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2022 #7 prospect Joey Ortiz - SS


Tony-OH

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No one in the system took a bigger jump in prospect status then Ortiz who comes in as the #7 prospect.

Joey Ortiz
Pos: SS/2B
Bats: R
Throws: R
Age (as of Jun 30th) : 23
2021 Level: AA/AAA

Tools (current/future value)
Hit: 40/50
Game Power: 45/50
Raw Power: 50/50
Run: 50/50
Defense: 55/60

Most Likely Future Role: Starting SS
Ceiling: 1st Division Starting SS

Stats

What we know: Despite missing most of 2021 due to a left shoulder injury that required labrum surgery last year, Ortiz was sent directly to Bowie to start 2023. The former 4th round pick started the season slow as he admittedly was not 100% strength wise at the start of the season. Through July 10th, Ortiz slashed just .216/.274/.328/.601 with just four home runs and 59Ks and just 19 BBs in 314 PAs. Then, whether it was because he started to get fully healthy or because he made some adjustments, Ortiz became a completely different player. Over the next 38 games, he slashed .372/.453/.703/1.156 with 11 home runs and 14 doubles, 22 BBs and 22Ks in his next 171 PAs. That heater earned him a promotion to Norfolk where he didn’t stop hitting, slashing .346/.400/.567/.967 with 11 extra base hits, including four homers while striking out 17 times in 115 PAs.

Ortiz uses a gap to gap approach with a very balanced approach at the plate, rarely fooled on breaking pitches or beaten with fastballs. He will chase a low and away slider on occasion, but over his last 286 PAs between Bowie and Norfolk, there was not a better hitter in the system. His 7.4% overall (7.5% (AA) and 7.1% (AAA)) swinging strike rates was the lowest in the system and his 16.3% K rate was second only to Cesar Prieto for any hitter with more than 300 PAs.

He’s more of a pull power guy so Camden Yards could degrade some of his power, but he’s a gap to gap guy who will still hit his share of doubles.

Defensively, he’s easily the best defensive shortstop in the system who is major league ready with the glove. He has plus range, very good hands, turns the double play well, has great baseball instincts, and a solid average major league shortstop arm. When he plays second base he’s a plus-plus defender there, but his value and future is at shortstop long term.

What we don’t know: It’s rare to have a player with such a tale of two seasons, but the defense was consistent throughout the season. While the defense is no doubt major league ready, the question is whether Ortiz’s bat is for real or whether he was just on an incredibly heater.

What we think: No one upped his stock more than Ortiz in 2022 as he made himself a legitimate everyday shortstop prospect. Personally, I like him more than some others due to his outstanding swinging strike and K rates, but he needs to prove it next year. He’ll get his opportunity next spring, but could find himself back in AAA depending on offseason moves and his performance next spring. If Ortiz can become an everyday 1st Divisions shortstop, his ranking could be a little low, even in this deep system. Don’t count him out in winning an opening day start at either SS or 2B in 2023.

https://orioleshangout.com/2022-orioles-7-prospect-joey-ortiz-ss/

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After Gunnar, Ortiz was the best story in the whole system in 2022.   I don’t really believe his “heater” numbers, but then again, I don’t believe his early season numbers either.  You put it all together and you get .284/.349/.477 and I think that’s a pretty good representation of the player.   And those numbers with above average defense by major league standards equals one very good player.  

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1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Tony, what did the people you talked to think of him?  Did they buy into the bat or were they more of a “need more info” type responses?

Most were more conservative on his bat but like him overall because of the defense. I'm actually more bullish on the bat because of the low swinging strike % and LD%. In Camden he'll lose some homers but I think he'll be a high doubles guy with 12-15 homers.

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13 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I think the trade decision comes later.  Ortiz probably begins the season in AAA.

I agree Ortiz probably (not definitely) begins the season in AAA.   But that’s not the end of the discussion when it comes to the possibility that Mateo gets traded.   

1.  Is Gunnar going to play the same position everyday rather than moving around, and if so, where?

2.  Does Westburg make the team out of spring training, and if so, is he given a regular role, or is he a utility guy?

3.  Do the O’s keep Urias, and if so, does the reigning Gold Glover remain the regular at 3B, or does he move to 2B or a utility role?

4.  Is Vavra good enough at 2B to get regular time there, either as a starter or a frequent back-up?

5.  Do the O’s acquire another infielder?

There’s so many variables, it makes my head spin.   But if I’m the O’s, I’m definitely exploring what I could get for Mateo in a trade this winter, among other options.   
 

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7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I agree Ortiz probably (not definitely) begins the season in AAA.   But that’s not the end of the discussion when it comes to the possibility that Mateo gets traded.   

1.  Is Gunnar going to play the same position everyday rather than moving around, and if so, where?

2.  Does Westburg make the team out of spring training, and if so, is he given a regular role, or is he a utility guy?

3.  Do the O’s keep Urias, and if so, does the reigning Gold Glover remain the regular at 3B, or does he move to 2B or a utility role?

4.  Is Vavra good enough at 2B to get regular time there, either as a starter or a frequent back-up?

5.  Do the O’s acquire another infielder?

There’s so many variables, it makes my head spin.   But if I’m the O’s, I’m definitely exploring what I could get for Mateo in a trade this winter, among other options.   
 

Exploring is not trading.     I am in no hurry to trade any infielders.   ST will answer many of these questions.

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Just now, wildcard said:

Exploring is not trading.     I am in no hurry to trade any infielders.   ST will answer many of these questions.

You explore it so you can decide whether to do it.   It depends a lot on what Mateo’s market value is.  If he’s valued as a 3+ WAR SS, then trading him makes a lot of sense.  But if teams see him as a guy whose value is less than those numbers indicate, then you may be better off keeping him.  It just depends.  

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10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

There’s so many variables, it makes my head spin.   But if I’m the O’s, I’m definitely exploring what I could get for Mateo in a trade this winter, among other options.  

The way its settling for me is Ramon Urias is the priority trade guy, though the 3B Market still fuzzy with Justin Turner and Evan Longoria (retiring?) options declined, and Brian Anderson and Jeimer Candelario non-tenders possibly pending.     MIA and DET both become promising looking musical chairs if those Clubs move on.

The extra year of control as you'd helped parse probably gives Elias a little more valuable guy, and the lords of baseball putting their thumb on the scale to change the game in ways that I think help Mateo are what help separate them for me.

On Ortiz, him v. Westburg should be a fun battle come Spring.   Breaking a guy in, I believe good care of both of them is picking one for April-May and seeing how it goes.    Its a long season.

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I'm a bit surprised to see that Ortiz is this "low."  The praise for him on this board- not necessarily from Tony though- has been effusive.  It seems the consensus is he's an everyday SS/2b and he's ready immediately.  If that's true and we have six better guys than that, awesome!

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9 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

The way its settling for me is Ramon Urias is the priority trade guy, though the 3B Market still fuzzy with Justin Turner and Evan Longoria (retiring?) options declined, and Brian Anderson and Jeimer Candelario non-tenders possibly pending.     MIA and DET both become promising looking musical chairs if those Clubs move on.

The extra year of control as you'd helped parse probably gives Elias a little more valuable guy, and the lords of baseball putting their thumb on the scale to change the game in ways that I think help Mateo are what help separate them for me.

On Ortiz, him v. Westburg should be a fun battle come Spring.   Breaking a guy in, I believe good care of both of them is picking one for April-May and seeing how it goes.    Its a long season.

Honestly, we could trade both Mateo and Urias. Gunnar, Westburg, and Ortiz all appear ready to take over Opening Day or shortly thereafter if needed, and that still leaves us with Holliday in the pipeline. 

I agree, though, Urias seems like the more natural guy to have more value to another team, since Gunnar already has MLB experience and 3B appears to be his best position. Mateo would offer more versatility if we keep him around in a utility role. 

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