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I've made my decision


RZNJ
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Henderson for SS in 2023.  He's got the athleticism and the arm for it.  His combination of defensive plus offense will be an overall upgrade over Mateo,  probably significantly.   

We can shop Mateo as a bonafide ML SS to a team looking for one.  

Urias stays at 3B to open next season, looking for a slight rebound offensively.   Joey Ortiz gets 1st crack at 2B.  He's the best combination of offense and defense at 2B.  At 24, on his 3rd straight 1.000 OPS month, the time is now.  

Where does Jordan Westburg fit in?  A man of many positions, including 1B.  He's a player in waiting in case any of the 4 infielders falters, getting time at all 4 spots.

Connor Norby starts back at AAA but he looks ready as well.  We have to find out where Norby can fit in.  Is he a viable LF in OPACY?  With reported average speed and and an average arm at best, maybe not.  Sounds like the same description of Vavra.

While Henderson at SS, creates a bit of a problem for lineup construction because Norby, Ortiz, and Westburg all factor in better at 2B than 3B, I still think it's the way to go.

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26 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

We can shop Mateo as a bonafide ML SS to a team looking for one. 

Not unless we can get a really good return for him.

I'm not saying that Mateo should start over Henderson, I'm just saying that Mateo still has a ton of value to us even if he's not a positional starter.  That glove and that speed are elite, and he can give rest to our infield starters regularly.  He's also fast enough to be trained as an outfielder if we choose to do that.

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I agree, I just can't see Mateo as an every day player. I do think he could put up 1-2 WAR used creatively in a utility role plus give us some insurance in case Gunnar struggles. Bring him in for defense when we have the lead, pinch run in any close game, start him at 2B or SS occasionally with Westburg or Urias at DH when you want to stack RHB. He would fit in with what Hyde seems to like, a bunch of versatile guys that you move around depending on game situation. 

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I am in the camp that gives Mateo the SS slot next year and build the other slots from there .. Gunnar is a better third baseman I believe.  And I believe Mateo will hit a bit better but even so, I am if the Belanger era ..give me a truly elite SS and I could care less about his bat

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3 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

I am in the camp that gives Mateo the SS slot next year and build the other slots from there .. Gunnar is a better third baseman I believe.  And I believe Mateo will hit a bit better but even so, I am if the Belanger era ..give me a truly elite SS and I could care less about his bat

Do you know for a fact that Gunnar can’t be every bit the SS that Mateo is defensively.  He’ll have to prove it but he’s got just as much arm, agility, and he’s almost as fast.  I’ll take the slight downgrade and the extra 200 OPS. Thank you.  I’m confident that Henderson is at least average there with the ability to be above average.  I am not confident that Mateo will be any better offensively than what he’s done overall this year.  In fact, there’s a fair chance this is his high point.  
 

This is about probabilities.  I think Sid and Mike will think the same way.

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I think the big question that need too be answered is how much do the Orioles believe in Mateo.  If they see him as the answer for the next 2-3 years at least, I see them including Westburg in a trade for a TOR pitcher.  2nd base gets filled by Vavra or Norby, or Urias next year.  Then Mateo in place until Holliday is ready.

 

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1 hour ago, Frobby said:

If I were playing Ortiz, Henderson and Urias as my starters, I think I’d have Ortiz at SS, Henderson at 3B, Urias at 2B.  But it’s close.  

According to Tony and the stats, you are only playing one guy at his optimal position, Henderson.   Even that, I think is up for debate.  Urías seems pretty clearly to be a much better 3B than 2B.   According to Tony, Ortiz would be above average at SS but elite at 2B (also key for turning the DP).   How much better is Henderson 3B than SS?   How much better are Mateo and Ortiz at SS compared to Henderson?  From what I’ve seen, Henderson might be much better at SS than we have previously assumed.  He moves really well and he’s got a cannon.  How consistent can he become?  He’s already good and he’s 21.

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25 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Do you know for a fact that Gunnar can’t be every bit the SS that Mateo is defensively.  He’ll have to prove it but he’s got just as much arm, agility, and he’s almost as fast.  I’ll take the slight downgrade and the extra 200 OPS. Thank you.  I’m confident that Henderson is at least average there with the ability to be above average.  I am not confident that Mateo will be any better offensively than what he’s done overall this year.  In fact, there’s a fair chance this is his high point.  
 

This is about probabilities.  I think Sid and Mike will think the same way.

Could be .. but I have never heard Jim Palmer gush about any shortstop.. not even Belanger.. as he does about Mateo.  

It is a good problem to have but the correct bat comparison is actually between Mateo and Urias .   Urias will be traded or become the Melvin Mora utility guy in my scenario, not Henderson.  So Urias .697 OPS and Mateo’s .647 is the difference between our proposals,  50 OPS not 200,  because Henderson’s bat is in my lineup too..and Mateo’s elite speed is also a plus. 
 

We shall see.. but i think Mateo can still improve further at the plate from his first full every day season. 

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Its a really interesting choice, including factoring in Holliday for the longer term.    Simplest terms Urias is floor, Mateo is ceiling.    You smother Westburg and Ortiz both if you want to hoard.    How solidly does Elias believe in the rest of the 2023 team?

I would guess NO on Mateo, Urias, Westburg, Ortiz and Norby all being in the organization come Spring Training, and offseason actions will give us some of Elias' answers.

I do think Westburg and Ortiz are the level of players Elias will manage to keep control of 2029 and "more years of control" as future trade chips, a fate Grayson might share if the calculation ends up he won't get the volume of innings needed to make a Top 2 2023 Rookie of the Year finish likely.

Whoever gets the May-June-July starting job may also be the one being showcased as the Joe Musgrove type guy come Trade Deadline time.

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5 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Could be .. but I have never heard Jim Palmer gush about any shortstop.. not even Belanger.. as he does about Mateo.  

It is a good problem to have but the correct bat comparison is actually between Mateo and Urias .   Urias will be traded or become the Melvin Mora utility guy in my scenario, not Henderson.  So Urias .697 OPS and Mateo’s .647 is the difference between our proposals,  50 OPS not 200,  because Henderson’s bat is in my lineup too..and Mateo’s elite speed is also a plus. 
 

We shall see.. but i think Mateo can still improve further at the plate from his first full every day season. 

Palmer can gush all he wants.  I haven’t heard him say much about Jorge’s at bats.   If you have a great team and a great one-way player, that’s great.  Would you rather have the best defensive catcher in baseball or Adley Rutshman at catcher?    

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