Players and prospects most likely to get dealt this winter and why

[MarCakes21]

18 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Santander should be on the block, but only as part of a deal that brings an impact starting pitcher or left-handed hitting 1B back.

Agree.  Just like the trade deadline deal, if you can get Snell or similar for Santander +, then you do it.

[Sports Guy]

One thing I will say and I kind of eluded to this with the post about Tate but I am not all that interested in trading major league contributors, for the most part, for role player type guys.  There are exceptions and things could change depending on what else they do but the acquisitions this team makes this offseason should be, for the most part, for high impact talent.

Role players we have.  Now we need to build the top of the roster.

[Tony-OH]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

One thing I will say and I kind of eluded to this with the post about Tate but I am not all that interested in trading major league contributors, for the most part, for role player type guys.  There are exceptions and things could change depending on what else they do but the acquisitions this team makes this offseason should be, for the most part, for high impact talent.

Role players we have.  Now we need to build the top of the roster.

Yes, this is a different kind of trading year for Elias so we really are in uncharted territory. 

You don't trade established players for minor league talent this year, you are now trading either minor league talent for established major league players or dealing established players in positions of depth for established young players in positions of need like, SP and Left-handed hitting 1B.

 

[MarCakes21]

8 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Yes, this is a different kind of trading year for Elias so we really are in uncharted territory. 

You don't trade established players for minor league talent this year, you are now trading either minor league talent for established major league players or dealing established players in positions of depth for established young players in positions of need like, SP and Left-handed hitting 1B.

 

I don't think that's the point SG is making.  He's saying you keep the minor league players assuming they can be role players, or trading minor league players for high impact (not established/role) players, ie Burnes/Woodruff/Alcantra types.

[oriole]

58 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

Agree.  Just like the trade deadline deal, if you can get Snell or similar for Santander +, then you do it.

Santander alone should be enough for Snell. Santander has 2 years left and Snell only has 1 so any additional value Snell might have would be offset by the lack of extended control. I’d be pretty happy with that trade 

[ScGO's]

I wonder if anyone would take Santander and Mountcastle for a TOR Starter w/o costing any top prospects?  I believe Santander MUST be traded as his value will never be higher, yet in my opinion he's overvalued. I also believe that the hidden data on Mountcastle makes him valuable in some teams' eyes and I don't believe we would be selling low on him. I could see other teams interested in his 30 HR potential in a better hitter's park, athletic play around the bag, and 3 more years of cost control.  I think both could fit in well in Miami as they have no real 1B option and Santander could hit 30 HRs as a DH/RF

[RZNJ]

14 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

I wonder if anyone would take Santander and Mountcastle for a TOR Starter w/o costing any top prospects?  I believe Santander MUST be traded as his value will never be higher, yet in my opinion he's overvalued. I also believe that the hidden data on Mountcastle makes him valuable in some teams' eyes and I don't believe we would be selling low on him. I could see other teams interested in his 30 HR potential in a better hitter's park, athletic play around the bag, and 3 more years of cost control.  I think both could fit in well in Miami as they have no real 1B option and Santander could hit 30 HRs as a DH/RF

I would say the chances are slim and none.   Mountcastle is cheap and young BUT he has the profile of players who don't carry much value.  I keep remembering C.J. Cron getting released by the Rays after hitting 30 home runs for them.   Of course, he was arbitration eligible but still.

Santander has value but even if a team wanted a 1B and a COF/DH it's tough to see that getting you a TOR.  Not sure it gets you a MOR.

The good news is that there should be teams searching for offense.

Edited October 7, 2022 by RZNJ

[deward]

3 hours ago, SCJeff said:

I have been posting on Bleacher Report that, while I may not like it, I still believe Westburg is the one traded this off-season. I think that's why he never got a call up to the majors. Not sure why they would move him because I really like his potential, but I think he is the headliner of a multi prospect deal. 

Ugh, I really hope not. I've been waiting for 20 years for another former Bulldog to become an everyday player for the O's, it would really suck for me if they trade him away when the possibility is this close. Clearly this is the only factor that Elias should be considering.

[Triple Crown]

I think Stowers could easily go in a deal. He’s a nice potential bat, but eye test wise for me, not a good baseball player. Maybe some team would tap into the offensive potential there and make a deal. 

[btdart20]

I'm still in the 'stacking talent' mindset in general.  We can't compete long-term with payroll, so our system/development has to always be graduating talent and cashing out profits.

General approaches I anticipate:

1. Deal from the top of the deck:  One of Santander/Hays will likely be traded.

2. Rebalance from depth: Mateo, Urias, Vavra, Westburg, Norby (Hernaiz and Bencosme).  It sounds like Elias likes Mateo's defense.  Which I think means Mateo at SS and Gunnar at 3B heading into 2023.  Only two of Urias, Vavra, Westburg, and Norby are needed at 2B and Util.  Norby is the least versatile defensively.  I'm not convinced the Urias has much trade value.  And Vavra doesn't have the ISO metrics.  Hernaiz/Bencosme are on the same time horizon as Holliday/Young.  Westburg probably is the most marketable.  But ideally Mateo would get whatever deal done.

I also think Ortiz is functionally untouchable (i.e. our asking price will be much higher than market rate).

3. If a deal can get worked out ahead of the option deadline, exercise Lyles' option and trade.  I bet Elias has been knocking on doors trying to cash out.  I wouldn't be shocked if we're an early mover in the off-season because of this.

4. A bullpen arm.  This one might sting a bit, but I think they trust their ability to identify untapped potential to back-fill.

It'll be interesting to see if he has "his guy" like he did with Lyles this past off-season.

 

[ShoelesJoe]

7 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Santander should be on the block, but only as part of a deal that brings an impact starting pitcher or left-handed hitting 1B back.

I can get behind a deal for an impact starter, but not sure why we’d be focusing on a left-hand hitting first baseman. The Orioles were pretty much annihilated by LH pitchers not named Yusei Kikuchi this season, so our offensive needs should start and end with guys who can hit lefties.

In fact, if I’m focusing on the “handed-ness” (is that a word?) of our player needs I’m looking to acquire right-handed batters and left-handed pitchers. We need to do more damage against opposing LH pitchers while holding down opposing LH batters, especially at home. 

[Morgan423]

I get a feeling that in the end, one of Mateo and Urias will be our utility guy.  The other will probably be dealt.  One role with two guys competing for it.  No idea which will stay.

[Tony-OH]

4 hours ago, ShoelesJoe said:

I can get behind a deal for an impact starter, but not sure why we’d be focusing on a left-hand hitting first baseman. The Orioles were pretty much annihilated by LH pitchers not named Yusei Kikuchi this season, so our offensive needs should start and end with guys who can hit lefties.

In fact, if I’m focusing on the “handed-ness” (is that a word?) of our player needs I’m looking to acquire right-handed batters and left-handed pitchers. We need to do more damage against opposing LH pitchers while holding down opposing LH batters, especially at home. 

I think a power left-handed hitting 1st baseman with short porch will make the team better than a right-handed first baseman who struggled with the wall. Not all left-handers struggle against left-handed pitching, like Stowers, who has always hits them well but for some reason Hyde/FO thinks he's a platoon guy.

[Sports Guy]

I don’t see a scenario where Vavra, Urias and Mateo are on the OD roster unless they just aren’t bringing anyone up, which seems dumb to me.

[MarCakes21]

20 hours ago, Morgan423 said:

I get a feeling that in the end, one of Mateo and Urias will be our utility guy.  The other will probably be dealt.  One role with two guys competing for it.  No idea which will stay.

So which has more value, both to you and to other teams?  I think Urias has more value here and Mateo to other teams?