Multi-year contracts, and locking up pre-Arb players

[Frobby]

I did a deep dive today into every team’s roster to look at how many multi-year contracts they had, and how they broke down into various categories.   Here’s a quick summary:

1.  There were 224 multi-year contacts in MLB this year.  That includes contracts that expired at the end of 2022, and contracts that were signed sometime in 2022 but which haven’t gone into effect yet (e.g. Spencer Strider).

2.  Of the 224, 141 are for players who either signed as free agents, or who signed a “second extension” that only covered FA years.  

3.  There were 46 contracts signed during Arb-eligible years but which bought out or had options on one or more FA years.

4.  There were 8 contracts signed during Arb-eligible years that were two-year deals but didn’t impact any free agent seasons.  

5.  There were 30 contracts for players who weren’t yet eligible for arbitration.  All of those buy out (or have options on) at least one FA season.

6.  The teams with the most multi-year deals were Atlanta (17), the White Sox (15), Houston (13) and San Diego (13).   The teams with the least were Oakland (0), Baltimore (1), Pittsburgh (2), Cleveland (3), Kansas City (3) and Washington (3).   

I’ll get into some other details in a post tomorrow about the 30 pre-Arb contracts.  


 

[orioles22]

I don't think I will buy into the idea that the Orioles are serious about spending money until they lock up a handful of our top guys like Adley and Henderson. I saw today a list of Braves who have signed extensions. There are 6-7 who have signed for six years or more.

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, orioles22 said:

I don't think I will buy into the idea that the Orioles are serious about spending money until they lock up a handful of our top guys like Adley and Henderson. I saw today a list of Braves who have signed extensions. There are 6-7 who have signed for six years or more.

The Braves are pretty unique in signing up a lot of their younger players.  The White Sox are the other team that is very active that way.  I’ll get Into this tomorrow when I go through the 30 pre-Arb contracts.  Of course, it also takes two to tango.  The player has to be willing to do a long term deal rather than going year by year.  

[Frobby]

I'm planning to post details about the 30 active pre-Arb contract extensions.   To keep the length of the posts somewhat manageable, I'll break it into three groups of ten, starting with today's post about the ten biggest contracts.   I'll do the smaller ones later this week.   I'm hoping this breakdown will be useful when we discuss locking up players like Rutschman, Henderson and others.   Here's the top ten:

1.  Fernando Tatis Jr., 14 years, $340 mm, 2021-34 (ages 22-35).   Tatis came into the 2019 season at age 20 as BA’s no. 2 prospect.   He made the Opening Day roster, and despite a stress reaction in his back that limited him to 84 games, put up a 4.2 rWAR season, good for 3^rd in the NL ROY voting despite the missed time.   In the COVID-shortened 2020 season, he remained healthy and put up a 2.8 rWAR season, finishing 4^th in the NL MVP race at age 21.   At that point, with 2.000 years of service, he signed his deal, which covers 10 FA seasons as well as one pre-Arb and all three Arb seasons.   Since then, he had a 6.6 rWAR, 130-game season in 2021 disrupted by shoulder issues that earned him 3^rd place in the MVP voting, but then missed all of 2022 with a combination of a broken wrist (apparently sustained in an offseason motorcycle accident) and a PED suspension.   So, it remains to be seen whether his future performance will be hindered by lingering effects of the injuries or the PED scrutiny.

2.  Wander Franco, 11 years, $182 mm (2022-32)(ages 21-32) plus option at $25 mm for 2033)(age 33).   Franco was BA’s no. 1 prospect entering 2021 at age 20, debuting in June and accruing 3.5 rWAR in 70 games, finishing 3^rd in the AL ROY voting despite his late debut.  He signed his contract that winter with 0.106 years of service, meaning he was still not Arb-eligible for three more seasons and not FA eligible for six  His contract covers all six of those years plus five FA seasons, with an option for a sixth.  In 2022, he missed substantial time with injuries (strained quad, broken hamate bone) but earned 2.6 rWAR in 83 games. 

3.  Julio Rodriguez, 7 years, $119 mm (2023-29)(ages 22-28) plus 5-year player option for2030-34 (ages 29-33).   Rodriguez was BA’s no. 2 prospect entering 2022 at age 21.   He made the Opening Day roster and put up a 6.0 rWAR season in 132 games, serving two short stints on the IL.  It appears likely he will win the AL ROY.  He signed his contract near the end of the 2022 season.  It covers at least two FA seasons and could go longer if Rodriguez chooses.

4.  Ronald Acuna Jr., 8 years, $100 mm (2019-26)(ages 21-27) plus options for 2027-28 at $17 mm/$17 mm (ages 28-29).   Acuna was BA’s no. 1 prospect in 2018 at age 20, and did not disappoint, putting up a 3.9 rWAR season in 111 games and earning the NL ROY, also finishing 12^th in the MVP voting.   Acuna earned 0.159 years of service, putting him in position to be a Super 2 after the 2020 season.   He then signed his deal with the Braves, which most observers regarded as team-friendly.  It covers two pre-Arb years, four Arb years and two FA years, with options for two more.  In the first year of the new deal, Acuna had a 5.1 rWAR season, finishing 5^th in the NL MVP voting.   In COVID-shortened 2020, Acuna was worth 2.3 rWAR in 46 games, finishing 12^th in NL MVP voting.  In 2021, Acuna tore his ACL halfway through the season, but still put up 3.6 rWAR in 82 games.   Acuna returned to the field in late April 2022 and was worth 2.8 rWAR in 119 games this year.   Due to his injuries, it’s hard to say whether Acuna’s arbitration salaries would have exceeded the $5 mm/$15 mm he earned in his Arb 1 and Arb 2 years if he’d gone year to year; I’d guess he might have earned a bit more in Arb 1 and less in Arb 2.  But with 4 years at $17 mm/yr remaining, plus two $17 mm options, this deal is still highly favorable to Atlanta if Acuna stays even remotely healthy. 

5.  Spencer Strider, 6 years, $75 mm (2023-28)(ages 24-29) plus option for 2029 at $22 mm (age 30).   A former 4^th round pick in 2020, and not ranked in the BA top 100, Strider had nowhere near the pedigree of Tatis, Franco, Rodriguez or Acuna.  Still, he debuted in the majors at the end of his first season in the minors, and then made the Braves’ Opening Day roster in 2022.  After 11 relief appearances, he was installed in the rotation and made 20 starts, finishing the year 11-5 with a 2.67 ERA and 202 strikeouts in only 131.2 IP, good for a 3.7 rWAR season.  The Braves liked what they saw and rewarded Strider with his deal.  It covers two pre-Arb years, three Arb years and one FA year, with an option for a second.

6.  Michael Harris, 8 years, $72 mm (2023-30)(ages 22-29) and options for 2030-31 at $15 mm/$20 mm (ages 30-31).  A 3^rd round pick out of high school in 2019, Harris had risen to BA’s no. 46 prospect entering 2022.   He debuted on May 28, and despite that late start, earned 5.3 rWAR in 114 games, making him the front runner for NL ROY, which would earn him a full year of service time.   Again the Braves moved quickly and locked up Harris.   This is another deal that at first blush looks highly favorable for the Braves.   It covers two pre-Arb years, three Arb years and three FA years, with options for two more.

7.  Yoan Moncada, 5 years, $70 mm (2020-24)(ages 25-29) and option for 2025 at $25 mm (age 30).   Here’s the first deal that looks more likely than not to be a loser.   Moncada debuted for the Red Sox at the end of the 2016 season and was traded to the White Sox that winter in the Chris Sale deal, entering 2017 at age 22 as BA’s no. 2 prospect.  The White Sox brought him up in mid-July and he put up 1.7 rWAR in 54 games.  In 2018 he had his first full season in the big leagues and struggled a bit, earning only 1.4 rWAR.   He broke out the next year, accruing 5.2 rWAR in 132 games despite spending 3 weeks on the IL.   That offseason, with 2.106 years of service time, he was still a year away from arbitration and four years from free agency when the White Sox gave him his deal. It covered one pre-Arb year, three Arb years and one FA year, with options for two more.  Moncada hasn’t reached his 2019 level since, earning 0.6 rWAR in COVID-shortened 2020, 4.0 rWAR in 2021, and only 1.0 rWAR in 2022.  I’d say his salaries of $6.8 mm in 2021 and $13.8 mm this year exceeded what he would have earned going year by year in Arb 1 and 2, and the $17.8 mm he’ll earn next year certainly exceeds what he would have earned in Arb 3.  We’ll see how 2023 goes, but it’s questionable that the $24.8 mm he’ll earn in 2024 would be something the ChiSox would have been willing to pay him as a free agent, or that the 2025 option at $25 mm will be exercised when the time comes.  

8.  Ke’Bryan Hayes, 8 years, $70 mm (2022-29)(ages 25-32) and option for 2030 (age 33) at $12 mm.  Hayes was a 1^st round pick out of high school in 2015, and rose to be BA’s no. 15 prospect by 2021, following a short debut in 2020 when he managed to post 1.9 rWAR in only 24 games, finishing 6^th in the NL ROY voting in the COVID-shortened season.   He followed that up with 2.4 rWAR in 96 games in 2021, missing 52 games early in the season with a wrist injury.  The Pirates locked him up the next offseason, when he had 1.075 years of service, getting three of his FA years and an option on a fourth.  Hayes responded in 2022 with a 4.3 rWAR season that was largely fueled by great defensive numbers, as his 87 OPS+ will attest.   He battled an injured back for large portions of the year, playing in 136 games.   

9.  Luis Robert, 6 years, $50 mm (2020-25)(ages 22-27) and options for 2026-27 at $20 mm/$20 mm (ages 28-29).  Robert was a Cuban refugee who was paid a $26 mm by the White Sox as a 19-year old.  In addition, the ChiSox had to pay a $26 mm penalty for exceeding the international cap.  He rose to be BA’s no. 2 prospect going into 2020, and Chicago signed him to his long term deal before he’d played a major league game.   In his rookie year, shortened by the COVID restrictions, he put up 1.8 rWAR, finishing 2^nd in the AL ROY race and winning a Gold Glove in CF.  In 2021 he had a good start but spent from May 3 to August 8 on the DL with a torn right hip flexor, finishing very strong to earn 3.6 rWAR in only 68 games.   In 2022 he was also banged up a lot, including a bout with COVID, blurred vision and a series of wrist and hand injuries, playing only 98 games but earning 2.1 rWAR in that span.   Right now, it looks like his contract could be an overpay, even disregarding the $52 mm the White Sox paid to acquire his services before he reached the minors.   But, he’s been very good when healthy and could still end up justifying his current contract and giving Chicago reason to exercise the options when they come around four years from now – we’ll see.  

10.  Blake Snell, 5 years, $50 mm (2019-23)(ages 26-30).  A first round supplemental pick in 2011 out of high school, Snell entered 2016 as BA’s no. 12 prospect, and made one late April start before returning to the Rays in mid-June, tossing 89 innings in 19 starts and earning 0.8 rWAR.   In 2017, he had a rough start to the year and was demoted to AAA for six weeks from mid-May to late June, but eventually had a 1.3 rWAR season in 24 starts spanning 129.1 innings.   2018 was a completely different story, as Snell won the AL Cy Young award, leading the league in wins (21) and ERA (1.89) and striking out 221, good for 7.1 rWAR.   That’s when the Rays rewarded him with his contract, which bought out one year of free agency and had no options.   He had 2.072 years of service at the time.  Since then, Snell has looked more like the 2016-17 version than the Cy Young version, compiling seasons of 1.4 rWAR in 2019 and 1.0 in the COVID-shortened 2020 before being traded to the Padres.  Since then, he’s had seasons of 1.4 and 2.1 rWAR.  I’d say he’s been overpaid by $5-8 mm compared to what he would have earned going year to year in arbitration.  Snell will earn $16 mm in the final year of his deal, and if he had been a free agent instead, I doubt he would have gotten a $16 mm AAV deal or a long contract, since he hasn’t thrown more than 128.2 innings since his Cy Young year four years ago, and his ERA+ has been a modest 104 in that span.  So, I regard this deal as a modest loser, though not a terrible disaster.  My feelings could change depending how 2023 goes.

 

Edited October 17, 2022 by Frobby

[Frobby]

A few observations about the top ten:

1.  Five of the contracts were handed out by the Braves (nos. 4-6) and the White Sox (7 and 9).   They’ve also done smaller deals I’ll get to later.  

2.  Six of the contracts were given to players who were ranked among the top three prospects in baseball at one time, the exceptions being Strider (5 on the list above), Harris (6), Hayes (8) and Snell (10).

3.  Nine of the ten were awarded only after the player had made a successful debut in the majors, with Robert (9) the only exception.  Tatis, Moncada and Snell had two years of service; Rodriguez, Acuna, Strider, Harris and Hayes had a full year (or close) in; and Franco had a little over half a year in.  

4. Tatis, Franco, Acuna, and Robert  have all been hampered by pretty significant injuries at some point after signing their deals, and Hayes has had some dings as well.   Tatis also has the PED issue hanging over him.  Considering that the ink is barely dry on the Rodriguez, Strider and Harris deals, all of which go into effect next year, that’s five of the other seven where injuries have hindered the player.   Hopefully they will all overcome them.

5.  Eight of the ten deals were given to position players, with Strider and Snell the exceptions. 
 

Edited October 17, 2022 by Frobby

[Jim'sKid26]

Just want to go record as saying that this type of content is found on no other message board of which I am aware. This is pure gold. Thank you, FRobby.

[Frobby]

I realized that I mistakenly left Ke'Bryan Hayes (8/$70 mm) and Blake Snell (5/$50 mm) out of the top 10, so I have edited my top 10 post to include them and omit Jimenez and Marquez, though I could argue that the latter two deals could be more lucrative than Snell's because they have options and Snell's does not.   I also edited my post commenting on some of the trends in the top 10 to account for those changes.   Jimenez and Marquez will lead off the second ten.

[Hallas]

This is a great breakdown.  Minor point though, Julio Rodriguez's contract is technically 12/209 with an opt-out after year 7 that he's pretty much guaranteed to exercise if he has all 4 limbs functioning.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Hallas said:

This is a great breakdown.  Minor point though, Julio Rodriguez's contract is technically 12/209 with an opt-out after year 7 that he's pretty much guaranteed to exercise if he has all 4 limbs functioning.

Thanks.  I just took my info from BB-ref.  As I recall, Rodriguez’s deal is quite complicated and the value of the options /opt out years can vary depending on his performance.  I didn’t look up the exact details.  Now that your post reminds me of them, I guess this deal is likely to be bigger than Franco’s, and possibly bigger than Tatis’ if Seattle exercises its team option.  Honestly, it’s kind of insane  .  I think I’ll just leave it where it is on the list, though odds are it will be no. 1 or 2 when all is said and done.  

[Sports Guy]

Good research but the question of, was it worth it to sign these guys won’t be answered until really they reach theater arb years (ie did you get a big discount for those years) and their FA years (ie was it worth it to lock them up for those years at a seemingly reduced price?)

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Good research but the question of, was it worth it to sign these guys won’t be answered until really they reach theater arb years (ie did you get a big discount for those years) and their FA years (ie was it worth it to lock them up for those years at a seemingly reduced price?)

Yes, I agree with you.  I mostly did this to get a sense of just how common these deals are.   Of the top ten, only Moancada and Snell are really far enough along to be sonewhat confident in judging the outcome, and even there it’s not certain yet.   I have a pretty good feeling that Acuna and Albies will turn out to be steals for the Braves, but it’s still too soon to be sure. 

When I do nos. 11-30, there will be some where the outcome is obvious.  Also, I’ve compiled an incomplete list of now-completed deals, some of which turned out ridiculously well for the team (e.g. the original deals for Evan Longoria, Jose Altuve and Jose Ramirez), that I’ll post at some point.  

I figure this is one of those threads I’ll be bumping once a year in the offseason to see how these deals are progressing.  

 

[justcompete]

How many of these Pre-Arb contracts were handed out to catchers?

Can't see a very long contract handed out to such a demanding position.

 

[Sports Guy]

I will say this. I think the most overstated thing that will be said on this site and by Os fans all offseason will be “we have to sign Henderson and Adley now”

Now they don’t. I’m not against it by any means but they aren’t the priority this offseason.  You should still be able to negotiate with them while improving the team but making this team a real contender in 2023 while also setting them up long term is easily the top priority.

[foxfield]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I will say this. I think the most overstated thing that will be said on this site and by Os fans all offseason will be “we have to sign Henderson and Adley now”

Now they don’t. I’m not against it by any means but they aren’t the priority this offseason.  You should still be able to negotiate with them while improving the team but making this team a real contender in 2023 while also setting them up long term is easily the top priority.

While I agree with this comment entirely.  I think this winter will give some real clarity to how Elias intends to manage and secure the future.  I also think it will give clarity as to what budget he is actually allowed to work with going forward.   Elias has stated that managing success long term is his goal.  That can certainly be done with or without locking up the kids.  And since it is unrealistic to think that he will be given a blank check book, it will be interesting to see how quickly Elias is willing to spend assets instead of dollars.

But great info in this thread Frobby.  Thank you.

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, foxfield said:

While I agree with this comment entirely.  I think this winter will give some real clarity to how Elias intends to manage and secure the future.  I also think it will give clarity as to what budget he is actually allowed to work with going forward.   Elias has stated that managing success long term is his goal.  That can certainly be done with or without locking up the kids.  And since it is unrealistic to think that he will be given a blank check book, it will be interesting to see how quickly Elias is willing to spend assets instead of dollars.

But great info in this thread Frobby.  Thank you.

I don’t think it’s Any kind of clarity at all. If Elias doesn’t lock these guys up it means nothing.