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If we added 2 monster talents, could we compete for a WS?

DocJJ

By DocJJ
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DocJJ Major Leaguer

DocJJ

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Posted

Pick any 2 players.  Forget costs/budgets, etc.  Are there 2 that make us a World Series team?

 

DeGrom/Judge- The least realistic by far, but if we added them are we a WS contender?

The rotation could be: DeGrom, Means, Rodriguez, Kremer, and the best of Bradish/Wells/DL Hall

Lineup could be: Mullins, Rutschman, Judge, Santander, Henderson, Moutncastle, Hays, Urias, Mateo (or Westburg, Ortiz, Norby, etc.)

Senga/Degrom

Judge/Senga

Judge/Correa

 

It's a pretty tough exercise.  DeGrom/Judge probably gets you closest but is least realistic and I'm not sure it's enough to put us over the top....

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MarCakes21 Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

MarCakes21

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Yes definitely. Look at what you’d replace and from where. Say you replace Wells/Voth/Watkins (pick two) for deGrom/Verlander/Rodon (pick two). That’s an easy gain of 10 wins. Assume no improvement from anyone else and you’re at mid-90s wins. That puts you in competition for the AL east and a WS.

Which is why I’m emphasizing top tier SP, even Rodon/Eovaldi/Bassit gets you 7 wins over our guys. Much more than trading Abreu for Mountcastle

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OriolesMagic83 Hangout Grand Counsel

OriolesMagic83

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1 hour ago, MarCakes21 said:

Yes definitely. Look at what you’d replace and from where. Say you replace Wells/Voth/Watkins (pick two) for deGrom/Verlander/Rodon (pick two). That’s an easy gain of 10 wins. Assume no improvement from anyone else and you’re at mid-90s wins. That puts you in competition for the AL east and a WS.

Which is why I’m emphasizing top tier SP, even Rodon/Eovaldi/Bassit gets you 7 wins over our guys. Much more than trading Abreu for Mountcastle

7 extra wins for any SP seems extremely optimistic, or are you assuming the bullpen will perform better with a guy who goes 6 or 7 innings regularly.

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MarCakes21 Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

MarCakes21

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Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

7 extra wins for any SP seems extremely optimistic, or are you assuming the bullpen will perform better with a guy who goes 6 or 7 innings regularly.

Hence the (pick two) words I wrote

I also think the bullpen would improve but that’s not the exercise

Edited by MarCakes21
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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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10 hours ago, Pickles said:

Absolutely.  You can define "monster" talent however you want, but this team needs about 8 wins to be considered in the top echelon of AL clubs.

I think they need a few more than that.  When assessing how next year might go, it’s important to keep sight of the fact that this team was outscored by its opponents and had a Pythagorean record of 79-83.   For me the baseline assumption is that they can’t be counted on to outperform their Pythag again.  

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Jim'sKid26 Major Leaguer Rising Star

Jim'sKid26

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So in 2023 if you add Judge and Verlander and they perform to their career averages, (big assumption but it's a hypothetical exercise), what happens assuming no other roster changes:

Catcher: The team improves with a full year of Adley

1B: unknown impact as Mountcastle is young but regressed offensively in 2022.

2B: any warm body is likely better than Oder and Westburg or Vavra are likely league average

SS: do you bring the Fielding Bible winner back? Likely

3B: The team improves with a full year of Gunnar and Urias moves to Utility

LF: Judge plays here and is a big upgrade over Hayes who becomes the 4th OF

CF: Another year of Mullins or do you trade him for pitching?

RF: Santander? Cowser? Stowers? 

DH: Lots of options without a fulltime occupant

SP: Well lets hope Verlander stays healthy, the young guys have to produce, can you count on them to?

RP: I suspect you will get some regression but you can hope against hope....

Overall the team is likely better. With health and luck you contend for the Division. Likely make the playoffs.

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Pickles Hangout Grand Counsel

Pickles

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40 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think they need a few more than that.  When assessing how next year might go, it’s important to keep sight of the fact that this team was outscored by its opponents and had a Pythagorean record of 79-83.   For me the baseline assumption is that they can’t be counted on to outperform their Pythag again.  

I'm saying 80 runs not based on last year's wins/runs total, but on the projection for 2023.  The fangraphs projection released yesterday had us at +20, and the best teams in the league, at +105.

Personally, that seems intuitively about right.  I guess opinions can vary.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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Just now, Pickles said:

I'm saying 80 runs not based on last year's wins/runs total, but on the projection for 2023.  The fangraphs projection released yesterday had us at +20, and the best teams in the league, at +105.

Personally, that seems intuitively about right.  I guess opinions can vary.

That’s interesting, I guess they see us as a team that should expect some internal improvement.  It makes some sense, with a full year of Adley and Gunnar and some other young guys on the rise.   

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Pickles Hangout Grand Counsel

Pickles

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Just now, Frobby said:

That’s interesting, I guess they see us as a team that should expect some internal improvement.  It makes some sense, with a full year of Adley and Gunnar and some other young guys on the rise.   

Oh, yeah, they are projecting Adley to improve, and Gunnar to be worth over 4 wins.  Rodriguez pushing 2 wins.  So, again it's their projections, but they see as an above average team already, fueled by internal improvements.  

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Aristotelian Hangout Grand Counsel

Aristotelian

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50 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think they need a few more than that.  When assessing how next year might go, it’s important to keep sight of the fact that this team was outscored by its opponents and had a Pythagorean record of 79-83.   For me the baseline assumption is that they can’t be counted on to outperform their Pythag again.  

I am confused by the 8 wins. In addition to last year's team? Or in addition to *this* year's team, which likely includes Grayson, Gunnar, and an extra month of Adley, while subtracting Odor and Chirinos? I think this year's team plus Judge and Verlander (or my preference, Ohatni and Verlander) would be pretty competitive with the elite teams. 

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