Law: Uehara not "best fit" for O's

[Frobby]

Anybody who sees this article as "trashing the O's" is paranoid. Everything Law says about the HR tendencies of Uehara and OPACY is fair comment. My only nitpick is that his comment that Uehera will have to face strong lineups so many times would be true of any pitcher we signed.

At least most of the HRs he allows should be solos. In DCab's case, he didn't allow HRs that often over the course of his career (88 HR in 5 years), but 49% of them came with runners on base and 23% of them were either 3-run jacks or grand slams. By contrast, Jeremy Guthrie is fairly HR prone (52 in 2+ major league seasons), but only 31% have come with runners on base and only 8% have been three run HRs or grand slams.

[Lucky Jim]

Chen got lucky? I understand that "luck" is a part of your name, but over the course of a season, and even moreso over a couple seasons, luck has very little to do with success as a pitcher. You either have it or you don't. Chris Waters may have got lucky with the Angels. Bruce Chen was just plain old good to warrant a 3.83ERA over 32 starts.

It's okay that you feel this way. I really have no problem with you deviating from years and years of studied analysis (by others) of this issue. Seriously. But I wouldn't be so emphatic. The next thing you know, you'll be calling others ignorant for saying OPACY is HR-friendly.

[wildcard]

Uehara will have about 6 weeks to figure it out. The Yard plays pretty big is cooler weather. Sometimes the ball gets really wacked and its just a fly ball out during April and the first part of May. Then warm weather arrives and the hotter it gets the more the ball fly out of the park. Sept marks the return of the cooler whether and the ball loses its rabbit effect.

So if Uehara can figure out the league in the first 6 weeks, he should have a good year.

[Fan4Life]

Law describes Uehara as another Olson to me. Has to be precise or will get killed.

[Enjoy Terror]

It's okay that you feel this way. I really have no problem with you deviating from years and years of studied analysis (by others) of this issue. Seriously. But I wouldn't be so emphatic. The next thing you know, you'll be calling others ignorant for saying OPACY is HR-friendly.

You are talking down to me; it's not appreciated.

[Lucky Jim]

Law describes Uehara as another Olson to me. Has to be precise or will get killed.

Which is fine. Because, by all accounts, Uehara is precise.

[El Gordo]

Well, you can almost say that about any Oriole on the roster right now couldn't you? I mean, how are we defining "ideal fit?"

I don't have a problem with the signing. In fact, I'm starting to warm up to it a little more after reading some of Drungo's stuff.

I just don't think Keith Law's analysis was overly critical that's all.

We're talking about the ideal fit for a FA signing. What is Law's definition since that is his criteria for criticsizing this signing? My criteria, gven the O's need for short term SP to fillout gaps in the rotation until younger SP's mature would be 180+ innings at sub 5.00 ERA and two years or less for less than $8 mm per. So who would fit these criteria better than Uehara?

[RShack]

I think the title of Law's article is mis-titled.

Uehara fills a big need for the Orioles, for the reasons many posters cited above - strike-throwing guy who should give us 150+ innings.

The problem, as discussed by Law, is that the O's play in a homer-friendly park and have to play some of the best lineups in baseball for 60+ games each year. This will casue Uehara's numbers to look worse than they might have if her signed with a team in a bigger ballpark or weaker division.

So, Law's article should't say that Uehara is not the "best fit" for O's, rather, it should REALLY read: O's not "best-fit" for Uehara.

Yep. They got the headline backwards.

On the other hand, if Uehara has decided that he's coming here to prove something, then maybe he picked the best place for that.

If he does well, there will be no way to explain it away...

[Lucky Jim]

You are talking down to me; it's not appreciated.

I was joking. I'm not talking down to you. You just stated - flatly, declaratively - that luck does not exist over the course of a season.

There are tons of guys out there who specialize in this stuff and who disagree with you. I'd imagine that 1970 and Drungo would disagree with you.

If you want to say that it's not luck, but that it's not a skill that's repeatable or sustainable, that's fine. That's a semantic argument.

But before you start glibly writing off years of FIP and xFIP and other kinds of data, you should think twice. Like I said, you don't have to believe that it's accurate, or that luck plays a significant role. But it's not an idea that can be tossed away as if irrelevant, unstudied, or unsubstantiated.

[NCRaven]

Law pretty much mirrors my thoughts in another thread....that Uehara (soon to be pronounced "Oh the horror") will get lit up like the 4th of July by MiL hitters.

Law describes Uehara as another Olson to me. Has to be precise or will get killed.

Law didn't say either of these things. He just said that Uehara's style isn't a perfect match for Camden Yards. That's the only point he made in his post. 99% of ML pitchers have to have command of their pitches to be successful. Very few can just throw the ball and get by. One of Uehara's best trait's is that he commands all of his pitches and has good movement on most of them. That gives him a far better chance to succeed than any of the less successful Japanese imports - as law clearly pointed out - and Olson, unless Garrett gets it together and starts throwing strikes at the ML level.

[JTrea81]

You beat me to the punch. OPACY also was 4th in 2007. There has been a significant uptick in its HR tendencies since the giant hotel structure was built across the street, which clearly has altered the wind patterns at OPACY.

Yeah, Luke almost hit the warehouse twice and each time the ball hit the warehouse on the bounce off of Eutaw St.

Somebody like Dunn is going to hit the Warehouse eventually, perhaps as soon as this season...

[Lucky Jim]

Yeah, Luke almost hit the warehouse twice and each time the ball hit the warehouse on the bounce off of Eutaw St.

Somebody like Dunn is going to hit the Warehouse eventually, perhaps as soon as this season...

I'm pretty sure that's not the most accurate way to measure whether a ballpark is HR friendly.

[Frobby]

Law describes Uehara as another Olson to me. Has to be precise or will get killed.

Uehara's stuff probably is fairly comparable to Olson's. His command is far superior.

[RShack]

Law describes Uehara as another Olson to me. Has to be precise or will get killed.

No, he describes Uehara as having been the guy who Olson is trying to be.

What we don't know yet is whether Uehara can still be that guy.

One way to find out...

ps: If he shows that he's still that guy, I bet Olson starts learning how to listen in Japanese ;-)

[JTrea81]

I'm pretty sure that's not the most accurate way to measure whether a ballpark is HR friendly.

It's a way to determine how the wind patterns have changed though. Before balls would hardly make it past the fence on to Eutaw St. I know Luke has power, but I don't think those balls travel as far as they did before the hotel went up...

The wind used to pass between OPACY and the Warehouse and act as a wind tunnel blowing the balls down, well now the wind is mostly blocked by the Hilton so balls will travel further when hit in the air...