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Is Jose Abreu a worthy target?


Frobby

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36 vs 26 are the key numbers for me.  There is no way I'm essentially trading a 26 year-old with room for growth for a 36 year old with no room for growth and lots for decline. 

Now, if someone is giving up a significant piece that will be a big part of our future for Mountcastle, of course, go for it.  Have Kjerstad take a ton of reps at 1st in AA and AAA next year.  Sign Abreu to a one-year deal (no more please) as another overpriced veteran stop gap if you must.  I'd love to see Westburg getting lots of corner outfield reps too since I have more doubts about Hays long term than Mountcastle, myself.

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16 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

 I'd love to see Westburg getting lots of corner outfield reps too since I have more doubts about Hays long term than Mountcastle, myself.

Well, Mountcastle is younger by 19 months, and has been the better hitter (112 OPS+ vs. 104) in an equal number of at bats (1335 vs. 1383).   But Hays has the higher career WAR totals, 6.4 rWAR/4.6 fWAR to 3.2/.2.8.    Last year it was 2.3/1.5 for Hays, 1.2/1.6 for Mountcastle.  The age factor is important, and Mountcastle is a year behind on the service time clock, so he’s cheaper.   I’d guess I’d say I have doubts about both, but haven’t given up on either one of them, either.  

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I have zero interest in a 36 year old RH 1B/DH whose power already went MIA while not playing half of his games in nu-OPACY. I'd much rather have Josh Bell or Anthony Rizzo if we are signing one of the FA 1Bs since they are not RHBs.

5 hours ago, waroriole said:

Walltimore (I don’t like that name but don’t know a better way to call LF). 

A buddy of mine and I have been calling the new LF area "Camden Canyon" for the last few months.

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55 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

How about a bat and an arm at the same time?  And a LH bat at that? Go rent the Oh man!! 

Can we get three Arms before the first Bat?    

I just had a holy cow looking back at the 2011 Orioles and seeing Age 23 rookie Zach Britton threw 154 innings, so many more than I would have guessed for a career high without looking up.     (Minors Britton had completed 140+ innings in all of 2008, 2009 and 2010.)    That was the eve of the Hammel-Chen-Gonzalez offseason, and about where I think we are now.

For comparison's sake, here's how the '11 and '22 offensive cores lined up side by side by OPS+ (I'll fudge and call Gunnar not Odor one of the starting infielders for forecasting sake, the '11 Orioles had Manny in their hip pocket).

2011: Reynolds 116, Hardy 114, Jones 111, Reimold 111, Wieters 110, Markakis 106, Vlad 98, Lee 91, Andino 84

2022: Adley 128, Gunnar 123, Santander 117, Mancini 113, Mountcastle 105, Mullins 104, Hays 103, Urias 103, Mateo 81

At a guess, Trey Mancini might provide stronger $$$/WAR than Abreu in 2023 for price-sensitive Clubs...

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Equating Mountcastle to Abreu defensively is a joke IMO.   Abreu had an .989  fielding percentage with 11 errors.  That is last (18th) of all the qualifying  1B in the majors.   Mountcastle has 5 errors and a .995 fielding percentage.  He ranked 8th among qualifying 1B.

And the errors are just a indicator of a 1B overall defensive ability.  A good 1B saving the rest of the infielders errors with his fielding ability.  A bad 1B just add to the whole infields errrors.

Bottom line.  Mountcastle is a 1B.  Abreu is a DH.  Abreu is competing with Santander and Adley for  DH at bats.   Not Mountcastle.

So looking at how much the O's want  Stowers and Cowser to play the outfield in 2023 is important.  Because they are the two players pushing Santander to DH.

To me Stowers and Cowser look like the near future.  Both should get a decent amount of at bats in the majors.   36 year old Abreu is in decline.  He potentially adds some offense at DH in 2023.   But when a player is in decline a one year contract with an option is about as far as the O's should go with they go at all.

Edited by wildcard
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4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Equating Mountcastle to Abreu defensively is a joke IMO.   Abreu had an .989  fielding percentage with 11 errors.  That is last (18th) of all the qualifying  1B in the majors.   Mountcastle has 5 errors and a .995 fielding percentage.  He ranked 8th among qualifying 1B.

And the errors are just a indicator of a 1B overall defensive ability.  A good 1B saving the rest of the infielders errors with his fielding ability.  A bad 1B just add to the whole infields errrors.

Bottom line.  Mountcastle is a 1B.  Abreu is a DH.  Abreu is competing with Santander and Adley for  DH at bats.   Not Mountcastle.

So looking at how much the O's want  Stowers and Cowser to play the outfield in 2023 is important.  Because they are the two players pushing Santander to DH.

To me Stowers and Cowser look like the near future.  Both should get a decent amount of at bats in the majors.   36 year old Abreu is in decline.  He potential adds some offense at DH in 2023.   But when a player is in decline a one year contract with a option is about as far as the O's should go with they go at all.

This is just too easy.   We know that errors are not the best way to judge a defender.   Also, how do we know that Mountcastle saves his infielders more errors than Abreu does?

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I like the Nelson Cruz comp. I think it would depend somewhat on the return for Mountcastle. If we get nothing back it I'd probably lean toward keeping him and spending the money elsewhere, but if we could turn him into a rental for a #2 SP along with Abeu, that would be pretty sweet. 

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28 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Equating Mountcastle to Abreu defensively is a joke IMO.   Abreu had an .989  fielding percentage with 11 errors.  That is last (18th) of all the qualifying  1B in the majors.   Mountcastle has 5 errors and a .995 fielding percentage.  He ranked 8th among qualifying 1B.

And the errors are just a indicator of a 1B overall defensive ability.  A good 1B saving the rest of the infielders errors with his fielding ability.  A bad 1B just add to the whole infields errrors.

Bottom line.  Mountcastle is a 1B.  Abreu is a DH.  Abreu is competing with Santander and Adley for  DH at bats.   Not Mountcastle.

So looking at how much the O's want  Stowers and Cowser to play the outfield in 2023 is important.  Because they are the two players pushing Santander to DH.

To me Stowers and Cowser look like the near future.  Both should get a decent amount of at bats in the majors.   36 year old Abreu is in decline.  He potentially adds some offense at DH in 2023.   But when a player is in decline a one year contract with an option is about as far as the O's should go with they go at all.

RM had an OAA of +3.

Abreu was +1.

Its not a huge difference.  RM can play there more but Abreu isn’t some butcher.

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16 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I think you are seeing value in Abreu's defense that is not there.  So we disagree which is not a big surprise.

You must watch a lot of White Sox games.   Are you basing your opinion on anything other than the 11 errors versus the 5 errors?

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23 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I think you are seeing value in Abreu's defense that is not there.  So we disagree which is not a big surprise.

Lol.  Yea, you choose to see what you want and I’m looking at facts and good ways to measure players.  I’m good not being on your side of hope and dreams.

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18 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

You must watch a lot of White Sox games.   Are you basing your opinion on anything other than the 11 errors versus the 5 errors?

I watched the O's/WS games.  He was terrible defensively.  It goes right along with the 11 errors.  Add in that he will be 36.

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12 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I watched the O's/WS games.  He was terrible defensively.  It goes right along with the 11 errors.  Add in that he will be 36.

He's had 11 errors before in his career and most years had less than 10 and had only 5 in 2021 so I'm not sure that the 11 errors are a sign of his age.   That's impossible to say.    Overall, the statistics are very close.   As I said, in one department, Abreu is clearly better and that is starting DP's.   He started 12 and Mountcastle only started 3.    He may have looked terrible in the games against the Orioles but maybe that's not the complete picture.

I can remember a few years ago when Kevin Kermaier actually looked like a terrible fielder for about a 10 game period.

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7 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

He's had 11 errors before in his career and most years had less than 10 and had only 5 in 2021 so I'm not sure that the 11 errors are a sign of his age.   That's impossible to say.    Overall, the statistics are very close.   As I said, in one department, Abreu is clearly better and that is starting DP's.   He started 12 and Mountcastle only started 3.    He may have looked terrible in the games against the Orioles but maybe that's not the complete picture.

I can remember a few years ago when Kevin Kermaier actually looked like a terrible fielder for about a 10 game period.

Believe what you want.  I have 3 indicators that I don't want him playing 1B for the O's.  Errors, Seeing him play and age.  I will go with that.  To me he is a DH that is in decline.

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3 hours ago, Just Regular said:

 

At a guess, Trey Mancini might provide stronger $$$/WAR than Abreu in 2023 for price-sensitive Clubs...

I’m not sure maximizing the $$$/WAR of one player is the objective here.   Getting the biggest WAR increase we can while staying within whatever budget parameters we have is the objective.  

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