Is Jose Abreu a worthy target?

[Jim'sKid26]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

The whole Adley DH thing is completely overplayed on this board.

Ok, I'll bite! Can you explain this for us mere mortals....

 

Abreu is a risky sign. I agree that 2 years is max and a high AAV makes sense. After looking at Mountcastle's stats, he and Abreu are very different hitters.  

[LookinUp]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

His statcast numbers don’t show a player in decline.

Not that it's statcast, but he actually started really slow last year but picked it up between June-September.

He's a really good bat. I just feel like we should sign Abreu and move on from Mountcastle rather than rostering both.

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Not that it's statcast, but he actually started really slow last year but picked it up between June-September.

He's a really good bat. I just feel like we should sign Abreu and move on from Mountcastle rather than rostering both.

I can see that but they easily have room for both.

[oriole]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

The whole Adley DH thing is completely overplayed on this board.

He was at DH for about 20% of his games played. He can’t catch every game and he is arguably the best hitter on the team. That’s not insignificant, especially if you’re considering signing a full time DH for over $15m per year. 

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Ok, I'll bite! Can you explain this for us mere mortals....

 

Abreu is a risky sign. I agree that 2 years is max and a high AAV makes sense. After looking at Mountcastle's stats, he and Abreu are very different hitters.  

Explain what?  Adley is a C who will catch 115-125 games if he stays healthy.  He needs actual days off as well.  So, you are talking 20-30 games at DH. That’s easily done even if you have a DH guy.  Injuries will happen, guys need days off, etc…

Speaking of which, Abreu has been an extremely durable player in his career.  Availability is the most underrated ability.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Explain what?  Adley is a C who will catch 115-125 games if he stays healthy.  He needs actual days off as well.  So, you are talking 20-30 games at DH. That’s easily done even if you have a DH guy.  Injuries will happen, guys need days off, etc…

Speaking of which, Abreu has been an extremely durable player in his career.  Availability is the most underrated ability.

I'll be surprised if Adley starts 121+ regular season games at catcher under Elias.

How many players started 120 games at catcher last season?  I think it was one.

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, wildcard said:

From what I saw of him when the O's played the White Sox he is only a DH.   Very poor defensively at 1B.   I would rather have Mountcastle backed up with Westburg.

And as a DH, as you said, he would be a part time DH.  Would compete for at bats with Santander (when Stowers is in RF) and Adley (when he is not catching).    I would not say he has no value to the O's but it is limited.  We also have to realize that Norby is probably ready sometime in 2023 and his best position is bat.

If the O's trade someone like Santander or Stowers or Norby than  that might opens up some playing time.  But Abreu will cost more than any of these guys.

One year contract maybe with an option and I would not pay more than 6 to 10m depending of what the plan is for getting him playing time. 

I think you need to consider the fact that Abreu for years has been a much better hitter than Mountcastle or Santander, and that Westburg, Norby etc. are not likely to hit at that level.  

For me, the biggest issue here is whether Abreu is poised for a sharp decline.  If he isn’t, we definitely can use a 133 OPS+ bat in our lineup.  We managed to play Mancini almost every day and he wasn’t nearly the hitter Abreu has been.  The fact that hitters who aren’t as good would get fewer at bats isn’t really a problem to me.  
 

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think you need to consider the fact that Abreu for years has been a much better hitter than Mountcastle or Santander, and that Westburg, Norby etc. are not likely to hit at that level.  

For me, the biggest issue here is whether Abreu is poised for a sharp decline.  If he isn’t, we definitely can use a 133 OPS+ bat in our lineup.  We managed to play Mancini almost every day and he wasn’t nearly the hitter Abreu has been.  The fact that hitters who aren’t as good would get fewer at bats isn’t really a problem to me.  
 

Yea it’s funny how we had plenty of at bats for Trey and Mountcastle but we don’t have them for Mountcastle and Abreu.  

[StottyByNature]

I think Abreu makes a lot of sense, but not without another move.  He is a proven, reliable hitter and would not get a long-term contract, which would maintain our salary flexibility.

I think the issue is what to do with Mountcastle.  Abreu would be an upgrade as long as he is pretty much taking Mountcastle's AB's.  But that would also require either relegating Mountcastle to the bench or trading him.  I'm fine with trading him but also don't want to be trading just for the sake of getting rid of someone.  What we don't need is another logjam of DH's who can't really hit enough for the 1B position.  I think Abreu is better than that but something else would need to give.

[Frobby]

16 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea it’s funny how we had plenty of at bats for Trey and Mountcastle but we don’t have them for Mountcastle and Abreu.  

I guess the counterpoint is that we also have Stowers now, who in essence took Mancini’s spot.  But if Abreu is going to put up an OPS+ anywhere near 133, we will find the at bats.  

[LookinUp]

53 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I can see that but they easily have room for both.

In a vacuum, yes, but I don't think that's the case when you consider all positions.

If we have Mullins, Santander, Stowers, Hays, Westburg, Vavra, and one of Mateo/Urias it works.

When you add in Cowser, Ortiz and Norby, all of whom are close, you get to a point where you get a diminishing return on any $ spent on Abreu, plus a pressure not to play all of the right guys. See Stowers in 2022 for a perfect example. 

I just think Abreu can happen, but it works best in the context of several moves/decisions on who to go with. I hate the idea holding up Norby and Cowser, or not batting Stowers, etc. Stack the 25 man, but play them. Don't sit them all too much because Mountcastle has been here for years, or Mateo is penciled in as SS, or Hays is the incumbent.

Personally, I'd trade all of Mateo, Hays and Mountcastle. I'd be happy to sign Abreu and I'd go ahead and promote the AAA guys to start at SS/2b/LF, with Santander as DH most of the time.

[Ohfan67]

22 minutes ago, Frobby said:

If he isn’t, we definitely can use a 133 OPS+ bat in our lineup.  

Abreu would have led the 2022 Orioles in OPS+ and would have been second in WAR. If you can add Abreu without committing to three years and without significantly overpaying, then adding Abreu is worth the risk. 

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

In a vacuum, yes, but I don't think that's the case when you consider all positions.

If we have Mullins, Santander, Stowers, Hays, Westburg, Vavra, and one of Mateo/Urias it works.

When you add in Cowser, Ortiz and Norby, all of whom are close, you get to a point where you get a diminishing return on any $ spent on Abreu, plus a pressure not to play all of the right guys. See Stowers in 2022 for a perfect example. 

I just think Abreu can happen, but it works best in the context of several moves/decisions on who to go with. I hate the idea holding up Norby and Cowser, or not batting Stowers, etc. Stack the 25 man, but play them. Don't sit them all too much because Mountcastle has been here for years, or Mateo is penciled in as SS, or Hays is the incumbent.

Personally, I'd trade all of Mateo, Hays and Mountcastle. I'd be happy to sign Abreu and I'd go ahead and promote the AAA guys to start at SS/2b/LF, with Santander as DH most of the time.

I’m guessing that, regardless of Abreu, Elias is going to want Cowser and Norby to play longer in AAA.   Cowser only hit .219/.339/.428 in his 124 AAA at bats, with a 31% K rate; that doesn’t scream to put him on the OD roster.   He’ll need to go back to AAA and show significant improvement. I’m pretty confident he’ll do it, but he’s going to have to prove it. Norby hit very well in AAA, but it was only for 9 games, so Elias is going to want to see him hit well for a longer time, too.

One thing we need to realize is that the O’s offense was incredibly healthy last year.   The chances are probably 90% that the offense will suffer more injuries in 2023 than they had in 2021.    I’d rather have the problem of how to squeeze in playing time for guys who’ve earned it, as opposed to giving at bats to the Nevins and Aguilars of the world.  

[Sports Guy]

14 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I guess the counterpoint is that we also have Stowers now, who in essence took Mancini’s spot.  But if Abreu is going to put up an OPS+ anywhere near 133, we will find the at bats.  

Stowers should be getting everyday OF at bats though.

[Sports Guy]

14 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

In a vacuum, yes, but I don't think that's the case when you consider all positions.

If we have Mullins, Santander, Stowers, Hays, Westburg, Vavra, and one of Mateo/Urias it works.

When you add in Cowser, Ortiz and Norby, all of whom are close, you get to a point where you get a diminishing return on any $ spent on Abreu, plus a pressure not to play all of the right guys. See Stowers in 2022 for a perfect example. 

I just think Abreu can happen, but it works best in the context of several moves/decisions on who to go with. I hate the idea holding up Norby and Cowser, or not batting Stowers, etc. Stack the 25 man, but play them. Don't sit them all too much because Mountcastle has been here for years, or Mateo is penciled in as SS, or Hays is the incumbent.

Personally, I'd trade all of Mateo, Hays and Mountcastle. I'd be happy to sign Abreu and I'd go ahead and promote the AAA guys to start at SS/2b/LF, with Santander as DH most of the time.

Trades need to be made whether you add Abreu or not.

The Os fan fantasy that all of our younger players are going to develop and hit well and stay healthy is just that..a fantasy. It’s not reality.

You need to add some higher level vet bats to this team.

Now, I have said I want Abreu and Brantley.  That may be tough to do if you keep Mountcastle.