O's looking for RH 1B

[Why Not?]

Baldelli now should be tossed into the mix as he's been confirmed as a potential target. I saw an Olerud comparison as to what he could be like at 1B - An excellent glove with 20-25 HR power. However I don't think he'll have the OBP that Olerud had nor the patience. Still he'll hit for more power and have more speed. I think Derrek Lee would be a better comp...

Olerud and Lee are just crazy optimistic comps.

First of all, Baldelli has never played 1B, so I don't know why we should assume he would excel there. Secondly and most importantly the guy simply can't stay on the field. We're talking about a guy who's managed a career 102 OPS+ without any particularly impressive underlying talents. Pretty good guy to replace Jay Payton, but a dismal starting first-basemen.

[bigbird]

Olerud and Lee are just crazy optimistic comps.

First of all, Baldelli has never played 1B, so I don't know why we should assume he would excel there. Secondly and most importantly the guy simply can't stay on the field. We're talking about a guy who's managed a career 102 OPS+ without any particularly impressive underlying talents. Pretty good guy to replace Jay Payton, but a dismal starting first-basemen.

He doesn't need to play 1B. He can DH and Huff can play 1B. Baldelli is the type of low cost high reward risk this organization should be taking.

[Scrat1]

He doesn't need to play 1B. He can DH and Huff can play 1B. Baldelli is the type of low cost high reward risk this organization should be taking.

Exactly. Especially since we have Salazar as well. If Baldelli ends up a bust, Salazar can easily step up. I'm very pleased to hear we're considering Baldelli.

[trueoriolesfan]

Exactly. Especially since we have Salazar as well. If Baldelli ends up a bust, Salazar can easily step up. I'm very pleased to hear we're considering Baldelli.

Given Baldelli 450+ AB's projection wise what can he do?

[El Gordo]

He doesn't need to play 1B. He can DH and Huff can play 1B. Baldelli is the type of low cost high reward risk this organization should be taking.

Yes, but this thread is about the O's looking for a RH 1B, not a RH DH. The question is why are they looking for a RH 1B? I doubt you know that.

[Why Not?]

He doesn't need to play 1B. He can DH and Huff can play 1B. Baldelli is the type of low cost high reward risk this organization should be taking.

If he's cheap, fine. I'm just not sure how "high-reward" he is. I would be surprised if he can be a full-time player and I'm not sure he will ever provide enough offense to hold down a corner or DH.

My response was to the assumption he would be our first baseman. I'm fine with Huff at 1B or even 3B since Mora's defense has declined so much.

[ugen64]

If he's cheap, fine. I'm just not sure how "high-reward" he is. I would be surprised if he can be a full-time player and I'm not sure he will ever provide enough offense to hold down a corner or DH.

My response was to the assumption he would be our first baseman. I'm fine with Huff at 1B or even 3B since Mora's defense has declined so much.

Mora's defense is still much better than Huff's. Last season Mora had a UZR/150 of -3.3; if it declines at the same rate into next season (which is unlikely), it would be down to -9 or so. Meanwhile, if you combine 3B fielding data from Huff's last 3 years, his UZR/150 was about -8.4. In other words, I doubt Huff would actually be a better fielder than Mora at 3B.

Anyway, I think Baldelli will be fine as a converted 1B. Why? Because all other things being equal, 1B is the easiest position on the field. There are plenty of examples of players converting to 1B with negligible previous time at that position. For instance, Miguel Cabrera played over 140 games at 1B last season, without a single previous inning at that position (in the majors or minors). Also, you usually convert players to 1B because their glove sucks at other positions (usually corner outfielders with no range, infielders with no range or arm, and bad defensive catchers).

Baldelli doesn't fit that description - by all accounts he is an excellent outfielder, health issues notwithstanding. He'd be similar to Lance Berkman, a former CF himself. Just for comparison - Berkman's career UZR/150 in the outfield is -5.3. Baldelli's career UZR/150 in the outfield is -2.0, with significantly more innings in CF than Berkman (so Baldelli's even being undervalued in this comparison). Last season Berkman tied for 1st in UZR/150 at 1B among all players with over 1000 IP.

I'm supporting this signing with the caveat that Baldelli can resolve his health issues and perform to his full capability, either as a 1B or a DH. If he can't, he might as well sign for someone like the Red Sox, where he won't be expected to play full-time.

[Why Not?]

Mora's defense is still much better than Huff's. Last season Mora had a UZR/150 of -3.3; if it declines at the same rate into next season (which is unlikely), it would be down to -9 or so. Meanwhile, if you combine 3B fielding data from Huff's last 3 years, his UZR/150 was about -8.4. In other words, I doubt Huff would actually be a better fielder than Mora at 3B.

Anyway, I think Baldelli will be fine as a converted 1B. Why? Because all other things being equal, 1B is the easiest position on the field. There are plenty of examples of players converting to 1B with negligible previous time at that position. For instance, Miguel Cabrera played over 140 games at 1B last season, without a single previous inning at that position (in the majors or minors). Also, you usually convert players to 1B because their glove sucks at other positions (usually corner outfielders with no range, infielders with no range or arm, and bad defensive catchers).

Baldelli doesn't fit that description - by all accounts he is an excellent outfielder, health issues notwithstanding. He'd be similar to Lance Berkman, a former CF himself. Just for comparison - Berkman's career UZR/150 in the outfield is -5.3. Baldelli's career UZR/150 in the outfield is -2.0, with significantly more innings in CF than Berkman (so Baldelli's even being undervalued in this comparison). Last season Berkman tied for 1st in UZR/150 at 1B among all players with over 1000 IP.

I'm supporting this signing with the caveat that Baldelli can resolve his health issues and perform to his full capability, either as a 1B or a DH. If he can't, he might as well sign for someone like the Red Sox, where he won't be expected to play full-time.

Sure, he'd be moving the right direction on the spectrum. But I don't think we should carve out that spot for the guy because it's unlikely he would ever hit enough. If we wound up with Baldelli, I'd rather put him in LF and shift Scott to 1B.

Good work on the Huff numbers. Either way, we're looking at sub-par glovework at 3B

Of course, it all seems to be a moot point now.

[Migrant Redbird]

yeah, his brother is also on the team: Chris Duncan.

You're welcome to Shelly Duncan, and we'll throw in Chris and Dave too, if you want them.

For some strange reason, the Cards didn't non-tender Chris, probably a big mistake. Guesses are that he'll win somewhere between $1M to $2M in arbitration, when he's really not deserving of more than ML minimum. Who says that nepotism isn't alive and well in St. Louis?

Don't get me wrong; I think that Chris will hit a ton, but he's almost a Dr. Strangeglove in left; he needs to find a home with an AL team that needs to upgrade their DH. He also plays 1st -- in fact that was his minor league position, but the Cards have this fellow named Albert who seems to own 1st base -- so Chris has played LF virtually all the time since he came up in 2006. His 1st base defense isn't highly regarded either, but I did see him make a couple nifty plays there last season, so perhaps there's hope?

Couldn't interest you in this right handed 1st baseman, could we? According to Baseball Cube's new format, which includes scouting reports, he's got more power and speed than Markakis, but will make contact less frequently and has less patience at the plate.

Below are the 2009 ZIPS projections for the Cardinals outfielders. At this point, it appears the Cards intend to open the season with A- prospect Colby Rasmus in center field if he has a good spring, which means that someone else will have to go to make room.

Baseball Cube Scouting Report

Name        Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CSLudwick      30  .274  .347  .522 137 456  70 125 31  2 26  85  46 123  3  3Ankiel*      29  .260  .318  .496 128 462  68 120 21  2 28  85  37 106  3  2Duncan*      28  .262  .348  .453 113 344  48  90 16  1 16  55  45  94  2  1Schumaker*   29  .292  .344  .388 131 428  58 125 19  2  6  48  33  49  6  2Barton       27  .262  .343  .382 104 325  39  85 14  2  7  38  29  75 13  6Rasmus*      22  .237  .314  .401 114 439  60 104 21  0 17  61  45  85 15  3Mather       26  .243  .308  .425 125 428  53 104 22  1 18  63  34  79  7  1

If Rasmus starts in center, Ludwick and Ankiel are almost guaranteed to be the other starting outfielders. Way too many left handed hitters; Chris Duncan needs to go! Schumaker is a leadoff hitter par excellence against right handed pitching, but had a terrible season against southpaws; he should probably be the utility outfielder. Barton was a rule 5 who did well last season, but now needs to go back to AAA and get some more experience. That would leave Joe "Joey Bombs" Mather as the other utility outfielder, or expendable if Papa Duncan can't let baby Chris leave home.

Rumor now is that the Cards might even try Mather at 2nd base. Sounds like a stupid idea to me! He was a shortstop when drafted, but hasn't played there since 2001 in rookie league and never has played 2nd. He's 6 foot 5 inches; does anyone recall a 2nd baseman that tall? I can't imagine him making the double play pivot smoothly, no matter how good an athlete he is reputed to be.

[ugen64]

Sure, he'd be moving the right direction on the spectrum. But I don't think we should carve out that spot for the guy because it's unlikely he would ever hit enough. If we wound up with Baldelli, I'd rather put him in LF and shift Scott to 1B.

Good work on the Huff numbers. Either way, we're looking at sub-par glovework at 3B

Of course, it all seems to be a moot point now.

No, I agree. Baldelli isn't a good long-term option at 1B due to his bat. But neither was Kevin Millar - the fact is, you work with what you have, and I think Baldelli is a good signing for Baltimore due to his bat, wherever his glove fits (LF? 1B? DH?).

[JTrea81]

No need to worry as it appears he's going to be going to the Sux.

Looks like Big Sexy is on deck!

[Maples]

I missed it if anyone else mentioned him; what about Nick Swisher? 1 bad year, probably very available, probably available cheaply, switch-hitter with power, can play 1B and all OF positions, relatively young, not crazy expensive, plays hard, good pedigree, has enjoyed recent success, an "Oriole" type of player. Talk about buy-low. Beats the usual options named Retread, Injury questionmark, and Unproven castoff.

[ugen64]

I missed it if anyone else mentioned him; what about Nick Swisher? 1 bad year, probably very available, probably available cheaply, switch-hitter with power, can play 1B and all OF positions, relatively young, not crazy expensive, plays hard, good pedigree, has enjoyed recent success, an "Oriole" type of player. Talk about buy-low. Beats the usual options named Retread, Injury questionmark, and Unproven castoff.

He's been mentioned before, most people don't like his bat. Personally I think he's one of the better affordable non-free agent options.

[FutureGM]

Baldelli has a few health concerns which may lead to his inevitable switch to first base. If he can even play halfway decent first base, he'd be a much younger and higher upside replacement to Millar.

Personally I'd prefer to take a look at Wiggington though. He seems to fit our bill a little more. Someone who can hit 20-25 hr's and hit about 270.

[DrungoHazewood]

Given Baldelli 450+ AB's projection wise what can he do?

Over how many years are you spreading those 450+ ABs?