"If he could hit, we couldn't afford him."

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Ripken said:

...and then Holliday.

Ooops, I meant Holliday when I typed Henderson.  

[ShoelesJoe]

Mateo’s splits indicate that he was probably hurt by the new Camden Yards dimensions more than any other player. His BA was down 150 points at home, his OB% was down 80 points, and slugging was off by 110 points. 
 

When playing on the road Mateo was essentially Bobby Witt with GG defense. That’s a pretty valuable player. 

[Frobby]

27 minutes ago, ShoelesJoe said:

Mateo’s splits indicate that he was probably hurt by the new Camden Yards dimensions more than any other player. His BA was down 150 points at home, his OB% was down 80 points, and slugging was off by 110 points. 
 

When playing on the road Mateo was essentially Bobby Witt with GG defense. That’s a pretty valuable player. 

You know, his extreme H/R splits are a very interesting fact that I was completely unaware of before.  I can’t say that it makes any sense to me that the new dimensions hurt Mateo more than other players, because I really don’t remember many balls he hit where the new dimensions came into play.  But maybe my memory is way off 

[orioles22]

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I feel this, too.  

I think he can be our SS next year but it's going to be hard to keep him the year after that.  Westburg is going to make a push for playing time, Norby (I know, he's 2nd base but you can put Westburg there for 2023), is Ortiz legit?   And then Henderson is on the horizon, too.  

It's a positive problem to have, for sure.  Literally, too much talent up the middle and in the infield to where tough decisions are going to be have to made.  

 

Westburg will probably hit better, but I'd rather go with Mateo for the next 2-3 years, then go to Holliday. We know Mateo is an elite defender. That should be the priority at short. I would go with Ortiz at second and Norby in left.

[Sports Guy]

8 hours ago, orioles22 said:

Westburg will probably hit better, but I'd rather go with Mateo for the next 2-3 years, then go to Holliday. We know Mateo is an elite defender. That should be the priority at short. I would go with Ortiz at second and Norby in left.

We know Mateo was an elite defender in 2022.  We don’t know that he will be going forward.  Defense peaks, just like offense does.

[RZNJ]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

We know Mateo was an elite defender in 2022.  We don’t know that he will be going forward.  Defense peaks, just like offense does.

Right. But we don't know that he peaked either.  He's still 27 to start next year.  Maybe he plays the same type of defense and cuts his errors down.  

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Right. But we don't know that he peaked either.  He's still 27 to start next year.  Maybe he plays the same type of defense and cuts his errors down.  

Absolutely.   But when you have a sub 650 OPS and no real signs that’s going to get better, do you want to take that gamble and find out in a year where you are trying to win and when you have other SS options that can also play high level defense?

[Sports Guy]

I mean, look at his statcast numbers…they suck.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/jorge-mateo-622761?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb
 

Just not any signs that he’s going to be a good hitter.

 

[RZNJ]

16 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Absolutely.   But when you have a sub 650 OPS and no real signs that’s going to get better, do you want to take that gamble and find out in a year where you are trying to win and when you have other SS options that can also play high level defense?

Maybe. Maybe not.  Just replying to your suggesting that his defense may get worse.  It might get better too.  Looking at some other SS, I don't see a reason to expect a significant dropoff defensively. 

I don't believe in Mateo's offensive future but when you say there are no signs of it getting better you ignore a 50 game stretch where he put up an .880 OPS and looked like a ML hitter for some time.

Edited October 3, 2022 by RZNJ

[Sports Guy]

22 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Maybe. Maybe not.  Just replying to your suggesting that his defense may get worse.  It might get better too.  Looking at some other SS, I don't see a reason to expect a significant dropoff defensively. 

I don't believe in Mateo's offensive future but when you say there are no signs of it getting better you ignore a 50 game stretch where he put up an .880 OPS and looked like a ML hitter for some time.

Yea, I’m going to ignore a stretch that is a total aberration from what he did the rest of the year and throughout his pro career.

Again, look at the statcast data.  It’s not like he’s hammering the ball all over the park and hitting into a lot of bad luck.

He’s just not a good hitter.

As for his defense, sure it can get better although I doubt the statcast numbers get better with the shift basically abolished.

I certainly don’t bet against him being an above average defender in 2023.  Whether or not he’s an elite/legit GG candidate is something that I’m not necessarily counting on and no one else should either since he’s never been that good before.

Edited October 3, 2022 by Sports Guy

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea, I’m going to ignore a stretch that is a total aberration from what he did the rest of the year and throughout his pro career.

Again, look at the statcast data.  It’s not like he’s hammering the ball all over the park and hitting into a lot of bad luck.

He’s just not a good hitter.

As for his defense, sure it can get better although I doubt the statcast numbers get better with the shift basically abolished.

I certainly don’t bet against him being an above average defender in 2023.  Whether or not he’s an elite/legit GG candidate is something that I’m not necessarily counting on and no one else should either since he’s never been that good before.

Again, you said there were no signs but there were.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

Again, you said there were no signs but there were.

Lol ok

[wildcard]

40 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Absolutely.   But when you have a sub 650 OPS and no real signs that’s going to get better, do you want to take that gamble and find out in a year where you are trying to win and when you have other SS options that can also play high level defense?

The fact that the O's have other SS that can take over if Mateo does poorly could allow the O's to begin the year with him at SS.  Then if they have to move Gunnar or Ortiz to SS during the season they can do that.

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Maybe. Maybe not.  Just replying to your suggesting that his defense may get worse.  It might get better too.  Looking at some other SS, I don't see a reason to expect a significant dropoff defensively. 

I don't believe in Mateo's offensive future but when you say there are no signs of it getting better you ignore a 50 game stretch where he put up an .880 OPS and looked like a ML hitter for some time.

Games 1-32 .660 OPS

Games 33-64 .435 OPS 

Games 65-114 .886 OPS

Games 115-146 .488 OPS

 

I don’t know what to make of that mess, other than to assume that the .651 overall number is the best approximation of what we should expect next season.  It seemed to me that his July-August results weren’t the result of abundant luck; he looked like an entirely different hitter, and a very capable one, in that stretch.  But when it ended, he didn’t just slide a little, he reverted back to the most pathetic version of himself.   His whole approach at the plate just seems completely different.  

You almost could get anything next year.  .750 wouldn’t shock me, and if he did that, he’d be an all-star.   .550 wouldn’t shock me either, and that could drum him out of a starting job.  It’s very hard to know what to expect

As to his defense, there’s no reason to expect it will be anything but very good to excellent.  Could his numbers slip a little?   Sure.   But he was extremely consistent all year and I see no reason to expect a big change next year.  

 

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Games 1-32 .660 OPS

Games 33-64 .435 OPS 

Games 65-114 .886 OPS

Games 115-146 .488 OPS

 

I don’t know what to make of that mess, other than to assume that the .651 overall number is the best approximation of what we should expect next season.  It seemed to me that his July-August results weren’t the result of abundant luck; he looked like an entirely different hitter, and a very capable one, in that stretch.  But when it ended, he didn’t just slide a little, he reverted back to the most pathetic version of himself.   His whole approach at the plate just seems completely different.  

You almost could get anything next year.  .750 wouldn’t shock me, and if he did that, he’d be an all-star.   .550 wouldn’t shock me either, and that could drum him out of a starting job.  It’s very hard to know what to expect

As to his defense, there’s no reason to expect it will be anything but very good to excellent.  Could his numbers slip a little?   Sure.   But he was extremely consistent all year and I see no reason to expect a big change next year.  

 

Completely agree.  As usual, you just say it better.  Lol