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Rutschman named ROY finalist

Frobby

By Frobby
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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

Posted
Posted

No surprise here, except that the third finalist was Steven Kwan over Jeremy Pena.  According to Fangraphs, this is the first time two rookies (Rutschman and Rodriguez) exceeded 5 fWAR in the same season since 2001, when Pujols and Ichiro did it.  https://blogs.fangraphs.com/before-handing-out-awards-a-moment-of-appreciation-for-the-2022-rookie-class/

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Frobby
Frobby

He would have had to be psychic.   Anyway, rather than dwelling on this issue, I’d rather dwell on the fact that Adley was good enough to finish second in the ROY voting despite missing the first

Frobby
Frobby

No surprise here, except that the third finalist was Steven Kwan over Jeremy Pena.  According to Fangraphs, this is the first time two rookies (Rutschman and Rodriguez) exceeded 5 fWAR in the same sea

Moose Milligan
Moose Milligan

Julio will win this and he'll win it by a lot.  Obviously I am biased but I believe AR should win it, his value was tremendous.  At the very least, it should be closer than it will be.  

DrinkinWithFermi Perennial All-Star

DrinkinWithFermi

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Postseason has nothing to do with these awards.

Unless the votes are locked in prior to the playoffs- and maybe they are, I don't know- then I am sure it does affect how they see the candidates to some degree, even if only on a subconscious level.

If they are locked in before that, then sure. Obviously it can't affect it.

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DrinkinWithFermi Perennial All-Star

DrinkinWithFermi

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1 minute ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Unless the votes are locked in prior to the playoffs- and maybe they are, I don't know- then I am sure it does affect how they see the candidates to some degree, even if only on a subconscious level.

If they are locked in before that, then sure. Obviously it can't affect it.

 

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

To be clear, the votes occur before the postseason is even played.  They just announce them later.  

Well, there ya go.

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Just Regular Hangout Grand Counsel

Just Regular

Posted
Posted

I believe tomorrow's the big day for rookies.    At stake is maybe whether Adley's 2028 will be a FA year or an Arb4 season.

I know some have examined the Arb share relative to market value - the mnemonic I use for the three regular Arb years is start at 25%, then increase 50% per year.     So back of envelope, 25-38-55 is about an Arb1-2-3 sequence.   Santander a medium good Arb3 headed toward $7.5mm - if he maintains his quality in 2023 he may earn his way to $12-$15mm AAV for one or two years at his peak.

Arb4's are only about the Top 20% of players by service time - Adley's big chunk in 2022 puts him in that mix - another 50% bump would make ~55% a touch over 80%.    7-win Adley with inflation - let's say he's a $40mm/AAV guy near 2030, though catcher load once near 30 may limit that some.     Mauer and Realmuto at $23 still the top of the scale today.

I'll guesstimate that things generally going well, the 2028 delta for 2nd place Adley vs. 3rd place Adley is perhaps $20mm from a restricted BAL market, or $30-35mm from the market at large.     

A $10-15mm delta that maps to a Comp A draft pick with pool allotment about $2-3mm, if you allow Cohen's share draft pool dollars represent about 5X market value.

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