I've made my decision

[Frobby]

Just now, tntoriole said:

 

But several reports are that Nolan is not going to opt out and loves St Louis

https://redbirdrants.com/2022/09/23/cardinals-rumors-nolan-arenado/amp/
 

I don’t know why any player would ever opt out of playing for St. Louis.  They’re always good, and they have some kind of fountain of youth over there.  

[tntoriole]

Just now, Frobby said:

I don’t know why any player would ever opt out of playing for St. Louis.  They’re always good, and they have some kind of fountain of youth over there.  

Excellent organizational culture .. night and day difference from Rockies ..and a great fan base 

[OriolesMagic83]

7 hours ago, Frobby said:

Personally I think Mateo is very talented.  His plate discipline is poor.  

I don't see that changing either.  I think he is what he is at the plate.  He could still bring a lot of value in a reserve role. 

[Frobby]

12 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I don't see that changing either.  I think he is what he is at the plate.  He could still bring a lot of value in a reserve role. 

I’ve very rarely seen a player with bad plate discipline change his stripes significantly, so I don’t really have any expectations that Mateo can do it, only vague hopes.  

I will say this: Santander has made some pretty marked improvements in plate discipline.   
 

[Aristotelian]

21 hours ago, Frobby said:

Personally I think Mateo is very talented.  His plate discipline is poor.  

Lately I have noticed a lot of looking K's. To me it is more a question of pitch recognition than discipline per se. Lately at least he has been looking for walks to a fault.

[SilverRocket]

The more I think about this the more I think it's mostly interchangeable and the real variable is what our players can net in a trade. Mateo and Urias have a similar WAR this year. Urias has four years of team control vs Mateo's three. In the end, I don't think there's a big difference between Urias at 3B and Henderson at SS vs Henderson at 3B and Mateo at SS. We can take the pure best value offer for either Urias or Mateo and keep the other one. Westburg goes to 2B. If Ortiz is ready quickly then we can look to make another deal.

[RZNJ]

9 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Lately I have noticed a lot of looking K's. To me it is more a question of pitch recognition than discipline per se. Lately at least he has been looking for walks to a fault.

He's not looking for walks.  He's still swinging at high breaking pitches above the strike zone.  It is odd the amount of fastballs he's taken for strikes lately.   As the announcer said, "he's not seeing the ball well right now".    When guys are going bad, they are swinging at balls and taking strikes.   He just needs to go back to a CF and RF approach.   That's the kind of mindset he had back in July when he was going well.    He's just messed up right now, mechanically and mentally.

Edited September 27, 2022 by RZNJ

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, SilverRocket said:

The more I think about this the more I think it's mostly interchangeable and the real variable is what our players can net in a trade. Mateo and Urias have a similar WAR this year. Urias has four years of team control vs Mateo's three. In the end, I don't think there's a big difference between Urias at 3B and Henderson at SS vs Henderson at 3B and Mateo at SS. We can take the pure best value offer for either Urias or Mateo and keep the other one. Westburg goes to 2B. If Ortiz is ready quickly then we can look to make another deal.

Good post.  Good perspective.

[btdart20]

2 hours ago, SilverRocket said:

The more I think about this the more I think it's mostly interchangeable and the real variable is what our players can net in a trade. Mateo and Urias have a similar WAR this year. Urias has four years of team control vs Mateo's three. In the end, I don't think there's a big difference between Urias at 3B and Henderson at SS vs Henderson at 3B and Mateo at SS. We can take the pure best value offer for either Urias or Mateo and keep the other one. Westburg goes to 2B. If Ortiz is ready quickly then we can look to make another deal.

This is a much more succinct way of putting what I've been thinking too.  I had started a bunch of responses looking at each player, position, AL East positional comparisons...  

Long/short:  I think this off season we'll see a rebalancing of the portfolio.  We'll take some MIF profits and reallocate them to lagging SP returns.  I kind of doubt it'll be ML level SP returns though in these trades.  Maybe I'm wrong and it's a package deal for #1-2 SP but I don't think they have the other pieces to finalize that type of deal (like I don't think they trade Mullins without a plan B ready).

From a positional comparison perspective:  Even with just in-house talent, I wouldn't be shocked if we're on par with Toronto's IF total WAR in 2023.