Players and prospects most likely to get dealt this winter and why

[Sports Guy]

Santander, Mullins, Hays and Tate are the MLers I would actively shop.

There are multiple prospects I would move in a trade.

Mountcastle is someone I would be shopping but I’m not reading him for 50 cents on the dollar.

[NCRaven]

Mountcastle was 80 percentile or better in avg exit velocity, max exit velocity, hard hit rate, and 90 percentile or better in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and barrel rate.  Struck out too much, but this is not someone I want to get rid of.

[Teddy OBP]

This is a good list…for the trade deadline.  There seems to be enough room to let things play out and spend cash over prospects in the off-season. 
 

There are enough unknowns about the recent call ups and the top guys in the minors that they can wait to see.

Edited October 7, 2022 by pdiddy

[OriolesMagic83]

14 minutes ago, pdiddy said:

This is a good list…for the trade deadline.  There seems to be enough room to let things play out and spend cash over prospects in the off-season. 
 

There are enough unknowns about the recent call ups and the top guys in the minors that they can wait to see.

I could even see Elias getting 1 or more MI MLB experience and then trading them at the trade deadline.  A MI earning ML minimum putting up a .750-.800 OPS in the majors is worth as much or more than a MI putting up a .900 OPS in AAA.  There is a huge list of top prospects who couldn't make it in the majors.  This is dependent on someone already ready to take over in AAA or even in a MLB utility role already. 

[oriole]

3 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Yeah, I do agree with pretty much everything you said.   I just think it's going to be really tough to part ways with Santander even though this might be the highest his value will ever be.

I also agree on Mayo.  I forgot about him.   I could see him going in a a deal.   His defensive future is in question and despite his vast power potential there have to be questions about his hit tool when you look at his plate discipline numbers at Bowie.

I also agree about selling low on Hays and Mountcastle but they might determine it's time to cut bait especially if there is a deal for an established 1B or corner OF (not likely IMO).

Hopefully in return for Santander plus one of the middle infield prospects outside the top ten, you could get a middle of the rotation guy with two or three years left so the departure of Santander doesn’t sting so much. Obviously no matter what concoction of Santander and top 10-20 prospects you add up isn’t going to get you anything real shiny or anything but I doubt that’s the target when talking about trades. Right now it’s good to keep your good chips and let it play out while filling in the holes with solid free agent signings and trades for helpful, but probably not super impactful players. 
 

[oriole]

3 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Yeah, I do agree with pretty much everything you said.   I just think it's going to be really tough to part ways with Santander even though this might be the highest his value will ever be.

I also agree on Mayo.  I forgot about him.   I could see him going in a a deal.   His defensive future is in question and despite his vast power potential there have to be questions about his hit tool when you look at his plate discipline numbers at Bowie.

I also agree about selling low on Hays and Mountcastle but they might determine it's time to cut bait especially if there is a deal for an established 1B or corner OF (not likely IMO).

Hopefully in return for Santander plus one of the middle infield prospects outside the top ten, you could get a middle of the rotation guy with two or three years left so the departure of Santander doesn’t sting so much. Obviously no matter what concoction of Santander and top 10-20 prospects you add up isn’t going to get you anything real shiny or anything but I doubt that’s the target when talking about trades. Right now it’s good to keep your good chips and let it play out while filling in the holes with solid free agent signings and trades for helpful, but probably not super impactful players. 
 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

106 RBIs sounds like a guy who can hit with runners in scoring position.  That is something the O's need.   Westburg is ahead of Ortiz for the 2B job to begin the season.  I don't expect him to be traded.  JMO

There is almost no such thing as “a guy who can hit with runners in scoring position.”  Obviously, he did get a lot of hits with runners on; you can’t get to 106 RBI if you don’t.   But generally it is not a repeatable skill.  

I’d also expect that Westburg had a ton of at bats with runners on base, considering that he was generally preceded by guys like Henderson, Ortiz, Cowser and Norby.  
 

[Rbiggs2525]

Hays, Urias and Tate. Starting to become arbitration expensive and replacements coming. As for prospects top 4 are untouchable including Cowser. After that go get a TOR arm with the others.

 

 

 

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

There is almost no such thing as “a guy who can hit with runners in scoring position.”  Obviously, he did get a lot of hits with runners on; you can’t get to 106 RBI if you don’t.   But generally it is not a repeatable skill.  

I’d also expect that Westburg had a ton of at bats with runners on base, considering that he was generally preceded by guys like Henderson, Ortiz, Cowser and Norby.  
 

I call BS on this.   Some hitters have the skill of shortening their swing and going for a hit that drives in a run.  I think Westburg has that.  After watching a  season of some  O's hitters swinging from their heels to hit fly ball outs to the outfield it would be refreshing to add a player that actually knows how to work a count, hit a line drive and drive in a run.

I agree with your 2nd point though none of the four guys you mention were at the same club as Westburg all season long.  And getting 106 RBI is an all season long effort.

Edited October 7, 2022 by wildcard

[wildcard]

28 minutes ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

Hays, Urias and Tate. Starting to become arbitration expensive and replacements coming. As for prospects top 4 are untouchable including Cowser. After that go get a TOR arm with the others.

Urias is not arbitration eligible.  And I doubt expense would be the reason to trade Hays or Tate.

[OriolesMagic83]

5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Cowser was a guy the Os loved when they took him.  They openly admitted they had him trying to change things.

That said, they took him because of his bat to ball skills and the thought was that he would be a high average guy.  He’s not doing that.

Was he not what was advertised?  Is he worse than the team thought?  

Cowser scored 113 runs and got on base at a .406 clip.  I'll take more guys like that.  The .406 included a rough start at Norfolk, where he was just warming up when the season ended. 

[jrobb21613]

Trade Mullins and move Mateo to centerfield. 

[Sports Guy]

7 hours ago, wildcard said:

I call BS on this.   Some hitters have the skill of shortening their swing and going for a hit that drives in a run.  I think Westburg has that.  After watching a  season of some  O's hitters swinging from their heels to hit fly ball outs to the outfield it would be refreshing to add a player that actually knows how to work a count, hit a line drive and drive in a run.

I agree with your 2nd point though none of the four guys you mention were at the same club as Westburg all season long.  And getting 106 RBI is an all season long effort.

Show us evidence if you think it’s bs.

[Sports Guy]

7 hours ago, wildcard said:

Urias is not arbitration eligible.  And I doubt expense would be the reason to trade Hays or Tate.

It’s not so much that they are expensive, it’s more like can you get the same production for less money and do you believe in their talents as they get into those more expensive arb years.

Think of it another way, do you want to pay Hays and Tate 6-10M in 2024?

Edited October 7, 2022 by Sports Guy

[Jagwar]

10 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Santander, Mullins, Hays and Tate are the MLers I would actively shop.

There are multiple prospects I would move in a trade.

Mountcastle is someone I would be shopping but I’m not reading him for 50 cents on the dollar.

I'm torn on Tate. I know he could get expensive but he's a solid reliever. I think I'd rather add bullpen pieces and keep the core we have. 

My concern would be that Mountcastle would fail to improve and his value next year would be 25 cents on the dollar