2022 #7 prospect Joey Ortiz - SS

[Frobby]

29 minutes ago, seak05 said:

Yeah, I remembered that chat as well. I'm curious as to Tony's take on Westburg's defense. If he's an above avg (not elite) defensive second basemen then I can see putting him above Ortiz...but I don't know, legit major league SS, I think I'd have Ortiz above Westburg and others. Tony definitely seems more bullish on Westburg and Mayo then I am (and he knows a heck of a lot more)

My impression from past reports is that he’s not above average (by major league standards) at 2B, but several steps ahead of Norby and Vavra.  Ortiz clearly provides more defensive value.   

[RZNJ]

14 minutes ago, Frobby said:

My impression from past reports is that he’s not above average (by major league standards) at 2B, but several steps ahead of Norby and Vavra.  Ortiz clearly provides more defensive value.   

Which past reports?  From Tony?   This is what Tony said September 2022.  

"Westburg just has below average arm strength for the left side of the infield. He's got plenty of lateral quickness in my estimation and he has a good game clock for throws, similar to Hardy but Hardy had the extra arm when he needed it, Westburg not so much."

Now, he's talking about him as a SS there because he hadn't seen much of him at 2B, but those sound like good attributes for a 2B.

And this: "His athleticism and quickness makes him have the ability to move and play adequate defense around the infield. I think he could be a plus 2B".

 

BINGO!   Take that!  LOL

Edited November 16, 2022 by RZNJ

[RZNJ]

2 hours ago, Pickles said:

The shift is going to effect second basemen as well- perhaps even more so than SS.  We can ask Tony, but I don't think Tony sees a plus defensive second baseman and specifically mentioned today a possible move to first base.

From Tony just two months ago. "His athleticism and quickness makes him have the ability to move and play adequate defense around the infield. I think he could be a plus 2B".

Don't kill the messenger.

[Frobby]

25 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

“His athleticism and quickness makes him have the ability to move and play adequate defense around the infield. I think he could be a plus 2B".

OK, I’ll stand semi-corrected.  We’ll have Tony’s latest report no later than Thursday and we’ll see what he says there.  In any event, if Westburg is ranked ahead of Ortiz it’s because he’s thought to be the better offensive player.   Ortiz is clearly thought to be the better defender, which is no knock on Westburg.  

[Pickles]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

From Tony just two months ago. "His athleticism and quickness makes him have the ability to move and play adequate defense around the infield. I think he could be a plus 2B".

Don't kill the messenger.

I get that there's a lot of belief that he'll be a + 2B, and then probably in diminishing degrees belief he'll be a + SS or 3B.

I'm just saying there are degrees to that belief, and it isn't a universal belief, and even if it was it isn't proof of an outcome.

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I get that there's a lot of belief that he'll be a + 2B, and then probably in diminishing degrees belief he'll be a + SS or 3B.

I'm just saying there are degrees to that belief, and it isn't a universal belief, and even if it was it isn't proof of an outcome.

Nothing is proof of an outcome.  It seems that there are many respected sources who believe Westburg will be average to plus at 2B.  It doesn’t mean that he will be.  
 

I haven’t seen one report anywhere that questions him being able to handle 2B.  That doesn’t mean he won’t turn into Steve Sax.  It just means it’s reasonable, based on available information to think he’ll be at least average there. If you want to say not everyone believes that, fine.   I haven’t seen anyone reputable, or anyone at all, actually say that.  

[foxfield]

I just read one report on OH where someone said he could be as bad at 2b as Steve Sax. Not sure how reputable…but it’s on the internet. You could even look it up!  

[Frobby]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/eric-longenhagen-chat-11-18-22/

Dan: Considering your top 100 ranks, do you see Joey Ortiz having a greater 2023 impact than Jordan Westburg?  Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: Not necessarily. If Jorge Mateo keeps playing well but Ramon Urias does not while Westburg keeps raking in the minors, then I could see a scenario where Westburg plays and not Ortiz.

Eric A Longenhagen: Ortiz skill foundation is partially his defense (the other is all the contact), and with the shift banned that becomes more important. His 50 FV is a bet on his long-term fit as an average everyday shortstop, Westburg certainly has more power than him, and his FV may change this offseason as my thoughts on what to do with these bat-first, shift-aided infield types solidifies.

[waroriole]

17 minutes ago, Frobby said:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/eric-longenhagen-chat-11-18-22/

Dan: Considering your top 100 ranks, do you see Joey Ortiz having a greater 2023 impact than Jordan Westburg?  Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: Not necessarily. If Jorge Mateo keeps playing well but Ramon Urias does not while Westburg keeps raking in the minors, then I could see a scenario where Westburg plays and not Ortiz.

Eric A Longenhagen: Ortiz skill foundation is partially his defense (the other is all the contact), and with the shift banned that becomes more important. His 50 FV is a bet on his long-term fit as an average everyday shortstop, Westburg certainly has more power than him, and his FV may change this offseason as my thoughts on what to do with these bat-first, shift-aided infield types solidifies.

I understand him saying Ortiz could have higher potential because of the certainty to play a ML SS. However, I think he’s underrating Westburg by calling him a bat first IF. He can play all 3 IF positions, even if he’s not an every day SS. 

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, waroriole said:

I understand him saying Ortiz could have higher potential because of the certainty to play a ML SS. However, I think he’s underrating Westburg by calling him a bat first IF. He can play all 3 IF positions, even if he’s not an every day SS. 

1. How much to they shift in AA and AAA?   I don't think I noticed the extreme shifts like you see in MLB.

2. There isn't a whole lot of history of Westburg at 2B to judge him on

3. If Westburg's range is a little below average at SS you'd think he'd have plenty for 3B (ie Ramon Urias).

4. Many SS with limited range (Schoop, Urias, etc.) move to 2B and are at least average over there.

[Tony-OH]

1 minute ago, waroriole said:

I understand him saying Ortiz could have higher potential because of the certainty to play a ML SS. However, I think he’s underrating Westburg by calling him a bat first IF. He can play all 3 IF positions, even if he’s not an every day SS. 

Ortiz vs Westburg was close for me which is a credit to him for closing that gap on Westburg. Westburg remind me more of a Ben Zobrist defensively in that he has the ability to play a lot of positions but may not be great any one particular one. 

Ortiz on the other hand is going to be a plus defender at SS and a plus-plus defender at second base. The only question is how much of that power, which is mostly pull, will be affected by Camden Yards? 

They were so close, but I decided that Westburg's power and overall hit tool has slightly more value, and I think he has the better chance to be an impact hitter at the major league level.

[waroriole]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

1. How much to they shift in AA and AAA?   I don't think I noticed the extreme shifts like you see in MLB.

2. There isn't a whole lot of history of Westburg at 2B to judge him on

3. If Westburg's range is a little below average at SS you'd think he'd have plenty for 3B (ie Ramon Urias).

4. Many SS with limited range (Schoop, Urias, etc.) move to 2B and are at least average over there.

1. True. I don’t watch a lot of milb but I don’t see a lot of overshifting. 
2. He played there more than 3B last year but I guess 2022 was his first real action at 2B. 
 

My concern is Tony mentioning you don’t want him playing SS or 3B regularly, but he won’t kill you there. 

[Just Regular]

There aren't as many pinch hitters these days, but Earl in Weaver on Strategy talked about his preference to make his best fielders his regulars.    It feels like this basket of candidates - he'd pick SS Mateo, 2B Ortiz.

I guess he also was the one with the brainwave to try that ridiculously ginormous 3B Ripken kid up the middle though.

[Number5]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

4. Many SS with limited range (Schoop, Urias, etc.) move to 2B and are at least average over there.

This has been true, but I'm guessing that the new shift rules will lead to teams looking to have guys with good range at 2B.  Hard to know the exact impact the shift will have on this, but it seems logical to think range at 2B will become more valuable going forward than it has been up until now.

[MarCakes21]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Ortiz vs Westburg was close for me which is a credit to him for closing that gap on Westburg. Westburg remind me more of a Ben Zobrist defensively in that he has the ability to play a lot of positions but may not be great any one particular one. 

Ortiz on the other hand is going to be a plus defender at SS and a plus-plus defender at second base. The only question is how much of that power, which is mostly pull, will be affected by Camden Yards? 

They were so close, but I decided that Westburg's power and overall hit tool has slightly more value, and I think he has the better chance to be an impact hitter at the major league level.

Say there was no Mateo or Ortiz, who plays SS at the ML level because of the glove?  Westburg or Gunnar?  Just wondering if there's a hit first infield option that the team has.