Correa opts out…should the Os pursue him?

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If they have unlimited payroll they won't need to use the Correa money on Adley and Gunnar.

Just sayin....

I get your point, but even the Yankees have been criticized by their own fans for not spending more in free agency the last couple years.

During the same team me O’s fans have been hoping Elias will sign a reclamation project that becomes a good ball player.  It will be nice if the Orioles are actual players in signing or trading for star talent again. 

[Jagwar]

20 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If they have unlimited payroll they won't need to use the Correa money on Adley and Gunnar.

Just sayin....

OK Chief Curmudgeon 

Whatever the budget Elias is given, a high priced SS should be far down the list. 

[WI O’s Fan]

Talent is talent.   My ideal off-season pick ups:

1. Sign Taillon. 3/50

2. Sign Josh Bell 3/50

3. Trade Mountcastle and Hays for Pedro Lopez and Stallings

4. Sign Turner  8/280

5. Sign two middle relievers

6. Sign Mancini 1/10

 

6 man starting rotation

Taillon

Lopez

Kremer

Braddish

Hall/Wells

Rodriquez

      lineup

Mullins  cf
Turner  ss

Rutschman  c

Bell  1b

Santander Rf

Henderson 3b

Mancini Dh

Stowers lf

Westburg 2b

 

 

 

 

[Pickles]

7 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

There’s also a huge risk in expecting a player to match a defensive season that he has never come close to showing before and that is after a long pro career.

You want to ignore that for some reason.  You want to ignore that several other players had a better OAA than he did. You want to ignore the idea that defense can and does peak.

He may still be a GG level SS going forward. Acting like it’s a sure thing is wrong. 

You know, I should respond to this.

The thing is, I don't really care that profoundly about your stats.  I know you have your new grail, but in five years it will be the same song: a new grail, and an admission the old one was flawed.  You'll argue that is the scientific process, ever-evolving.  I say there is a level of randomness in this series of events which cannot be measured, and you'll never get a perfect "number."  They're better than they were, because they were laughable before, but you cannot in the fine enough detail you claim put a number on the difference between Jorge Mateo and Darby Swanson to what is essentially a handful of runs over six months of games.  The quest is inherently quixotic. 

What I care about is what I saw, and what others have long seen, as provided by Rizza the Razah, with the scouting report: A 60 glove, 70 arm, and 80 speed/range.  That won't change unless he gets injured, or until he ages out of that and he's dead in his prime.  Those are the numbers I care about.

[Hallas]

1 hour ago, Pickles said:

You know, I should respond to this.

The thing is, I don't really care that profoundly about your stats.  I know you have your new grail, but in five years it will be the same song: a new grail, and an admission the old one was flawed.  You'll argue that is the scientific process, ever-evolving.  I say there is a level of randomness in this series of events which cannot be measured, and you'll never get a perfect "number."  They're better than they were, because they were laughable before, but you cannot in the fine enough detail you claim put a number on the difference between Jorge Mateo and Darby Swanson to what is essentially a handful of runs over six months of games.  The quest is inherently quixotic. 

What I care about is what I saw, and what others have long seen, as provided by Rizza the Razah, with the scouting report: A 60 glove, 70 arm, and 80 speed/range.  That won't change unless he gets injured, or until he ages out of that and he's dead in his prime.  Those are the numbers I care about.

I'm not going to dismiss the scouting reports, but the best shortstop to play for us between the Ripken/Bordick years and Mateo was a guy with a mediocre arm and could barely beat our catcher in a foot race: JJ Hardy.  And he was a great defender through his early-mid 30s.  Tools reports can only tell you so much. If you've seen him play a lot, and you think he's a plus defender, I'll take your word for it, but I think you have to be certifiably insane to use his tools as a proxy for his defensive ability.

[DrungoHazewood]

13 hours ago, Ohfan67 said:

The WAR per 162 games played is an interesting stat for Correa…because he is really unlikely to play 162 games. That was his personal 162 game WAR for this year, but he played in less than 140 games. 

Right, the chart needs age and likelihood of getting anywhere close to 162 games.

[DrungoHazewood]

15 hours ago, Il BuonO said:

OAA has him at -3, DRS 3 and UZR 1.

Right, so average-ish MLB shortstop.

[Sports Guy]

18 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Right, so average-ish MLB shortstop.

And he was really good the year before. Correa has had some up and down defensive numbers in the past but injuries likely helped with that.  
 

I think it’s now safe to say the defensive decline is occurring.

[Frobby]

22 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

And he was really good the year before. Correa has had some up and down defensive numbers in the past but injuries likely helped with that.  
 

I think it’s now safe to say the defensive decline is occurring.

Seems like your second paragraph doesn’t really follow from the first.  The averagish numbers from 2022 may have been the result of playing with injuries he didn’t have in 2021.  So I don’t think it’s “safe to say” decline is occurring, in terms of what might happen in 2023.   Mind you, it could be occurring.  It’s just the “safe to say” part I disagree with.  

[Frobby]

Here’s a quote from Correa: “When I go to the mall and I go to the Dior store, when I want something, I get it.  I ask how much it costs, and I buy it.  If you really want something, you just go get it. I’m the product here.   If they [the Twins] want my product, they’ve just got to come and get it.”

Don’t ask me why, but I find that comment irritating.   

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Here’s a quote from Correa: “When I go to the mall and I go to the Dior store, when I want something, I get it.  I ask how much it costs, and I buy it.  If you really want something, you just go get it. I’m the product here.   If they [the Twins] want my product, they’ve just got to come and get it.”

Don’t ask me why, but I find that comment irritating.   

If you won't let me ask you why I'm just going to assume you're hate Dior.

[Pickles]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If you won't let me ask you why I'm just going to assume you're hate Dior.

I don't think it's he hates Dior, as much as he hates men who wear Dior.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

If you won't let me ask you why I'm just going to assume you're hate Dior.

I think someone bought me a Dior shirt once.   That’s the only thing I’ve ever owned by them.   But I’m not a Dior hater.   Just not a buyer.   Of any kind of clothes, really.  I generally hate shopping, period.  

[DrungoHazewood]

13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Here’s a quote from Correa: “When I go to the mall and I go to the Dior store, when I want something, I get it.  I ask how much it costs, and I buy it.  If you really want something, you just go get it. I’m the product here.   If they [the Twins] want my product, they’ve just got to come and get it.”

Don’t ask me why, but I find that comment irritating.   

It's very tone deaf.  It's basically, "I'm awesome, everyone wants me, if the Twins want in on the bidding they'll need to make an offer that I'm cool with."  But I suppose that's what you'd expect out of someone who signs a $100M+ contract and almost immediately ops out to try to get more money.

It's just one out-of-context statement, but that would make me less likely to want to give him hundreds of millions of dollars and shuffle/trade a bunch of current players to accommodate him.  And I wasn't in favor of that in the first place.

[jamalshw]

13 hours ago, WI O’s Fan said:

Talent is talent.   My ideal off-season pick ups:

1. Sign Taillon. 3/50

2. Sign Josh Bell 3/50

3. Trade Mountcastle and Hays for Pedro Lopez and Stallings

4. Sign Turner  8/280

5. Sign two middle relievers

6. Sign Mancini 1/10

 

6 man starting rotation

Taillon

Lopez

Kremer

Braddish

Hall/Wells

Rodriquez

      lineup

Mullins  cf
Turner  ss

Rutschman  c

Bell  1b

Santander Rf

Henderson 3b

Mancini Dh

Stowers lf

Westburg 2b

 

 

 

 

I assume you mean Pablo Lopez. 

I don't mind the moves you are proposing, but it's a lot more than I think we need (I don't know if both Taillon and Lopez are needed in your scenario and I don't think bringing back Mancini is needed either) and I would shoot higher on the pitching market. I do love the Josh Bell target and don't hate going after Turner. 

My ideal moves (just as unlikely as yours admittedly) would be to add Turner (or Correa) and Bell to the offense. I would be on board with moving Mountcastle and Hays in a move for pitching, but not sure how much trade value either has. It may need to be Santander instead and someone like Urias or Mateo could also be included. Of course, it would also take prospects (particularly if you're aiming higher which I would target Corbin Burnes from Milwaukee, but would not mind Lopez who will obviously be much cheaper in terms of talent). I'd throw Westburg or Ortiz and DL Hall into the trade mix.

Adding Burnes would make the rotation pretty strong with Rodriguez, Bradish, Kremer and Wells filling it out. You then have Voth, Baumann, Watkins, and Zimmermann as depth with Means likely back in the second half and I could also see bringing back Lyles or a similar veteran to add to the depth. 

In such a scenario, Voth gets thrown into the pen with Bautista, Perez, Tate, Baker, Krehbiel, Vespi and whomever else earns a spot. One veteran added to the pen wouldn't be bad as long as it was on a lower end contract (or another waiver wire pickup as Elias struck gold on waiver bullpen pick ups last year). 

As for the offense, if you are able to get the deal done with Mountcastle and Hays as the major league pieces, that would give you a lineup of: 

Mullins (CF), Turner/Correa (SS), Rutschman (C), Bell (1B), Henderson (3B), Santander (DH/OF), Vavra (LF), Stowers (OF/DH), Westburg/Ortiz/Urias (2B)

If Santander is part of the deal, you pull him out and put in Hays or Mountcastle or whomever else is not part of the deal, but there is flexibility. And there's also Cowser and Norby (amongst others) on the horizon which is why I don't think I'd tie up the DH spot with Mancini.