Did Adley Rutschman just have the greatest rookie season in Orioles' history?

[Frobby]

It looks like Adley Rutschman is likely to lose out to Julio Rodriguez for Rookie of the Year, but did he just have the greatest rookie season in (modern) Orioles history?   rWAR and fWAR both say yes, but I certainly think you could argue otherwise.

As background, the Orioles have had six Rookies of the Year, and all told, 30 Orioles players have received ROY votes going into 2022.  The method of voting changed in 1980.  Prior to then, the voters simply chose one player they felt deserved the award; since then, voters have selected a top 3, with a weighted vote depending on the order chosen by each voter.  As a result of that change, more players have gotten votes in the post-1979 era than under the previous system.   With that said, here are the top 10 Orioles rookies as ranked by rWAR:

1.  Adley Rutschman 2022, 5.2 rWAR, 5.3 fWAR.  Despite playing only 3/4 of the season, Adley racked up the highest rWAR and fWAR in Orioles history.  In 470 PA, he posted a 128 OPS+, stroking 13 homers and knocking in 42 runs.  He played stellar defense and the team as a whole played markedly better after he joined the Orioles in late May.

2.  Cal Ripken Jr. 1982, 4.7 rWAR, 4.6 fWAR.  After a brief debut in 1981, Cal played all but one game in 1982, moving from 3B to SS early in the season.  He finished the year with 655 PA at a 115 OPS+, 28 homers and 93 RBI, as the O's chased the AL East title down to the final day, losing out to the Brewers.  Cal was rewarded by winning the Rookie of the Year.

3.  John Means 2019, 4.4 rWAR, 3.2 fWAR.   Means ranks higher by rWAR than fWAR, but very solid either way.  For a team that went 54-108, Means went 12-11 with a 3.60 ERA, good for a 131 ERA+ in 155 innings..  He finished 2nd in the ROY voting.

4.  Mike Boddicker 1983. 4.1 rWAR, 3.8 fWAR.   For the World Champion Orioles, Boddicker went 16-8 with a 2.77 ERA, translating to 143 ERA+ in 179 innings.  He finished 3rd in the ROY voting.

5.  Al Bumbry 1973, 4.0 rWAR, 3.9 fWAR.  Joining a team that had struggled offensively the previous year, Bumbry stroked a 154 OPS+ in only 395 PA, hitting 7 homers with 34 RBI and stealing 23 bases.   He won the ROY despite his limited at bats, and helped the O's reclaim the AL East title before falling to Oakland in the playoffs.

6.  Ron Hansen 1960, 3.9 rWAR, 4.5 fWAR.   By fWAR, Hansen would rank 3rd on the list behind Adley and Cal.   In 606 PA, he posted a 111 OPS+ with 22 HR and 86 RBI, very strong numbers for a SS in that era.  He was the first Oriole to win the Rookie of the Year.

7.  Rich Coggins 1973, 3.8 rWAR, 3.5 fWAR.  Coggins was overshadowed by Bumbry, but had a great rookie year in his own right, posting a 134 OPS+ in 426 PA with 7 HR and 41 RBI, earning 6th place in the ROY voting.

8.  Rodrigo Lopez 2002, 3.7 rWAR, 2.9 fWAR.   Picked up from the Mexican League, Lopz began the year in the bullpen but very quickly moved into the rotation, finishing the year with a 15-9 record at a 3.57 ERA (120 ERA+) in 196.2 innings.  That earned him 2nd place in the ROY voting.

9.  Curt Blefary 1965, 3.6 rWAR, 4.2 fWAR.  The 21-year old Blefary posted a 139 OPS+ in 561 PA, hitting 22 homers and knocking in 70, to become the Orioles' second Rookie of the Year.

10.  Wally Bunker 1964, 3.3 rWAR, 2.6 fWAR.  Only 19, Bunker went 19-5 with a 2.69 ERA (134 ERA+) in 214 IP, finishing 2nd for ROY.

I won't list out the full stats for the rest of the players who received ROY votes, but here they are in rWAR order (fWAR also listed 2nd): Gregg Olson 1989 (3.3, 2.0)(won ROY), Ben McDonald 1990 (3.3, 1.8), Eddie Murray 1977 (3.2, 3.0)(won the ROY), Jim Gentile 1960 (3.1, 3.6), Brian Matusz 2010 (2.8, 2.8), Chuck Estrada 1960 (2.8, 1.9), Wei-Yin Chen 2012 (2.5, 2.2), Nick Markakis 2006 (2.5, 2.0), Leo Gomez 1991 (2.4, 2.1), Trey Mancini (2.4, 1.5), Jorge Julio 2002 (1.8, 1.2), Craig Worthington 1989 (1.7, 1.5), Daniel Cabrera 2004 (1.3, 1.3), Rocky Coppinger 1996 (1.3, 0.7), Tito Francona 1956 (1.2, 0.9), Jeffrey Hammonds 1994 (1.1, 0.9), Davey Johnson (1.0, 1.1), Sidney Ponson 1998 (0.9, 1.2), Ryan Mountcastle 2021 (0.9, 0.6), Ryan Mountcastle 2020 (0.8, 0.7), and Mike Young (0.5, 2.2).  

I should point out that I've only listed players who received votes in the ROY voting.  I'm sure there are some players who got no votes, who had better rookie seasons than some of the players on the 11-30 list.   The most obvious example I could think of was Don Baylor, who was worth 2.2 rWAR, 2.6 fWAR in 1972, but got no ROY votes because Carlton Fisk was a unanimous selection and the voters were only voting for one guy in that time period.  I'm confident there are some others, and if anyone wants to suggest a stellar rookie not listed above, please post it.

I also wanted to mention what happened in 1960.   Not only did Ron Hansen win it, but Chuck Estrada finished 2nd and Jim Gentile finished 3rd.   They were the only three AL players to receive ROY votes.  Together, the three were worth 9.8 rWAR, 10.0 fWAR.   Quite a rookie class, as the O's surged from 74 wins in 1959 to 89 in 1960.   

So, back to the question in the thread title.   Is Adley's 2022 the best rookie season any Oriole ever had?   Personally, I would still have to give the nod to Cal's 1982 season.  Although his OPS+, rWAR and fWAR were not as high as Adley's, for me the fact that he had more than double the amount of homers and RBI counts for a lot.   So, i'd be putting him ahead of Adley.  I'd be moving John Means down the list, too.   

Edited November 1, 2022 by Frobby

[jabba72]

I'll give the nod to AR simply because he does have a higher WAR that Cal, and this team would have been nowhere close to .500 without him...much less 83-79.

Cal is my favorite player of all time so I dont make that decision lightly.

[ledzepp8]

I would probably say Cal but he's also my favorite player of all time. Gregg Olson won ROY too...

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, ledzepp8 said:

I would probably say Cal but he's also my favorite player of all time. Gregg Olson won ROY too...

Yes, I should have mentioned that on my string of 11-30.  He had the same rWAR as Bunker (3.3) but I listed Bunker at 10 because he had the better fWAR.  I’ll edit the Olson entry now.  

[btdart20]

Fun post!  Well done.

It's hard for me to look past that 28 HR for Cal's ROY year even if that OPS+ says otherwise.  Adley's 35 doubles drove that as much as his 13.8% BB% (vs. 7% for Cal in '82).  A big factor in favor Adley though is that he's the sun around which the rest of the hitters revolved.  Cal was in Eddie's orbit at that point in their careers.  Plus, the Lowenstein/Roenicke duo and the ghost of Ken Singleton OBP was still great compared to today's game.  In other words, I'm disregarding the R/RBI differences.

Every time I see Gregg Olson's name I smile...  Good times!  SV is an eye-candy stat that people like.

 

[Just Regular]

21 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

It's hard for me to look past that 28 HR for Cal's ROY year even if that OPS+ says otherwise. 

Cal, counting stats and rate stats are three ingredients that can fuel some hot arguments among fans.

If one really wanted to make trouble at a future Fanfest where minority owner Cal is on a panel with Sig, ask a question like whether The Streak was a good idea.

[Frobby]

It’s kind of amazing to think that if Adley had played the full season, he might have beaten Cal’s WAR total by 50%.   There just aren’t many excellent 2-way catchers out there.   

[Frobby]

And speaking of catchers, Matt Wieters’ 1.4 rWAR/1.1 fWAR rookie year was better than several of the listed players who got ROY votes.  

[LA2]

Two forgotten Orioles outfielders with short careers, but whose rookie seasons I really enjoyed were:

CHITO MARTINEZ--Only 228 PAs in 1991, but he hit 13 homers and slashed .269 / .303 / .514 for an .817 OPS (126 OPS+)

SAM BOWENS--553 PAs in 1964 (year of Brooks' MVP and Bunker's RoY) with 22 homers, 71 RBIs and .263 / .323 / .453 for a .776 OPS (114 OPS+). He was also a very good right fielder with a dangerous arm (8 assists).

As you can see, Bowens' HR and RBI stats were practically identical to Blefary's RoY season the following year and so I grew up expecting an Oriole rookie to hit 22 HRs and knock in 70 runs almost every season, esp. since Hansen, who was also a very sure-handed fielder, had set the precedent with 22 / 86 in 1960.

Bowens' career fade was one of the most drastic and puzzling I've ever witnessed. I always rooted hard for him, devotedly replicating his tense closed batting stance while listening over the Zenith radio in my bedroom. My parents, who had come from Korea before baseball advented there, must have thought I was crazy. Norm Siebern was the other Oriole of that period I felt great empathy for, his best seasons likewise behind him.

Edited November 2, 2022 by LA2

[survivedc]

Some fun guys to remember from this list, Daniel Cabrera maybe most surprisingly. Being ignorant to how much Cal improved the defense I’d have to say Adley gets the nod.

As an aside, watching this game it occurs to me that Adley may very well be better in both phases than either JT or Maldonado as soon as next year.

[WillyM]

I know Brooks Robinson's career got off to a sputtering start and he was sent back to the minors several times.  I'm not sure which year was considered to be Brooks' rookie season, and I doubt that he received any consideration at all for the Rookie of the Year award.

I don't know how to calculate WAR, fWAR, or rWAR.  Out of curiosity, can someone tell me what his rookie season numbers would have been in those three categories?

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, WillyM said:

I know Brooks Robinson's career got off to a sputtering start and he was sent back to the minors several times.  I'm not sure which year was considered to be Brooks' rookie season, and I doubt that he received any consideration at all for the Rookie of the Year award.

I don't know how to calculate WAR, fWAR, or rWAR.  Out of curiosity, can someone tell me what his rookie season numbers would have been in those three categories?

You are right about Brooks’ career having a sputtering start.  He debuted briefly at age 18 in 1955, got another cup of coffee in 1956 and exceeded rookie limits at age 20 in 1957. That year, he played in 50 games, bringing his career total to 71 games.   He was worth 0.4 rWAR, 0.4 fWAR that year.   

Brooks spent all of 1958 in the majors, but was demoted back to the minors for 42 games in the middle of 1959.   So he really wasn’t fully established as a major leaguer until 1960.  Despite being up and down for 5 years, he was still only 23 when he finally found his footing.  
 

[Roll Tide]

I’m guessing Mussina pitched too many innngs in 91 or would’ve easily won it in 1992.

[waroriole]

Great thread. I hope we continue to have discussions as to who is better between Cal and Adley. 

[foxfield]

I hope we win the World Series in Adley's second year over Philly.