The Core/Keepers

[wildcard]

9 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Yes those are names we toss around.  But how many games have they played at 1B?  

Westburg is a skilled defensive infielder.  I really doubt he would have any problems playing 1B.

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I agree with this but I don't know that Mountcastle will need to be replaced.  He had a better 2021 than 2022.   He could adjust and have a good season next year.   If he is having a poor year next season  Westburg can step in at 1B.

I don’t think Mountcastle has to be replaced.  

[RZNJ]

16 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Yes those are names we toss around.  But how many games have they played at 1B?  

The same number Mountcastle had until his last year in the minors.

[RZNJ]

Another good question. Who is the backup 1B on OD next year?  Is he on the current 40 man roster?   We know Rutshman has played some 1B but what if Mountcastle gets hurt?

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Another good question. Who is the backup 1B on OD next year?  Is he on the current 40 man roster?   We know Rutshman has played some 1B but what if Mountcastle gets hurt?

Trey Mancini.  Or a better version of him.  You could have Stowers or Santander learn 1B next spring, but I think it’s more likely they find someone with 1B experience.   And it won’t be Jesus Aguilar.

[orioles22]

By spending all those years in the minors, it looks like Bautista is locked in with the Orioles through what should be his best years from 27 to 32 or so. It seems the bullpen is pretty solid at this point, especially if Hall develops and Wells ends up there if we sign a starter or two in the offseason.

[jamalshw]

47 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Not exactly tons of experience there.  I guess your point is that they aren’t just going to put someone there in place of Mountcastle without any 1B experience.  I tend to agree, although I think the learning curve there for someone like Westburg would be pretty small.

I'm onboard with Stowers and Stantander learning 1B and maybe even Norby, but I don't think I want to see Westburg become a 1B unless it's out of desperation and/or short-term due to injury replacement. While I think he could handle it well and not need too much time, I think he brings more value to the Orioles as a top-100 middle infield prospect in a trade than I think he does as a 1B in Baltimore. 

[RZNJ]

8 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

I'm onboard with Stowers and Stantander learning 1B and maybe even Norby, but I don't think I want to see Westburg become a 1B unless it's out of desperation and/or short-term due to injury replacement. While I think he could handle it well and not need too much time, I think he brings more value to the Orioles as a top-100 middle infield prospect in a trade than I think he does as a 1B in Baltimore. 

I disagree.  He’s part of a larger package as a trade chip.  He’s considered a back end of the top 100.  He’ll have a lot more value to us and as a trade chip if he comes up and hits no matter which position he’s playing.  Sure, I’d rather see him at 2B or 3B but it depends on the rest of the infield.  

[MarCakes21]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Honestly, all these descriptions of “core” players are subjective and everyone has a different idea of what “core” means.   But for fun, here are 2012-16 rWAR totals for some of the players mentioned:

Machado 24.5

Jones 18.9

Davis 17.8

Tillman 12.0

Hardy 11.7

O’Day 9.9

Chen 9.4

Gonzalez 9.4

Wieters 9.0

Schoop 6.4

Britton 4.7

Markakis 4.0

So, who’s a 10+ rWAR player for this team from 2023-27?

Assuming health, I've got, likely in some particular order:

Adley, Mullins, Henderson, GRod, Bautista 

After that, the questions on how long they're kept and performance maintenance are:

Santander, Hays, Mountcastle, Kremer, Bradish

Then guys who aren't on the active roster, but have potential to be here soon:

Cowser, Westburg, Ortiz

[clapdiddy]

49 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Trey Mancini.  Or a better version of him.  You could have Stowers or Santander learn 1B next spring, but I think it’s more likely they find someone with 1B experience.   And it won’t be Jesus Aguilar.

I think you may be right about Mancini.   I don't see him getting a big contract anywhere.   I could see him back here on a one or two year deal.    Not saying I'm for it, but it wouldn't surprise me.

[oriole]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

I don’t think Mountcastle has to be replaced.  

He doesn’t have to. He could have a resurgence. But when you look at all the other positions and think about where there’s room for improvement then 1B is an obvious candidate. There’s a good amount of OF and IF prospects on the horizon except for 1B. They’re not going to look for a pure DH because of Rutschman. Sure, you could write Mountcastle in as a come back candidate in 2023 but he hasn’t really shown anything this year that makes me feel like he adjusts very well which makes a come back seem unlikely. 
 

So, if the Orioles want to upgrade the offense, 1B seems like the sensible target. 

[wildcard]

48 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

I'm onboard with Stowers and Stantander learning 1B and maybe even Norby, but I don't think I want to see Westburg become a 1B unless it's out of desperation and/or short-term due to injury replacement. While I think he could handle it well and not need too much time, I think he brings more value to the Orioles as a top-100 middle infield prospect in a trade than I think he does as a 1B in Baltimore. 

I don't think Westburg's trade value matters because I think its highly unlikely he is traded.  Well, until 2027 or so.

Westburg will be able to help the O's at a lot of positions including 2B/3B/1B and maybe even the corner outfield positions.   Kind of where ever he is needed considering what happens with Mateo, Ortiz and Hays.

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Honestly, all these descriptions of “core” players are subjective and everyone has a different idea of what “core” means.   But for fun, here are 2012-16 rWAR totals for some of the players mentioned:

Machado 24.5

Jones 18.9

Davis 17.8

Tillman 12.0

Hardy 11.7

O’Day 9.9

Chen 9.4

Gonzalez 9.4

Wieters 9.0

Schoop 6.4

Britton 4.7

Markakis 4.0

So, who’s a 10+ rWAR player for this team from 2023-27?

That number looks low for Britton. I am seeing about 9 WAR for him per bbref. fWAR has him with 5.7. I would think any definition of "core" would have to include Britton. 

[jamalshw]

35 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I don't think Westburg's trade value matters because I think its highly unlikely he is traded.  Well, until 2027 or so.

Westburg will be able to help the O's at a lot of positions including 2B/3B/1B and maybe even the corner outfield positions.   Kind of where ever he is needed considering what happens with Mateo, Ortiz and Hays.

I don't necessarily agree with this. I think there's a good chance he's not traded and he could certainly fit in at 2B next year as an upgrade over Odor, but my point is if we are going to put him at 1B and leave him there, I'd rather trade him (if the right deal is available) as I think he brings back more value to the Orioles in a trade than in that spot. He's a highly touted prospect, but some of that is related to the fact he's expected to provide solid defense in a spot higher up the defensive spectrum than 1B. If we are looking to replace Mountcastle at 1B, I'd rather do that by bringing in someone from the outside as 1B is somewhere we can get better offensive production. In most cases, a similarly ranked 1B prospect to Westburg is expected to deliver superior offense to him as such a player would obviously also offer less value on the defensive side of the ball. 

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

I don't necessarily agree with this. I think there's a good chance he's not traded and he could certainly fit in at 2B next year as an upgrade over Odor, but my point is if we are going to put him at 1B and leave him there, I'd rather trade him (if the right deal is available) as I think he brings back more value to the Orioles in a trade than in that spot. He's a highly touted prospect, but some of that is related to the fact he's expected to provide solid defense in a spot higher up the defensive spectrum than 1B. If we are looking to replace Mountcastle at 1B, I'd rather do that by bringing in someone from the outside as 1B is somewhere we can get better offensive production. In most cases, a similarly ranked 1B prospect to Westburg is expected to deliver superior offense to him as such a player would obviously also offer less value on the defensive side of the ball. 

If we had a 23 year old 1B prospect in AAA who put up an .860 OP with 27 homers and 106 RBI,  would you be ok with giving him a chance?