Elias sounds like he is shooting high

[Camden Yards]

Would the Braves actually trade Acuna?

https://twitter.com/JimRileyLive/status/1590855347140702209?s=20&t=NyPBbqvAG2y0pMID4bG7Vg

[Frobby]

9 hours ago, Camden Yards said:

The most innings Kremer has thrown is 131. Bradish max has been 117IP. Hopefully they take the step up to 150IP. 

Any reason you are excluding their minor league innings?   With those included, Bradish threw 145, Kremer 134 last year.

To me, their innings will be determined by how well they pitch, and whether they stay healthy, not some artificial restriction relating to how many innings they pitched last year.   I can see either throwing 170+ innings, if they pitch well.  
 

[IPlayGM]

9 hours ago, Camden Yards said:

The most innings Kremer has thrown is 131. Bradish max has been 117IP. Hopefully they take the step up to 150IP. 
I am putting Voth, Wells, and Hall in the bullpen.

I am hoping we sign Rodon and Clevinger/Kluber. Or sign Rodon and trade for a second pitcher. 

SP: Rodon, GROD, Clevinger/Kluber, Kremer, and Bradish (We have Wells

BP: Bautista, Tate, Hall, Baker, Perez, Akin, Voth, Wells, Baumann, Krehbel. That is ten guys- great competition!

I’ll believe we will spend that much on a FA pitcher (Rodon) when I see it. Just don’t see it happening. I think it is much more realistic we sign a couple bats and trade for pitching. The scenario where we sign Correa and Benintendi would actually make sense with what it would allow us to make available in trades (pick two of Mateo, Ortiz, Westburg, Hays). 
 

It’s really going to be interesting to see the direction Elias goes.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, IPlayGM said:

I’ll believe we will spend that much on a FA pitcher (Rodon) when I see it. Just don’t see it happening. I think it is much more realistic we sign a couple bats and trade for pitching. The scenario where we sign Correa and Benintendi would actually make sense with what it would allow us to make available in trades (pick two of Mateo, Ortiz, Westburg, Hays). 
 

It’s really going to be interesting to see the direction Elias goes.

I think when you focus very heavily on bats in the draft, as Elias consistently has done, you have to be prepared to spend on FA pitchers.  Not necessarily at the very top echelon, but we’ll see.  

[IPlayGM]

26 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think when you focus very heavily on bats in the draft, as Elias consistently has done, you have to be prepared to spend on FA pitchers.  Not necessarily at the very top echelon, but we’ll see.  

Oh I agree with you, just having a hard time moving past what has happened in recent Os history. I recognize that Elias wasn’t in charge then, but it is still etched in my brain. 

[Camden Yards]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Any reason you are excluding their minor league innings?   With those included, Bradish threw 145, Kremer 134 last year.

To me, their innings will be determined by how well they pitch, and whether they stay healthy, not some artificial restriction relating to how many innings they pitched last year.   I can see either throwing 170+ innings, if they pitch well.  
 

The point I was making was that to pencil them in for 150 innings is nowhere near a sure thing. You hope they get there next year but far from a given. We need a couple of givens and not five “hopes.”

[Camden Yards]

2 hours ago, IPlayGM said:

I’ll believe we will spend that much on a FA pitcher (Rodon) when I see it. Just don’t see it happening. I think it is much more realistic we sign a couple bats and trade for pitching. The scenario where we sign Correa and Benintendi would actually make sense with what it would allow us to make available in trades (pick two of Mateo, Ortiz, Westburg, Hays). 
 

It’s really going to be interesting to see the direction Elias goes.

I like Turner better. If you sign a big time shortstop theoretically what package around Holliday would bring back a bonafide #1 pitcher. What would it take to get the Marlins Ace? He has a great contract that would help our payroll for several years.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

12 hours ago, Camden Yards said:

Would the Braves actually trade Acuna?

https://twitter.com/JimRileyLive/status/1590855347140702209?s=20&t=NyPBbqvAG2y0pMID4bG7Vg

I have a really, really, REALLY hard time believing that the Braves would seriously entertain trading a 25 year old with a .277/.370/.517 career line in 2,300 PAs who has 4 free agent years bought out at a well below market value $17 million, but if they are actually shopping him, I am making everyone in the organization available except for Adley, Gunnar, Grayson, and maybe Holliday. 

[Frobby]

20 minutes ago, Camden Yards said:

The point I was making was that to pencil them in for 150 innings is nowhere near a sure thing. You hope they get there next year but far from a given. We need a couple of givens and not five “hopes.”

I’m just focused on needing someone better.  The innings these two might throw don’t worry me.  

I think O’s fans were so happy to have “competitive” starting pitching last year that they haven’t realized we were still significantly below average.   Here is the differential between our starters’ ERA and the league average since 2015:

2015: +0.39 above league average

2016: +0.30

2017: +1.16

2018: +1.10

2019: +0.81

2020: +0.57

2021: +1.51

2022: +0.34

So hurray, we were the closest to league average that we’ve been since 2016.  We’re still significantly worse than average, and need to be better to be a serious contender.

 

[Camden Yards]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m just focused on needing someone better.  The innings these two might throw don’t worry me.  

I think O’s fans were so happy to have “competitive” starting pitching last year that they haven’t realized we were still significantly below average.   Here is the differential between our starters’ ERA and the league average since 2015:

2015: +0.39 above league average

2016: +0.30

2017: +1.16

2018: +1.10

2019: +0.81

2020: +0.57

2021: +1.51

2022: +0.34

So hurray, we were the closest to league average that we’ve been since 2016.  We’re still significantly worse than average, and need to be better to be a serious contender.

 

I agree!! We cannot be happy with mediocrity. I think we need two good pitchers this off-season. I really don’t care how we get them. 

[Bahama O's Fan]

Side question: Why do we measure a pitcher's workload by pitch count for games but by innings for seasons? All innings are not created equal.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

Side question: Why do we measure a pitcher's workload by pitch count for games but by innings for seasons? All innings are not created equal.

It’s a fair question.  Over the course of a full season, the P/IP ratio for different pitchers varies less than it does for an hour individual pitcher from one game to another.   Also, there’s a toll from the warm up pitches thrown at the start of each inning that isn’t reflected in the total pitches count.  Finally, it’s always been done that way, and we’re lazy.  

Pitches thrown: Burnes, Cole, Alcantra, Mikolas, Wainwright, Cease, Pivetta, Kelly, Ray, Nola.

Innings: Alcantra, Nola, Mikolas, Burnes, Valdez, Cole, Kelly, Bieber, Nola, Perez.

So you’ve got Nola, Valdez, Bieber and Perez being pretty pitch-efficient, Wainwright, Cease and Pivetta not so much.  

 

Edited November 12, 2022 by Frobby

[MarCakes21]

53 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s a fair question.  Over the course of a full season, the P/IP ratio for different pitchers varies less than it does for an hour individual pitcher from one game to another.   Also, there’s a toll from the warm up pitches thrown at the start of each inning that isn’t reflected in the total pitches count.  Finally, it’s always been done that way, and we’re lazy.  

Pitches thrown: Burnes, Cole, Alcantra, Mikolas, Wainwright, Cease, Pivetta, Kelly, Ray, Nola.

Innings: Alcantra, Nola, Mikolas, Burnes, Valdez, Cole, Kelly, Bieber, Nola, Perez.

So you’ve got Nola, Valdez, Bieber and Perez being pretty pitch-efficient, Wainwright, Cease and Pivetta not so much.  

 

I imagine that the orgs actually have a better way to evaluate total fatigue.  And it's probably by pitches.  And also counts bullpens, side sessions, and warmups.  But all just a guess.

[Can_of_corn]

15 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

I imagine that the orgs actually have a better way to evaluate total fatigue.  And it's probably by pitches.  And also counts bullpens, side sessions, and warmups.  But all just a guess.

Pitches is flawed as well.  What was the context in which the pitches were thrown?

I would get frustrated when they would pull Grayson after some arbitrary pitch limit when all of his innings were low stress.

Going 80 pitches over 5 with baserunners and deep counts isn't the same as going 7 dominant innings.

[MarCakes21]

21 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Pitches is flawed as well.  What was the context in which the pitches were thrown?

I would get frustrated when they would pull Grayson after some arbitrary pitch limit when all of his innings were low stress.

Going 80 pitches over 5 with baserunners and deep counts isn't the same as going 7 dominant innings.

Point is I imagine teams track every pitch, high stress, low stress, fastballs, breaking balls, etc, to try to categorize the impact on the pitchers total stress and limits.