were up to me, our IF would be Mountcastle at first (assuming we don’t trade him) and some kind of combo of Ortiz, Westburg and Henderson.

The OF is very unclear to me as I would look to make a lot of moves out there. 
 

I would bring in 1-2 bats from outside the organization for DH and the OF.

Cowser’s struggles in AAA have made me more hesitant to want to start him in the majors on OD but he should still be up within a few months.  Otoh, if he goes to ST and looks ready because of what he did in the offseason, I’m ok with that too.

I think we need to add 2 legit starting pitchers and one upper echelon BP arm.

So, 4-5 players from outside the organization and elevating 3 or more top prospects.  

[MCO'sFan]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Moreover, there’s no reason why they can’t make significant moves, given the position they’re in payroll-wise.   Elias has said he expects to start spending some money to supplement the team, so I expect that’s going to happen.  It will be fascinating to see where he decides to spend money.  I think it’s pretty much guaranteed we’ll see efforts to upgrade the pitching.   What they’ll do on offense is less clear.  

This is my question and what I want to hear folk's opinion. What would you do or like to see? I would like to add an OF or maybe a 1B if I can move RM. I don't want a DH type nor do I want to block Westburg, Cowser and perhaps one or two more. I am very interested in Norby and would like to see him get some time at 1B moving forward. 

[OriolesMagic83]

2 minutes ago, MCO'sFan said:

They certainly added talent early in that window. You can't knock them for that. The failure was poor decision on who to keep and who to get rid of and then holding on too long when they could have retooled instead of having to completely rebuild. These two situations are apples and oranges. Those were veteran laiden teams and this is a very young team. There were no prospects in the system that were ready to make an impact on the MLB team.

I just think that after 2014 the O's could have made some moves to go for it.  Signing Delmon Young and trading for Travis Snider were underwhelming moves.  Always wonder if things would have turned out different if the O's had resigned Cruz, maybe making them decline signing Davis as a free agent. 

[MCO'sFan]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

If it were up to me, our IF would be Mountcastle at first (assuming we don’t trade him) and some kind of combo of Ortiz, Westburg and Henderson.

The OF is very unclear to me as I would look to make a lot of moves out there. 
 

I would bring in 1-2 bats from outside the organization for DH and the OF.

Cowser’s struggles in AAA have made me more hesitant to want to start him in the majors on OD but he should still be up within a few months.  Otoh, if he goes to ST and looks ready because of what he did in the offseason, I’m ok with that too.

I think we need to add 2 legit starting pitchers and one upper echelon BP arm.

So, 4-5 players from outside the organization and elevating 3 or more top prospects.  

I am very much in agreement on all of this. I really want to see what Westburg can do if given the lionshare of PT at 2B. I think that Ortiz starts at AAA but gets a call up if he hits early. But, I would like to see an upgrade at 1B if possible. I would like to see an Infield of an upgrade at 1B, Westburg at 2B, Mateo at SS (until Ortiz is up) and Gunner at 3B. I would like to see an upgrade in LF. 

[OriolesMagic83]

4 minutes ago, MCO'sFan said:

This is my question and what I want to hear folk's opinion. What would you do or like to see? I would like to add an OF or maybe a 1B if I can move RM. I don't want a DH type nor do I want to block Westburg, Cowser and perhaps one or two more. I am very interested in Norby and would like to see him get some time at 1B moving forward. 

IMO, the O's need to upgrade either LF (Hays) or 1B (Mountcastle).  The trade value of either of those players seems low.  It would be huge to add a player with say a .350 OBP in either LF or 1B.  Obviously Cowser should be in the majors at some point in 2023.  Santander is not the best defensive OF, but he is at least the type of hitter the O's need, so keeping Santander over Hays makes sense.  As a long time Hays supporter, this is hard for me to say, but Hays makes the O's offense worse, not better. 

[Frobby]

29 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

If it were up to me, our IF would be Mountcastle at first (assuming we don’t trade him) and some kind of combo of Ortiz, Westburg and Henderson.

The OF is very unclear to me as I would look to make a lot of moves out there. 
 

It’s interesting. A year ago I would have said outfield was a strength.  I might have even said that at the end of the first half of this season.  

[wildcard]

I have been a big supporter of Mateo at SS.   And I liked that his offense came around in July and August  but  I am disappointed with his offense is Sept so far.   He could be leaving an opening for Gunnar to be the starting SS next season.

[Jim'sKid26]

The pitching is rather obvious. The O's need at least 2  SPs and one of those needs to be Elite. I am less certain about a BP arm and would put it lower on the list.

Infield:

3B: If this is where Gunnar is best utilized then you are set. I'm convinced he can be elite defensively at 3B, not convinced he would be elite at SS.

SS: The easy answer is to leave Mateo here. SG would probably say that's a lazy answer though. I'd like to see Mateo traded. The free agent market next year is full of Elite SS. Trea Turner appeals to me for his flexibility. He'd be my primary target. If Ortiz is ready soon you can move Turner to CF or 2B. 

2B: If Westburg is ready, great. If not then Urias. 

Utility: See 2B, whichever guy you don't start at 2B plays here.

1B: Tough call on Mountcastle. I'd try to upgrade here. Might be a place to upgrade at the deadline if Mounty is not cutting it offensively.

Outfield:

RF: This is the off season to trade Sandander. I think you give Stowers a shot here in 2023.

CF: If you can get Turner as a FA then trading Mullins is easier. I think they missed the "trade high" opportunity last offseason. Cowser is heir apparent here.

LF: Need a LH bat to move Hayes to 4th OF status. 

DH: Upgrade here is needed when Adley is catching.

[forphase1]

As I see it we have 4 main areas to address.

1) we need a real TOR starter or two.  Maybe Grod can fill one of those spots, but I'm not counting on it until it happens 

2) I love Mountcastle.  But I'm not sure we can really rely on him.   Just too bloody inconsistent.  When he's on he can carry a team.   But those times are too few and far between.   We need a real masher and 1st base is often where you can find one. No real options in the high minors.

3) outfield.  See #2, but apply to Hays as well.   I'd rather have someone more solid and consistent.  We've got some talent in the minors here,  but not sure any are close enough to ready. 

4) backup catcher.  With Adley needing time off and DHing, our backup will be playing 1/4 to 1/3 of our games.   That's plenty to justify spending on a good one. 

Otherwise I go with what we got or will have soon.   Between Henderson, Urias, Ortiz, Westbury and Mateo, we can get the infield resolved.