Vavra and Stowers 2023

[Bahama O's Fan]

What do you predict their roles will be? What should they be? Starters? Platoon players? Bench players? Start at AAA? Trade bait?

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

What do you predict their roles will be? What should they be? Starters? Platoon players? Bench players? Start at AAA? Trade bait?

I think Stowers will be a starting RF/DH.   I am still trying to gauge Vavra.   He looks like a guy who can hit for a high OBP with little power that leads to a low OPS.   I don't have a real good feel for his defense yet.  He was  supposed to have an average arm and average speed.   But so far he looks a little faster than average.

Vavra is probably in line to be a bench player with options that allow him to be on the shuttle at times.

[cheecks]

Vavra seems like a decent bench/infield utility guy.

Not a fan of Stowers at all. Too undisciplined as a hitter. Seems to swing and miss on every low breaking ball he should be just taking. I am hopeful Colton Cowser will be the next guy to slot in every day in the OF.

 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, cheecks said:

Vavra seems like a decent bench/infield utility guy.

Not a fan of Stowers at all. Too undisciplined as a hitter. Seems to swing and miss on every low breaking ball he should be just taking. I am hopeful Colton Cowser will be the next guy to slot in every day in the OF.

 

Stowers will K a lot..but he will also walk a lot.  He’s not undisciplined.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

I think Stowers will be a starting RF/DH.   I am still trying to gauge Vavra.   He looks like a guy who can hit for a high OBP with little power that leads to a low OPS.   I don't have a real good feel for his defense yet.  He was  supposed to have an average arm and average speed.   But so far he looks a little faster than average.

Vavra is probably in line to be a bench player with options that allow him to be on the shuttle at times.

I think Vavra has a little more power than we’ve seen from him so far.  Right now his line is .279/.363/.338 (.059 ISO)   In the minors, he was at .306/.410/.468 (.162 ISO).    He’s not going to hit a ton of homers but we’re going to see plenty of extra base hits from him I think.  He’s spent his early days in the majors adjusting to major league pitching and just making sure he gets the bat on the ball and lays off pitches out of the zone. Once he gets more comfortable I think he’ll drive the ball more.  Overall, I’m pleased how his BA/OBP skills are translating.  Like Adley and Gunnar, he knows the strike zone and Is a pleasure to watch at the plate.  He makes the pitcher earn it.  

It’s hard for me to say what his role will be, and it may change as the year goes along.  But, I think he’ll be a 300-400 AB guy who moves around between 2B, OF and DH.   And, a useful pinch hitter when he’s not in the starting lineup.  

Stowers’ role depends who else is on the team.  If Santander, Hays and Mullins all remain, I think Stowers will be the primary fourth OF and sometimes DH.  It’s been suggested to get him some reps at 1B and I think that’s a good idea.  If an OF is traded away, Stowers may be a regular.  If we upgrade the OF, he may play a little less.  

I like both these players and don’t see either as a cornerstone piece, but guys who can play 2/3 or 3/4 of the time in a variety of roles and help the team.  


 

[NCRaven]

I like both.  If Hays doesn’t rebound, Stowers becomes a bigger option.  Vavra has some appeal, but does he have more than Westburg, Ortiz, or Mateo?  Might not be an issue to start 23, but could become one later with other prospect promotions.

[RZNJ]

Just now, NCRaven said:

I like both.  If Hays doesn’t rebound, Stowers becomes a bigger option.  Vavra has some appeal, but does he have more than Westburg, Ortiz, or Mateo?  Might not be an issue to start 23, but could become one later with other prospect promotions.

Vavra is most likley a utility guy like Frobby said but I could see him taking the LF job and running with it if the opportunity comes along.   He's got the speed to cover the ground even though his arm is probably a little short.   He's been turning on the ball a little more lately.   

[jdwilde1]

Stowers - I expect him to be a productive starter for several years based on his sustained minor league success, his ability to walk, and how hard he hits the ball.  I also have been impressed by his ability to hit to the opposite field.  He has some swing and miss, but Aaron Judge struck out 208 times in a year he finished second in the MVP voting , and Mike Trout struck out 184 times in an MVP season. I am not comparing Stowers to those guys, but just pointing out that players can be very productive despite high Ks.

 

Vavra - Not sure yet, but his best skill set (not making outs) is the most important aspect of scoring runs.  So, we need to keep in mind that OPS isn’t the best way to look at his value as a hitter.  Here’s a segment from a 2015 Fangraphs’ article comparing the value of OBP and SLG:

OBP is significantly more valuable than SLG — which is why we use wOBA/wRC+ and not OPS/OPS+ around here, since linear weights models correct that issue — but SLG does matter, and low-OBP sluggers can be effective offensive performers even while they make a lot of outs. 
 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mark-trumbo-and-the-relative-value-of-obp-and-slg/

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, jdwilde1 said:

 

Vavra - Not sure yet, but his best skill set (not making outs) is the most important aspect of scoring runs.  So, we need to keep in mind that OPS isn’t the best way to look at his value as a hitter.  Here’s a segment from a 2015 Fangraphs’ article comparing the value of OBP and SLG:

OBP is significantly more valuable than SLG — which is why we use wOBA/wRC+ and not OPS/OPS+ around here, since linear weights models correct that issue — but SLG does matter, and low-OBP sluggers can be effective offensive performers even while they make a lot of outs. 
 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mark-trumbo-and-the-relative-value-of-obp-and-slg/

Fine, so let’s look at wOBA (.322) and wRC+ (105).   Those are okay, nothing spectacular.  His 102 OPS+ is not very different from his 105 wRC+.   

[Aristotelian]

I'm very unimpressed with Stowers defense and I think that's why he has yet to play every day. There was a time when we would hide a poor defender in the outfield (Trumbo, Mancini, Delmon etc) but I think the organization is recognizing the value of defense. I don't see how he fits except as DH or 1B and I'm not convinced he hits enough.

Vavra is more interesting to me. Maybe not as much upside but more versatility. I love his hitting approach, kind of a lefty version of Urias '21. I would be tempted to see what he can do at 1B even though we would lose Mountcastle's power. It seems Hyde loves to mix and match to optimize platoon matchups and Vavra's versatility plays into that approach.

Alternatively, both could be trade bait.

 

[wildcard]

5 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Vavra is most likley a utility guy like Frobby said but I could see him taking the LF job and running with it if the opportunity comes along.   He's got the speed to cover the ground even though his arm is probably a little short.   He's been turning on the ball a little more lately.   

Interested to see why you think he has the speed to cover LF in Camden.    His speed has been rated average by MLB Pipeline.   I think it takes more than average speed to cover LF at Camden.   Interested in your take.

[Brooks The Great]

Hyde showing one of his weaknesses as a manager by continuing to treat Stowers as a platoon guy, when Stowers has proven to be a solid hitter against lefties in the minors.

I'd rather have Vavra in there against a tough lefty than Odor. At least Vavra will work the count better than Odor. It's a joke that Odor continues to get starts.

Another poor lineup by Hyde today. Every game is must-win, but Hyde insists on handicapping his team.

[RZNJ]

46 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Interested to see why you think he has the speed to cover LF in Camden.    His speed has been rated average by MLB Pipeline.   I think it takes more than average speed to cover LF at Camden.   Interested in your take.

He's got average speed.   That doesn't make him a liability in LF.   I'd have to see the numbers on his defense in LF which I'm sure are very SSS.   It's not just speed but the jumps.   He appears to move well from when I've seen him but I do see that his speed is rated as average.   In the end, it comes down to how much ground he covers.    Is he going to cover more ground than Hays, Santander, Stowers, or even Cowser?    Do you know the answer?

[wildcard]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

He's got average speed.   That doesn't make him a liability in LF.   I'd have to see the numbers on his defense in LF which I'm sure are very SSS.   It's not just speed but the jumps.   He appears to move well from when I've seen him but I do see that his speed is rated as average.   In the end, it comes down to how much ground he covers.    Is he going to cover more ground than Hays, Santander, Stowers, or even Cowser?    Do you know the answer?

I can only go by what I see and the rating I have seen.   Hays and Cowser are 55.  Vavra, Stowers and Santander are 50.   That kind of matches what I have seen so far.   

I do think it takes at least a 55 to cover left at Camden.   And yes Hays 55 speed is when he is healthy.  When he is playing hurt he can be less.

I have not seen Vavra enough to know if his speed is greater than average.   Jury is still out on that for me.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I can only go by what I see and the rating I have seen.   Hays and Cowser are 55.  Vavra, Stowers and Santander are 50.   That kind of matches what I have seen so far.   

I do think it takes at least a 55 to cover left at Camden.   And yes Hays 55 speed is when he is healthy.  When he is playing hurt he can be less.

I have not seen Vavra enough to know if his speed is greater than average.   Jury is still out on that for me.

Sprint speeds for 2022:

Hays 27.8

Vavra 27.3

Stowers 26.9

Santander 26.4