Is Jose Abreu a worthy target?

[forphase1]

8 minutes ago, Pat Kelly said:

Mike Elias putting together his “wow” offers.  

I'm glad we didn't wow Abreu if it was going to take 3/60 or more to wow him. 

[sportsfan8703]

Michael Brantley should be our top bat target. 

[tntoriole]

Just my own contrarian nature, but I predict Abreu will outperform his 3/60 from the Astros.  And by a lot.   Will revisit in 2025 lol 

[forphase1]

51 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Just my own contrarian nature, but I predict Abreu will outperform his 3/60 from the Astros.  And by a lot.   Will revisit in 2025 lol 

It's possible, but I wouldn't bet the house on it.  

[Sports Guy]

I could have been talked into 3/65 or so.

 

I had originally said 2/50 or so.  Didn't love going 3 years but I probably would have ultimately done it.  Just depends on what else is going on.

[forphase1]

53 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I could have been talked into 3/65 or so.

 

I had originally said 2/50 or so.  Didn't love going 3 years but I probably would have ultimately done it.  Just depends on what else is going on.

Realistically, how much more would we have needed to go to land him?  The Astros are clearly ahead of us in the winning now and World Series ready standpoint, and they have no state income tax.  I don't know if 3/65 would offset those 2 factors or not.

Edited November 30, 2022 by forphase1
Spelling

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

Realistically, how much more would we have needed to go to land him?  The Astros are clearly ahead of us in the winning now and Workd Series ready standpoint, and they have no state income tax.  I don't know if 3/65 would offset those 2 factors or not.

Maybe not.  We also don’t have the advantage of OPACY anymore either.

I probably  would have been ok at 3/70.

Its always hard to say because we don’t know what else is going on but I think, in a vacuum, 3/70 for him would have been fine for a team with nothing on the payroll. He could never play for you and that contract wouldn’t hurt you.

 

[RZNJ]

Abreu has still got a lot left in the tank, IMO, but between the new dimensions at OPACY and the fact that we already have a 1B in Mountcastle, he wasn't a great fit.  Either Abreu was going to be getting a lot of DH bats or Mountcastle would be dealt.    

[forphase1]

44 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Maybe not.  We also don’t have the advantage of OPACY anymore either.

I probably  would have been ok at 3/70.

Its always hard to say because we don’t know what else is going on but I think, in a vacuum, 3/70 for him would have been fine for a team with nothing on the payroll. He could never play for you and that contract wouldn’t hurt you.

 

You aren't wrong about the payroll, but even with the room I don't want to see us stupidly overpaying for players just because we can afford to do so.   I was ok with Abreu at 18 per or so.  But 20 per is too much, and your 23.3M a year is just way too much in my opinion for him.  

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, forphase1 said:

You aren't wrong about the payroll, but even with the room I don't want to see us stupidly overpaying for players just because we can afford to do so.   I was ok with Abreu at 18 per or so.  But 20 per is too much, and your 23.3M a year is just way too much in my opinion for him.  

It’s 5M. That’s nothing. It doesn’t stop you from doing anything.

 

[forphase1]

37 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Abreu has still got a lot left in the tank, IMO, but between the new dimensions at OPACY and the fact that we already have a 1B in Mountcastle, he wasn't a great fit.  Either Abreu was going to be getting a lot of DH bats or Mountcastle would be dealt.    

In my opinion, Mountcastle played himself out of the right for us to be not making moves due to him being on the roster. If we can sign a quality 1st baseman for a reasonable price, do it and figure out what to do with Mountcastle later.  

[forphase1]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s 5M. That’s nothing. It doesn’t stop you from doing anything.

 

I didn't say anything about it stopping us from doing anything.  Just saying that's way more than he's worth, and therefore even if we can afford it, and it doesn't hurt us, I'm still not ok with signing him for that amount.  Just because we have the room and can afford it, that doesn't justify vastly overpaying for a 1st basemen on the wrong side of 34.  

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

I didn't say anything about it stopping us from doing anything.  Just saying that's way more than he's worth, and therefore even if we can afford it, and it doesn't hurt us, I'm still not ok with signing him for that amount.  Just because we have the room and can afford it, that doesn't justify vastly overpaying for a 1st basemen on the wrong side of 34.  

 

People are lamenting his power drop in 2022 yet he was worth 3.9 fWAR, which translates to 30M.

He was worth 21.5M last year and 23M the year before.

He is showing no signs of slowing down.

3/70 is an acceptable contract. It’s not a steal and even if you want argue it’s a slight overpay, it’s not drastically so and it’s not a contract that will hurt you.

 

[tabletop]

48 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Abreu has still got a lot left in the tank, IMO, but between the new dimensions at OPACY and the fact that we already have a 1B in Mountcastle, he wasn't a great fit.  Either Abreu was going to be getting a lot of DH bats or Mountcastle would be dealt.    

Abreu hit .304 last year. Mountcastle’s OBP was .305.

[tntoriole]

3 hours ago, forphase1 said:

It's possible, but I wouldn't bet the house on it.  

Analytic types believe every aspect of sports performance is explained only by simple data.   Creativity, craft, drive to improve, practice hours .. none are captured by data.  Abreu is a craftsman about hitting imho.   We shall see.