Should/Will the O’s Exercise the Jordan Lyles Option?

[Frobby]

The O’s have an $11 mm option on Jordan Lyles for 2023.  If they don’t exercise it, they owe Lyles a $1 mm buyout.  So, the net cost of the option is $10 mm above what it would cost to buy him out.   Should they exercise the option?  Regardless of whether they should, will they?

Putting the merits of Lyles to one side for a moment, there are two extraneous factors to consider:

1.  The O’s need to make this decision within five days of the end of the World Series, before they know if they can successfully sign or trade for any pitchers who are better than Lyles.   There certainly are better pitchers available, but we won’t know the cost in dollars or trade chips for a while.  
2.  Speaking of trades, there’s nothing to stop the O’s from trading Lyles after exercising the option if they are able to acquire some better pitchers.  We might have to eat a couple million dollars to get anything of value back in the trade.

As to the merits of Lyles, last year he threw 179 innings at an ERA+ of 91.   The innings total was second-highest of his career, and the ERA+ was better than his career figure of 83.   It’s probably unrealistic to hope for better in 2023, but he definitely served a useful  role as innings eater and mentor for the younger pitchers.  He could serve that role again next year, for the O’s or another team we trade him to.

So what do you think?  Should and will the O’s exercise the option?  The poll closes Nov. 5, which should be shortly before the O’s have to make their decision.
 

Edited October 27, 2022 by Frobby

[Can_of_corn]

They shouldn't.

The money could be better spent as a partial payment to a player who is likely to exceed his production.

I think they will bring him back.

I don't think that bringing him back with the idea to then trade him is worth the risk.

[Sports Guy]

I’m very bewildered by anyone who thinks they should. 
 

The only argument I can think of that is even remotely reasonable is that you don’t think they will find anyone better, whether it’s trade or FA signing.

But if you believe that, it means you don’t think Elias is very good at his job.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m very bewildered by anyone who thinks they should. 
 

The only argument I can think of that is even remotely reasonable is that you don’t think they will find anyone better, whether it’s trade or FA signing.

But if you believe that, it means you don’t think Elias is very good at his job.

Or they are trying to keep the Orioles' payroll low.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Or they are trying to keep the Orioles' payroll low.

Then why pick up the option if that’s the goal?  You can trade for pre or early arb pitchers that cost nothing.

Edited October 27, 2022 by Sports Guy

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Then why pick up the option if that’s the goal?  You can trade for pre or early arb pitchers that cost nothing.

They don't want to spend prospect capital either.

[RZNJ]

Can they find a better starting pitcher on a one-year contract for less than 10M?     I really don't know but I'm guessing that it's not that easy.   Lyles got better in the 2nd half.   

8-4 

93.1 IP

99 hits

24 walks

74 strikeouts

 

Lyles just turned 32.  Even though he's been around forever he's still relatively young.   Early in his career Lyles used a sinker quite a bit, close to 30% of the time while with Colorado.   Once he got out of Colorado, he started decreasing the sinker/two seamer usage from 12% in 2018, 1.9% in 2019, 4.3% in 2020, 8.8% in 2021, and then up to 16.5% last year with the Orioles.

His last 3 months were solid, especially if you consider the two starts in early September when he was sick and tried to come back quickly.   I'm guessing they think he's going to be as good or better in 2023 than he was in 2022.   A one year contract?   There's not a lot of risk there.

[Can_of_corn]

Told you.

He didn't want to increase spending or trade prospects.

 

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Told you.

He didn't want to increase spending or trade prospects.

 

If that is directed at me, I didn't say either thing.   

[Can_of_corn]

17 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

If that is directed at me, I didn't say either thing.   

You specified spending less than 10M and didn't discuss trading for an option.

If that was directed at you.

[RZNJ]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You specified spending less than 10M and didn't discuss trading for an option.

If that was directed at you.

I've also advocated signing Verlander if it was possible so that certainly would include spending.    I am okay with trading prospects in the right deal but it's not my first choice.   I'd rather sign Verlander for 2-3 years than trade 4 top prospects for an Alcantara (although I wouldn't exclude that totally).

I just think Lyles as some value in his reliability and durability and I think he won't be a disaster at 1/11.

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I've also advocated signing Verlander if it was possible so that certainly would include spending.    I am okay with trading prospects in the right deal but it's not my first choice.   I'd rather sign Verlander for 2-3 years than trade 4 top prospects for an Alcantara (although I wouldn't exclude that totally).

I just think Lyles as some value in his reliability and durability and I think he won't be a disaster at 1/11.

I don't think the bar for if the Orioles should do something is "won't be a disaster".

[Sports Guy]

45 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Can they find a better starting pitcher on a one-year contract for less than 10M?     I really don't know but I'm guessing that it's not that easy.   Lyles got better in the 2nd half.   

8-4 

93.1 IP

99 hits

24 walks

74 strikeouts

 

Lyles just turned 32.  Even though he's been around forever he's still relatively young.   Early in his career Lyles used a sinker quite a bit, close to 30% of the time while with Colorado.   Once he got out of Colorado, he started decreasing the sinker/two seamer usage from 12% in 2018, 1.9% in 2019, 4.3% in 2020, 8.8% in 2021, and then up to 16.5% last year with the Orioles.

His last 3 months were solid, especially if you consider the two starts in early September when he was sick and tried to come back quickly.   I'm guessing they think he's going to be as good or better in 2023 than he was in 2022.   A one year contract?   There's not a lot of risk there.

Lots of pitchers will make less than 10M and be average or better.  It’s not hard to find.

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Lots of pitchers will make less than 10M and be average or better.  It’s not hard to find.

Ok.  Name some guys who are better than Lyles and will sign a one year contract for less than 10M.

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think the bar for if the Orioles should do something is "won't be a disaster".

That's nice.   I explained in my first post why I think they will do it and why I don't have a problem with it.