Multi-year contracts, and locking up pre-Arb players

[foxfield]

13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t think it’s Any kind of clarity at all. If Elias doesn’t lock these guys up it means nothing.

Well, by clarity, I mean he can either take an approach like Atlanta regarding the future or he can take one like Tampa Bay.  Doing nothing does not mean success or failure.  And how he handles the kids is not necessarily how he will approach new talent, which can be purchased with cash or with physical assets.

And, if he also cannot spend more than say....25 million in the offseason on FA....well that is another type of clarity.

He has said, they intend to improve the club to compete in the AL East.  I do think his actions, which could cover several different styles, will give some clarity on how he intends to manage the Orioles future.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, foxfield said:

Well, by clarity, I mean he can either take an approach like Atlanta regarding the future or he can take one like Tampa Bay. 

I don’t think Tampa is really a good example.  They’ve actually locked up quite a few young players over the years.  They haven’t always kept the guys they locked up for the entire length of their contracts.  Just last winter they gave 11/$182 mm to Franco.   

[Frobby]

I'm back with the "middle class" pre-Arb contract extensions.   Here are nos. 11-20:

11.  Eloy Jimenez, 6 years, $43 mm (2019-24) (ages 22-27) with options for 2025-26 (ages 28-29) at $16.5 mm and $18.5 mm.   A Dominican amateur signee who received about $3.05 mm to sign in 2013, Jimenez rose to be BA’s no. 3 prospect going into 2019.  He was signed to his current contract before playing in the majors; it covers all his pre-FA years and has options for two FA years.  He had a 1.5 rWAR rookie campaign in 2019, followed by a strong 1.4 rWAR season in COVID-shortened 2020.  Since then, though, he has struggled to stay on the field, playing only 55 games in 2021 due to surgery on a ruptured pectornal tendon (0.7 rWAR) and 84 games in 2022 due to surgery to repair a torn hamdstring tendon (1.7 rWAR), which would have been his Arb 1 season.  His $7.3 mm salary in Arb 1 surely exceeds what he would have received going year by year, and his upcoming $10.3 mm salary in what would have been his Arb 2 season will exceed what he would have earned as well.  So, this deal is underwater for the ChiSox so far, but could turn around if Jimenez can stay on the field.

12.  German Marquez, 5 years, $43 mm (2019-23)(ages 24-28) with a $16 mm option for 2024 (age 29).  Marquez debuted late in 2016 and was BA’s no. 53 prospect going into 2017.  He had a 3.5 rWAR rookie campaign, followed by 4.1 rWAR sophomore season in 2018, making 62 starts over those two seasons.  At that point, with Marquez at 2.027 years of service the Rockies offered the pre-Arb extension, which covers one year of free agency and has an option for a second season.   Since then, Marquez has continued to be a reliable starter, missing only a handful of starts while earning 2.8, 1.5, 2.3 and 1.4 rWAR and putting up a 107 ERA+ in that time while getting paid a total of $15.8 mm over those four years, which I’d say is at least $5 mm less than he would have earned going year-by-year, maybe more like $8-10 mm less.   Now the Rockies get a FA year at a relatively cheap $13.8 mm, and have a $16 mm option for one more if they choose to exercise it.   This deal is a win for the Rockies IMO.

13.  Ozzie Albies, 7 years, $35 mm (2019-25)(ages 22-28) with options for 2026-27 (ages 29-30) at $7 mm/$7 mm.  Albies entered 2017 as BA’s no. 11 prospect and made an August debut as a 20-year old, earning 1.3 rWAR in only 57 games.  In 2018, he was worth 4.1 rWAR and was an all-star.   At that point, with 1.062 years of service, Atlanta locked him up through his first two FA years, with options on two more.   The deal was universally regarded as ridiculously favorable to the Braves, as none of Albie’s annual salaries exceed $7 mm, even in the option years.  Since then, in his two remaining pre-Arb years, Albies posted 4.9 rWAR in 2019 and 0.7 in 29 games in the COVID-shortened season, missing half the shrot season with a bone bruise on his wrist.  He had a healthy 2021 in what would have been his Arb 1 season, earning 3.4 rWAR and earning an all-star nod.  In 2022, he played in only 64 games, suffering a broken foot and then later a broken pinkie.   He was worth 0.9 rWAR when healthy.  Despite the injuries, this deal has still favored the Braves vs. how he would have fared in arbitration, and the most favorable years should be yet to come.   If he stays healthier, still a big win for the Braves. 

14.  Stephen Piscotty, 6 years, $33.5 mm (2017-22)(ages 26-31) with a $15 mm option for 2023 (age 32).  Okay, here’s a stinker.  Piscotty was a 1^st round supplemental pick in 2012 out of Stanford.  He reached BA’s no. 79 prospect going into 2015.   He debuted in July that year, posting a somewhat promising 0.9 rWAR in a bit under half a season.  He followed that up with a 2.8 rWAR sophomore campaign, and that was enough to convince the Cardinals to offer him a long-term deal that extended through one FA season and gave an option for a second.  In his two remaining pre-Arb years, 2017-18, he posted 0.4 and 2.9 rWAR, getting traded to Oakland for the second of those.  He was paid $2.66 mm for that, instead of the usual $1.1 mm or so, and that would have earned him something like $3-4 mm in Arb 1 (2019) going year by year, but he was paid $7.33 mm under his contract.   It got worse from there, as Piscotty produced only 0.9 rWAR in 2019, then 0.0, 0.7, and -0.8 rWAR in 2020-22, earning his release from the A’s this August, all while earning $7.33 – 7.58 mm/yr.  He almost certainly would have been non-tendered after 2019 or 2020 if that had been an option for the A’s.   All in all, he produced 2.8 rWAR for $33.5 mm under his deal, and probably made $25-30 mm more than he would have made going year-by-year.

15.  Paul DeJong, 6 years, $26 mm 2018-23 (ages 24-29) with team options at $12.5 mm and $15 mm for 2024-25 (ages 30-31).  DeJong was a 4^th round pick in 2015 and rose pretty quickly to the majors, debuting on May 28, 2017 and posting an .857 OPS and 2.7 rWAR in only 108 games.   With 127 days of service, it was borderline whether he’d be a Super-2 going into 2020.  The Cardinals wasted no time and locked him up  through his Arb years, with options for two FA seasons.  For the next two years, DeJong made that decision look brilliant, posting 3.9 and 5.3 rWAR seasons.   As it turns out, DeJong would have been a Super-2, and would have exceeded his $1.67 mm salary for 2020 by a couple of million dollars.   But DeJong fell on some hard times after that, posting a .671/0.4 rWAR season in Covid-shortened 2020 and .674/1.6 rWAR in 2021.  In 2022, he got sent down to AAA after posting a .417 OPS in the first 28 games of the season.  He was recalled in late July and posted a .596 OPS the rest of the way, for a .530 OPS/0.2 rWAR season.   He’ll be paid $9.17 mm next year, surely more than he’d have gotten going year-by-year after a season like that.  In fact, he’d likely have been non-tendered.  This deal has turned out to be a loser for the Cardinals, and it’s unlikely they’ll exercise the options on DeJong’s contract barring a huge comeback in 2023.

16.  David Fletcher, 5 years, $26 mm (2021-25)(ages 28-31) and team options for 2026-27 (ages 32-33) at $8 mm and $8.5 mm.   Fletcher was a 6^th round pick in 2015.   He debuted in June 2018, a little too late for Super-2, and posted 1.8 rWAR in 80 games.  He followed that up with 3.8 rWAR in 2019 and 2.0 rWAR in Covid-shortened 2020.  That’s when the Angels locked him up, still a year away from arbitration, to a contract that covered one FA season and with options on two more.   He’s regressed from there, posting 1.8 rWAR in 2021 and 1.1 in 2022.  This is still a cheap enough contract, and the options are attractive enough, that it’s too early to say this is a bad contract.  Let’s just say it hasn’t worked out like the Angels would have liked in the first two years.

17.  Jorge Polanco, 5 years, $25.75 mm (2019-23)(ages 25-29), with vesting/team options for 2024-25 ($10.5 and $12 mm).   Signed as an international amateur, Polanco got a cup of coffee with the Twins in 2014 and 2015, and was ranked BA’s no. 99 prospect going into 2016.  He played in 80 games that year, and finished with 0.4 rWAR and 105 total days of service.   The next two seasons, he was worth 1.4 and 0.9 rWAR, missing half the season in 2018 with a PED suspension.   I’m not sure what the Twins saw at that point, but they must have been clairvoyant to lock him up for one FA season and options on two more.  Polanco put up a 4.7 rWAR season in 2019 that would have set him up well for Arb 1 in 2020, 0.2 rWAR in Covid-shortened 2020, then 4.9 rWAR in 2021 and 2.8 rWAR in 2022 despite missing about 6-7 weeks with injuries.  Instead of being a free agent this winter, Polanco is under contract at a very reasonable $7.5 mm next year, and then the Twins have the two options.  This deal has been a solid win for the Twins, and could get better.  The 2024 option becomes guaranteed if Polanco gets 550 PA in 2023. 

18.  Tim Anderson, 6 years, $25 mm (2017-22)(ages 24-29) and team options for 2023 and 2024 (ages 30-31) at $12.5 mm and $14 mm.  Anderson was the White Sox’s 1^st rounder in 2013 out of high school.  Going into 2016, he was BA’s no. 45 prospect.  He debuted on June 10, making him an unlikely candidate for Super-2 status after 2018.   He was worth 2.4 rWAR in 99 games, finishing 7^th in the ROY voting.   That was enough for the White Sox to lock him up for a contract that covered his Arb years and gave the team options for two FA season.   Anderson posted seasons of -0.4, 3.7 and 4.2 rWAR the next three years, and winning the 2019 batting title, which would have set him up for a nice Arb 1 salary in 2020.   He was spectacular in Covid-shortened 2020, posting 2.3 rWAR and finishing 7^th in the MVP voting.  He had a 4.8 rWAR season in 2021.  The White Sox definitely saved several million dollars through his Arb years.  In 2022 he was hurt part of the year and posted only 1.3 rWAR in 79 games.   I’d still say it’s a no-brainer for the White Sox to exercise his 2023 option for $12.5 mm, unless they are going to chase Correa or Turner.  

19.  Myles Straw, 5 years, $25 mm (2022-26)(ages 27-31) and team options for 2027-28 (ages 32-33) for $8 mm and $8.5 mm.  Straw was drafted by the Astros in the 12^th round in 2015 and debuted in the majors briefly in 2018.  He had partial season2 with the Astros in 2019-20, finally becoming a full-time player in 2021 and being traded to Cleveland at the deadline.  He finished that year with 1.8 rWAR and 2.112 years of service, still short of arbitration eligibility.   Cleveland liked what they saw well enough to lock him up through his first FA season, will options on two more.   In 2022, Straw hit terribly (.564 OPS) but still managed to be worth 2.7 rWAR based on very strong defense that earned him a Gold Glove nomination.  It’s much too early to know how this contract will turn out, but I’m sure the Guardians weren’t expecting a .564 OPS when they locked Straw up, even though he’s a weak hitter (.684 career OPS coming into 2022).  

20. Scott Kingery, 6 years, $24 mm (2018-23)(ages 24-29) with team options for 2024-26 at $13/14/15 mm (ages 30-32).    Drafted by the Phillies in 2015, Kingery was BA’s no. 31 prospect coming into 2018.   The Phillies locked him up before he ever played in the majors, in a contact that covered his Arb years and gave team options for three FA years.  The contract has been a disaster, as Kingery has provided 0.5 rWAR in the first five years of the deal.  The Phillies actually had outrighted him in June 2021 and again this year after calling him up for one game.   Certainly one of the worst deals out there.   Kingery will earn $8.25 mm next season.

As I count it, four look like wins (Marquez, Albies, Polanco, Anderson), three look like losses (Piscotty, DeJong, Kingery) and three are TBD but not off to a good start (Jimenez, Fletcher, Straw).  

I still have ten more to post, all at $24 mm or less.  I'll get to those later.

[Frobby]

Here's my final entry listing  players who were locked up long terms before they ever reached their arbitration years.   We're down to the cheaper contracts now.

21.  Evan White, 6 years, $24 mm (2020-25)(ages 24-29) with team option for 2026-28 at $10/11/12.5 mm ages 30-32).   White was the Mariners’ first round pick in 2017, and after 2 years in the minors, was ranked BA’s no. 54 prospect going into 2020.   By then, and without having played in the majors, Seattle had inked him to his deal, potentially covering all of his Arb years and with options for three FA seasons.  It hasn’t worked out for Seattle so far, as White has been worth -0.6 rWAR and has only played in 80 major league games in the first three years of his contract.  In 2022 he missed the start of the season with a sports hernia, and then suffered a recurring problem with hip soreness.

22.  Brandon Lowe, 6 years, $24 mm (2019-24)(ages 24-29) with team options for 2025-26 (ages 30-31) at $10.5 mm and $11.5 mm.  Lowe was Tampa’s 3^rd round pick in 2015 and debuted in the majors in August 2018, acquitting himself well (.774 OPS) in 43 games and clinging to rookie status.   He entered 2019 as BA’s no. 93 prospect, and Tampa signed him to a deal that covered all of his Arb years with options for two FA seasons.   He was worth 2.9 rWAR in his rookie season, despite playing only 82 games, and finished 3^rd in the ROY voting.   He followed that up with 2.4 rWAR in COVID-shortened 2020, gathering enough MVP votes to finish 8^th.   Then in 2021, he had a 4.7 rWAR campaign, which would have set him up for a nice Arb 1 salary if he weren’t already under contract for $4 mm in 2022.   This year, he suffered a lower back injury and played only 65 games, worth 1.0 rWAR.  He’ll only be paid $5.25 mm in 2023 and $8.75 mm, so this contract is still on track to be a good one if Lowe can recover from the back injury, but it has to go in the “too soon to tell” category for now

23.  Whit Merrifield, 5 years, $23 mm (2019-23)(ages 30-34) and 2024 mutual option at $18 mm (age 35).  A very late bloomer, Merrifield was drafted in the 9^th round in 2010 and debuted in the majors in 2016 as a 27-year old, posting 1.5 rWAR in 81 games.  He had seasons of 3.2 and 4.5 rWAR in 2017-18, but was still not arbitration eligible going into 2019.  The Royals locked him up then, through one year of free agency, with a mutual option at a very high strike price.   In the first year of his deal was worth 3.6 rWAR, which would have set him up nicely for Arb 1, but probably not better than the $5 mm he received under his contract.   He had an 0.8 rWAR season in COVID-shortened 2020, and his $6.75 mm for Arb 2 was probably about right.  In 2021, he had another 3.6 rWAR year, and his $7 mm contract for 2022 was definitely on the low side IMO.   So, through his Arb years, I’m going to say Merrifield’s contract was a mild winner for the Royals.  However, 2022 was not a good season for Merrifield as he played only 95 games and produced 0.1 rWAR.  He’s owed $6.75 mm for 2023, maybe a bit higher than his market value but probably not far off.  All in all, I’m going to call this deal a very modest win for the Royals, though they traded Merrifield for 23-year old pitcher and 23-year old hitting prospect at the trade deadline.

24.  Aaron Ashby, 5 years, $20.5 mm (2023-27)(ages 25-29) with team options for 2028-29 (ages 30-31) at $9 mm and $13 mm.    Ashby was a 4^th round pick by the Brewers in 2018 and debuted in the majors in June 2021, making one start and getting sent back down before being called up for good in mid-August, earning 46 days of service, just beyond rookie status.  In July 2022, the Brewers signed him to his deal, which runs through his Arb years and has options for two FA years.   He ended up having an uninspiring 2022, valued at -0.5 rWAR (89 ERA+).   It’s way too soon to know how this one will pan out, though he seems like kind of an odd choice to lock up.

25.  Emmanuel Clase, 5 years, $20 mm (2022-26)(ages 24-28) and team options for 2027-28 (ages 29-30) at $10 mm each.   Signed by Texas as an amateur, Chase debuted in August 2019, throwing to a 226 ERA+ in 21 games valued at 0.9 rWAR.   He was traded with Delino DeShields Jr. to the Guardians for Corey Kluber that offseason, but missed all of 2020 with a PED suspension.   In 2021, Cleveland installed him as their closer and he had a fantastic season, 331 ERA+ and 24 saves, worth 2.9 rWAR.  That’s when Cleveland signed him through his Arb years, with options for two FA seasons.  Clase was great again in 2022, throwing to a 281 ERA+ with a league-leading 42 saves, worth 2.8 rWAR.   He still has one more would-be pre-Arb season to go, so it’s too early to know how the contract will pan out, but the first year certainly was encouraging.

26.  Aaron Bummer, 5 years, $16 mm (2020-24)(ages 26-30) and team options for 2025-26 (ages 31-32) at $7.25 and $7.5 mm.   Bummer was a 19^th round pick of the White Sox in 2014, debuting in late July 2017 with a non-descript 0.2 rWAR season.   He spent part of 2018 in the minors after a June demotion, returning in September, and was worth -0.1 rWAR.  He had a breakout season in 2019, throwing to a 216 ERA+ in 67.2 innings, worth 2.8 rWAR.   At that point, with 1.150 years of service, he was set to be a Super-2 in 2021, and the White Sox locked him up for one pre-Arb and four Arb years, with options for two FA seasons.   Since then, he has been solid but not always healthy.  He only threw 9 innings in COVID-shortened 2020, earning 0.4 rWAR that year.  In 2021, he had a so-so year, throwing to a 125 ERA+ in 56.1 innings, valued at 0.5 rWAR.  In 2022, he pitched well (170 ERA+) but missed half the season with a lat strain, earning 0.6 rWAR.  Having earned $2 mm as a Super-2 and $2.5 mm in Arb 2, I’d say he’s been mildly overpaid compared to what he’d have earned in arbitration going year-by-year, but it’s still too early to judge this contract. 

27.  Freddy Peralta, 5 years, $15.5 mm (2020-24) with team options for 2025-26 at $8 mm each.   Signed by the Mariners as an international amateur, Peralta was traded to the Brewers after the 2015 season as part of a deal for Adam Lind.  He debuted in May 2018 at age 22 and was worth 0.5 rWAR that season.  2019 was a disappointment, as Peralta struggled as a starter and got sent to the bullpen, posting an 84 ERA+ valued at -0.7 rWAR.   Nevertheless, the Brewers saw something they liked, and signed Peralta through his Arb years, with two relatively cheap options.  Since then, Peralta had a decent year as a reliever in 2020, posting a 115 ERA+ good for 0.3 rWAR, and then the Brewers returned him to the rotation.   In 2021, he threw 144.1 innings at a 147 ERA+, worth 4.0 rWAR, which would have set him up nicely for Arb 1 in 2022.   In 2022, Peralta missed about half the season with shoulder injuries, throwing to a 110 ERA+ in 78 innings when healthy.   His 2023 salary at $3.7 mm is still reasonable, so right now I’d say this is still an OK deal for the Brewers, but it could go south if Peralta continues to have shoulder issues in 2023.

28.  David Bote, 5 years, $15 mm (2020-24)(ages 27-31) with team options for 2025-26 at $7 mm and $7.6 mm.  Bote was the Cubs’ 18^th rounder in 2012, and did not make it to the majors until late April 2018.  He played in 74 games that year and was worth 1.8 rWAR.   He followed that up with a solid 2019 campaign in which he was worth 2.2 rWAR.   That’s when the Cubs locked him up through his Arb years, with options for two FA years.  He still had two pre-Arb years to go at that point, and did not perform well in either of them, earning -0.1 and -0.6 rWAR, suffering a shoulder injury in 2021 that caused him to miss two months.   His $2.5 mm salary for 2022 is probably more than he’d have earned in Arb 1.  In 2022, he had shoulder surgery and played only 41 games, but did play well when available earning 0.9 rWAR in that short period.   Still, his $4 mm salary for 2023 is more than he’d have earned in Arb 2 after missing so much time.   So, this deal is a loser so far, but could be redeemed if Bote gets back on track.

29.  Jose LeClerc, 4 years, $14.75 mm (2019-22)(ages 25-28) with team options for 2023-24 (ages 29-30) at $6 mm and $6.25 mm.   Signed by the Rangers as an international amateur, LeClerc had a brief debut in 2016 at age 22 (0.4 rWAR in 15 innings), then spent almost all of 2017 in the majors, earning another 0.8 rWAR.  He had a breakout in 2018, throwing 57.2 inings at an ERA+ of 305, good for 2.6 rWAR.   With 2.041 years of service under his belt, the Rangers signed him to a deal that covered his Arb years and gave options on two FA season.  LeClerc wasn’t as good in 2019, throwing 68.2 innings at 120 ERA+ and getting demoted from the closer role for 3 months before regaining it in August.  His Arb 1 salary in 2020 of $2.75 mm was probably higher than he would have gotten in arbitration.   Then he missed all but 2 games in 2020 with a shoulder injury, all of 2021 with Tommy John surgery, and did not re-emerge until mid-June 2022.   He was reasonable effective for the remainder of 2022, throwing to an ERA+ of 140 in 47.1 IP, good for 0.9 rWAR.   Still, he unquestionably was paid way more in 2021-22 than he would have earned going year-to-year in arbitration, and might have been a nontender candidate.  So, this has worked out poorly for Texas.   It will be interesting to see if they exercise their $6 mm option for 2023, now that LeClerc appears to be healthy.

30.  Randy Dobnak, 5 years, $9.25 mm (2021-25)(ages 26-30) and 2026-2028 (ages 31-33) team options at $6/7/8.5 mm.  An undrafted free agent in 2017, Dobnak had a brief but nice debut in 2019, throwing to an ERA+ of 288 in 28.1 IP for 0.7 rWAR.  In COVID-shortened 2020, he made 10 starts to an ERA+ of 107, for 0.4 rWAR.  That’s when the Twins locked him up through his Arb years, plus options on three FA seasons.   Things have not gone well since.   Dobnak threw only 50.2 innings in 2021, to a 56 ERA+.  Then he missed all of 2022 with torn tendons in his finger, throwing a few minor league rehab innings before the end of the year but not returning to the majors.   Dobnak’s contract is so cheap that it could still work out in the end, but he’s certainly making more in Arb 1 next year ($1.5 mm) than he would have made if he’d gone to arbitration. 

Overall, I'd call this group of ten uninspiring, with the Lowe and Clase contracts having the best potential and the Merrifield one a moderate success.   Seven of these ten players have suffered fairly significant injuries since signing their deals that caused them to miss a half-season or more.   

 

[Frobby]

Here's a breakdown of the service time the 30 players had when their contracts were signed:

- 4 were signed before they had played in the majors

- 9 were signed with a year of service or less

- 8 were signed with more than one but less than two years of service.

- 9 were signed with more than two years of service, but not enough service to be a Super-2.  

The four contracts signed with players who had never played in the majors were Luis Robert (6/$50 mm), Eloy Jimenez (6/$43 mm), Scott Kingery (6/$24 mm) and Evan White (6/$24 mm).   Kingery has been a bust and White is looking like one.   Robert and Jimenez have played well when healthy but have missed significant time, and so far, probably would have made less going year-to-year but it's premature to say their contracts weren't worthwhile until we see how they play in their final Arb years and whether the options for the FA years are worth exercising.

[Frobby]

Here’s a brief summary of how 2023 went for the 30 pre-Arb extensions that were on the books as of the end of the 2022 season.   Bottom line: the Braves are very good at this, the White Sox are not (except for maybe the Luis Robert deal).

1.  Fernando Tatis Jr., 14 years, $340 mm, 2021-34 (ages 22-35).   Tatis came into 2023 with questions about how he would perform following his injuries and PED suspension.  He returned on April 20, stayed healthy all year, and put up a 5.5 rWAR, 4.4 fWAR season in what would have been his Arb 2 season, easily outearning his $7.7 mm salary.   So, this contract is on track so far.

2.  Wander Franco, 11 years, $182 mm (2022-32)(ages 21-32) plus option at $25 mm for 2033)(age 33).   All was going along nicely this year until Franco came under criminal investigation for allegedly having sex with a minor.   To that point, with a quarter of the season remaining Franco had already racked up 5.5 rWAR, 4.4 fWAR.   The contract was looking great, but now we will have to see if it’s fulfilled.

3.  Julio Rodriguez, 7 years, $119 mm (2023-29)(ages 22-28) plus 5-year player option for2030-34 (ages 29-33).   At 5.3 rWAR, 5.9 fWAR this year, this contract looks good in the early going.

4.  Ronald Acuna Jr., 8 years, $100 mm (2019-26)(ages 21-27) plus options for 2027-28 at $17 mm/$17 mm (ages 28-29).   This contract is so ridiculously cheap.   Acuna, who would have been in Arb 3 this year, was worth 8.1 rWAR, 8.3 fWAR this season, and was paid $17 mm.  By contrast, Juan Soto, who’s going year by year with roughly the same service time, was paid $23 mm.   Acuna will be criminally underpaid for the next 5 years at $17 mm/yr including options.

5.  Spencer Strider, 6 years, $75 mm (2023-28)(ages 24-29) plus option for 2029 at $22 mm (age 30).   Strider was worth 3.4 rWAR, 5.5 fWAR in what would have been his second pre-Arb season, so this contract is on track to be a winner for the Braves.

6.  Michael Harris, 8 years, $72 mm (2023-30)(ages 22-29) and options for 2030-31 at $15 mm/$20 mm (ages 30-31).  Harris had a solid 3.4 rWAR, 4.0 fWAR season in what would have been his second pre-Arb year, so early signs are good for this contract.

7.  Yoan Moncada, 5 years, $70 mm (2020-24)(ages 25-29) and option for 2025 at $25 mm (age 30).  I said last year that this one was looking like a loser, and it still is.  Moncada was paid $17.8 mm and was worth 0.6 rWAR, 1.2 fWAR this season.   Instead of being a free agent, he’ll be paid $24.8 mm next year.  Oops.

8.  Ke’Bryan Hayes, 8 years, $70 mm (2022-29)(ages 25-32) and option for 2030 (age 33) at $12 mm.     Despite missing three weeks with an injury, Hayes was still worth 4.0 rWAR, 3.3 fWAR in what would have been his final pre-Arb season.  His deal is heavily front-loaded, so he would have learned less in Arb 1 than he’ll get next year ($7 mm), but overall the contract is on track to provide a solid value.

9.  Luis Robert, 6 years, $50 mm (2020-25)(ages 22-27) and options for 2026-27 at $20 mm/$20 mm (ages 28-29).  Robert stayed healthy in 2023 and put up a 5.0 rWAR, 5.0 fWAR season in what would have been his Arb 1 year.  I believe he would have gotten less in arbitration than the $9.5 mm he was paid in 2023, and he probably wouldn’t have been awarded the $12.5 mm he’ll get next year either.  But, he produced good value, and the back end of this contract could be a winner for the Sox.

10.  Blake Snell, 5 years, $50 mm (2019-23)(ages 26-30).  I had previously said that Snell had been overpaid by $5-8 mm under this contract during his Arb years, compared to what he would have earned going year to year.   But this  year, in which Snell would have been a free agent, he was worth 6.0 rWAR, 4.1 fWAR, and was worth about double his $16.6 mm salary.  So, his deal flipped from negative territory into positive territory, and now it’s finished.

11.  Eloy Jimenez, 6 years, $43 mm (2019-24) (ages 22-27) with options for 2025-26 (ages 28-29) at $16.5 mm and $18.5 mm.   This deal was underwater coming into the year, and plunged further, as Jimenez was worth 0.3 rWAR, 0.4 fWAR in what would have been his Arb 2 season.  He earned $10.3 mm for that and will earn $13.3 mm next year, far more than he would have been paid in arbitration.  We’ll see if Jimenez does enough next year to tempt Chicago to exercise his option, but he’s not on pace to do it.

12.  German Marquez, 5 years, $43 mm (2019-23)(ages 24-28) with a $16 mm option for 2024 (age 29).  This deal already was a winner for the Rockies compared to going year by year, before this season began.  However, Marquez tore his UCL after 4 starts and underwent TJ surgery in May, so it’s now questionable whether exercising his $16 mm option for 2024 makes sense.  The deal was still a winner, but not as much as it could have been.

13.  Ozzie Albies, 7 years, $35 mm (2019-25)(ages 22-28) with options for 2026-27 (ages 29-30) at $7 mm/$7 mm.  In what would have been his Arb 3 season, Albies was paid $7 mm and was worth 4.7 rWAR, 4.0 fWAR.   The Braves have him for two more years at $7 mm each amd then have an option for 2 more years at that price.  Huge winner for the Braves.

14.  Stephen Piscotty, 6 years, $33.5 mm (2017-22)(ages 26-31) with a $15 mm option for 2023 (age 32).  To nobody’s surprise, the A’s did not pick up Piscotty’s option.  He signed a minor league deal with the White Sox, who released him in August. This contract stunk.

15.  Paul DeJong, 6 years, $26 mm 2018-23 (ages 24-29) with team options at $12.5 mm and $15 mm for 2024-25 (ages 30-31).   DeJong earned $9.2 mm this year, far more than he would have gotten in arbitration.   He was traded to the Blue Jays at the deadline, released three weeks later, signed by the Giants and released again four weeks after that.   Loser contract, and no options exercised.

16.  David Fletcher, 5 years, $26 mm (2021-25)(ages 28-31) and team options for 2026-27 (ages 32-33) at $8 mm and $8.5 mm (ages 32-33).  Fletcher played only 33 games in the majors this year and was worth 0.2 rWAR, 0.0 fWAR.  He was paid $6 mm htis year and will receive $6 mm and $6.5 mm the next two years.  Loster contract.

17.  Jorge Polanco, 5 years, $25.75 mm (2019-23)(ages 25-29), with vesting/team options for 2024-25 ($10.5 and $12 mm).   Polanco missed 53 games during two IL stints and only played 80 games total, but still was worth 2.0 rWAR, 2.0 fWAR.   He missed a 550 PA trigger that would have vested his 2024 option, and it wil be interesting to see if the Twins exercise the option anyway.  In any event, the deal was at least a mild winner for the Twins.

18.  Tim Anderson, 6 years, $25 mm (2017-22)(ages 24-29) and team options for 2023 and 2024 (ages 30-31) at $12.5 mm and $14 mm.  Though Anderson had bene hurt for about half of 2022, he played well enough when healthy for the White Sox to exercise his 2023 option.   But he was horrible this year, valued at -2.0 rWAR, -0.5 fWAR.  The original deal was solid, but the option didn’t work out and I’d be shocked if the Sox exercised their $14 mm option on 2024.

19.  Myles Straw, 5 years, $25 mm (2022-26)(ages 27-31) and team options for 2027-28 (ages 32-33) for $8 mm and $8.5 mm.  For whatever reason, Straw’s defense dropped way off in 2023, resulting in a 1.1 rWAR, 0.4 fWAR season in what would have been his Arb 1 season.  The $2.9 mm he earned this year probably exceeded by $500k - $1 mm what he would have been paid in arbitration, and the $4.9 mm he’ll get next year certainly will exceed what he would have gotten in Arb 2.  This is looking like a mild loser for the Guardians, but it could still become either a mild winner or a much bigger loser going forward.

20. Scott Kingery, 6 years, $24 mm (2018-23)(ages 24-29) with team options for 2024-26 at $13/14/15 mm (ages 30-32).    Kingery earned $8.25 mm to play in the Phillies’ minor league system this year.   I think it is safe to say his options will not be exercised!   Loser contract.

21.  Evan White, 6 years, $24 mm (2020-25)(ages 24-29) with team option for 2026-28 at $10/11/12.5 mm ages 30-32).   White spent two days in AAA and spent the rest of the year on the IL with a groin strain and then a second surgery on his left hip.  He earned $3 mm this year and is du$7 mm and $8 mm the next two years.  Loser contract even if he recovers.

22.  Brandon Lowe, 6 years, $24 mm (2019-24)(ages 24-29) with team options for 2025-26 (ages 30-31) at $10.5 mm and $11.5 mm.  Lowe had a 2.1 rWAR, 2.8 fWAR season for the Rays despite sending 35 games on the IL.  He earned $5.25 mm, which I suspect is more than he would have been paid in Arb 2 after playing only 65 games in 2022 due to injury.   He’ll earn $8.75 mm next year, which perhaps is also a little more than he would have earned in Arb 3.   But, its only a mild overpay at most, and the options could still prove worthwhile.

23.  Whit Merrifield, 5 years, $23 mm (2019-23)(ages 30-34) and 2024 mutual option at $18 mm (age 35).  Merrifield had a meh 0.8 rWAR, 1.5 fWAR season, and I’m sure the Blue Jays will decline his 2024 option, which carries a $500 k buyout.   I’d called this contract a very mild win for the team before the 2023 season was played even though he probably would have earned a little less in Arb 3 than he earned this season $6.75 mm, and nothing that happened changed anything. 

24.  Aaron Ashby, 5 years, $20.5 mm (2023-27)(ages 25-29) with team options for 2028-29 (ages 30-31) at $9 mm and $13 mm.    Ashby, who was paid $1.2 mm in what would have been his 2^nd pre-Arb season, underwent surgery for a torn labrum and was able to throw some minor league innings in September.  Not a good start to his contract.

25.  Emmanuel Clase, 5 years, $20 mm (2022-26)(ages 24-28) and team options for 2027-28 (ages 29-30) at $10 mm each.   On the one hand, Clase led the AL with 44 saves.   On the other, he blew 12 saves, most in the league by a wide margin.  His 79% save rate was not good, he had a decent but not great 3.22 ERA, and just generally was nowhere near as good in 2023 as he was previously.   It’s still too early to judge this deal, but this was a step backwards for Clase.

26.  Aaron Bummer, 5 years, $16 mm (2020-24)(ages 26-30) and team options for 2025-26 (ages 31-32) at $7.25 and $7.5 mm.   Was any pitcher ever so aptly named?   Bummer had a 6.79 ERA, -1.0 rWAR, 0.8 fWAR season.  He’d probably be a non-tender candidate if the White Sox were going year by year, but instead they’re obligated to pay him $5.5 mm next season.  Bummer.

27.  Freddy Peralta, 5 years, $15.5 mm (2020-24) with team options for 2025-26 at $8 mm each 2023.  Peralta stayed healthy and made 30 starts to a 3.86 ERA this year, worth 2.0 rWAR, 3.0 fWAR, at a cost of $3.7 mm.  He’ll earn $5.7 mm in what would have been his Arb 3 season next year, and the Brewers still hold two option years at prices that will be attractive if Peralta holds serve.  So, this contract is performing pretty well.

28.  David Bote, 5 years, $15 mm (2020-24)(ages 27-31) with team options for 2025-26 at $7 mm and $7.6 mm.  Following shoulder surgery in 2022, Bote played exclusively in AAA this year, earning $4 mm for his services.  He’ll earn $5.5 mm next year.   Loser contract unless something unforeseen happens in 2023.

29.  Jose LeClerc, 4 years, $14.75 mm (2019-22)(ages 25-28) with team options for 2023-24 (ages 29-30) at $6 mm and $6.25 mm.   This contract was a mild loser going into 2023, but the Rangers exercised their $6 mm option and were reward with a solid year, 57 innings at a 2.68 ERA, worth 1.4 rWAR, 0.9 fWAR.  That moves the contract back towards respectability and I have little doubt that Texas will exercise its option for 2024.

30.  Randy Dobnak, 5 years, $9.25 mm (2021-25)(ages 26-30) and 2026-2028 (ages 31-33) team options at $6/7/8.5 mm.  After surgery in 2022, Dobnak spent the whole season in the minors and threw to a 5.13 ERA, earning $1.5 mm in the process.  He’s due to earn $2.5 mm next year.  Looking like a loser deal.

Edited October 20, 2023 by Frobby

[Frobby]

I haven't heard about too many new pre-Arb extensions since I posted this thread last Oct. 15.  The only new one I recall, off the top of my head, is Corbin Carroll at 8 years, $111 mm for 2023-30 (ages 22-29) plus an option for 2031 at $28 mm (age 30).   Are there other new ones that anyone can recall?   I'm sure there will be some this winter.

Edit - looks like there’s been several: 

Hunter Greene 6/$53 mm & 1 option

Keibert Ruiz 8/$50 mm & 2 options

Andres Gimenez 7/$106.5 mm & 1 option

Garrett Whitlock 4/$18,5 mm & 2 options 

Trevor Stephan 4/$10 mm & 2 options

Andres Munoz 4/7.5 mm & 3 options 

 

Edited October 21, 2023 by Frobby

[OriolesMagic83]

On 10/17/2022 at 1:01 PM, foxfield said:

Well, by clarity, I mean he can either take an approach like Atlanta regarding the future or he can take one like Tampa Bay.  Doing nothing does not mean success or failure.  And how he handles the kids is not necessarily how he will approach new talent, which can be purchased with cash or with physical assets.

And, if he also cannot spend more than say....25 million in the offseason on FA....well that is another type of clarity.

He has said, they intend to improve the club to compete in the AL East.  I do think his actions, which could cover several different styles, will give some clarity on how he intends to manage the Orioles future.

If the O's don't sign their own players to extensions they are taking neither the Atlanta or Tampa approach because Tampa has signed a lot of players to extensions.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

If the O's don't sign their own players to extensions they are taking neither the Atlanta or Tampa approach because Tampa has signed a lot of players to extensions.

Or the Astros.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

17 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

If the O's don't sign their own players to extensions they are taking neither the Atlanta or Tampa approach because Tampa has signed a lot of players to extensions.

Well maybe when JA finally signs the OPACY lease extension we'll see the Orioles sign some of their young talent to early contract extensions. I'm not counting on it with all the whining JA does about teams revenues and costs.

Edited October 21, 2023 by OsFanSinceThe80s

[24fps]

5 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Well maybe when JA finally signs the OPACY lease extension we'll see the Orioles sign some of their young talent to early contract extensions. I'm not counting on it with all the whining JA does about teams revenues and costs.

The O's only have one contract on the books for 2025 that I can find and that's the retainer deal to Bautista for $1 million.  Other than that, $14.4 million in dead contracts for Davis, Cobb and Bonilla, then zip.

It's not just a question of extensions for existing Orioles, but it's long-term deals for free agents and everybody else.  2023 has been a good year to witness the downside of trying to spend your way to a championship - Mets, Padres, Yankees and a few others - and I'm not suggesting the O's go that route, it wouldn't do any good anyway.  But inflection points don't grow on trees and if the O's go into 2024 with nothing more than one-year FA contracts and arbitration raises, then that will send a very clear message about ownership's motivation, fancy explanations notwithstanding.  I don't fully understand the nuances of the OPACY lease issue, but if the team turns out to be just a vehicle for JA's financial, community, political, ego, whatever ambitions then God help us all.

[Gunnar]

That Acuna contract will be a great example for Boras to show Gunnar and convince him to get to Free Agency rather than sign an extension.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Gunnar said:

That Acuna contract will be a great example for Boras to show Gunnar and convince him to get to Free Agency rather than sign an extension.

Or it’s a great example of what not to sign, rather than not sign at all.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Or it’s a great example of what not to sign, rather than not sign at all.

He got very poor advice, as did Albies. That deal was dumb before the ink was dry.  But, I think he’ll survive.  

By the time Acuna finishes this contract, he’ll have earned about $124 mm, including the options.  Juan Soto, with about the same amount of service time, probably will have made at least $200 mm by then.  
 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

He got very poor advice, as did Albies. That deal was dumb before the ink was dry.  But, I think he’ll survive.  

By the time Acuna finishes this contract, he’ll have earned about $124 mm, including the options.  Juan Soto, with about the same amount of service time, probably will have made at least $200 mm by then.  
 

Most of the stuff you can buy with 200M you can buy with 124.