Orioles 2022 #2 Prospect Grayson Rodriguez - RHP

[Tony-OH]

Grayson Rodriguez
Throws: RHP
Age (as of Jun 30th) : 22
2022 Level: AAA

Pitches (current/future value)
Fastball: 65/70
Curveball: 50/55
Change: 65/70
Slider: 50/55
Command: 50/60

https://www.mlb.com/video/rodriguez-strikes-out-eight

2022 Highlights

Most Likely Future Role: Number two occasional All-Star
Ceiling: Top of the rotation starter, All-Star

What we know: For the 3^rd year in a row this big right-hander comes in as the 2^nd best prospect in the system. Using a 95-97 MPH fastball that can touch triple digits with good spin and carry, he generates a ton of swing and miss in the upper portion of the zone. He pairs his plus fastball with three offspeed pitches, a 83-85 mph split change, a high 70s curveball, and a mid-80s slider. The split-change is most consistent offspeed pitch that gets swings and misses with good downward and arm side run and can flash plus-plus at times. His hard curve and slider can also be swing and miss pitches and it depends on the game whether that’s his go to breaking ball. When he’s getting both over with movement he’s pretty hard to hit.

Rodriguez used his arsenal to dominate AAA hitters through his first 11 starts, holding them to a .168/.224/.254/.478, striking out 80, walking 14, while allowing just one home run over 56 innings.

Then, in the 6^th with two outs in a start against Jacksonville on June 1st, Rodriguez grabbed his side after a pitch and left the game immediately. He would be diagnosed with pulled lat muscle, spending three months on the IL before starting a rehab with Aberdeen on September 1^st.

Rodrigue would end up making three more starts with Norfolk in the last three weeks of the season and with Orioles out of things by then, they shut him down for the year.

Overall Rodriguez led the organization with just a 3.8% HR rate, tied for first with a 36.6% K rate, and was 4^th in swinging strike rate with 15.8%.

What we don’t know: Not much really. He was ready for the big leagues when he went down with the unfortunate lat pull and then showed he was healthy in his last few starts of the year though his command was not 100%. The only question is what does his stuff look like at 100 pitches as his season high was just 90 in the last start of the year, and he only went 80 or more in seven of his starts.

What we think: Rodriguez has all the makings of a top of the rotation starter stuff wise and if the Orioles ever take the kid gloves off him, we think Orioles fans should see that in 2023. The only issue will be how many innings will the Orioles allow him to pitch in 2023 after getting in just 75.2 this year and how will they mange those innings in order to have him fresh for a potential playoff run in September and October?

If he stays healthy, and the good news is his injury was not shoulder or arm related, then expect him to be a big part of the Orioles rotation in 2023.

[Ridgway22]

What's fun is that GR will be replacing our #5 starter, which means 20% of our games go from being fringe guy to potential top of rotation guy.  Any starter we sign (dream on Verlander deGrom et al, but whomever) then replaces #4. Now 40% of our games have mucho dramatically improved starting pitchers. This trickles down... longer quality starter outings and less early exits trickle down to fresher bullpen arms. The starter arms Hunger Gamed out of the rotation become bullpen options, etc.

Add DL Hall to the potential rotation calculus, and we might just have a recipe to piss off yankee fans for the next decade.

 

 

[Frobby]

Orioles to MLB:

”I’m afraid the Death Star will be fully operational when your friends arrive.”

For me the only question entering 2022 was whether Grayson couid adjust to the major league ball.   He answered that question with ease.  His injury was the biggest disappointment of 2022 by far.  But it will make his 2023 debut even sweeter.   

Here comes our Ace we’ve waited 20+ years for.
 

[Frobby]

From SG over in the Hall thread:

“I think Grayson‘s innings will need to be managed some but I think people are overrating just how much.”

Moving this discussion to the Grayson thread.  

The rookie IP leader this year was Joe Ryan, who threw 147 innings (plus 3 in the minors) after throwing a total of 92.2 between the majors and the minors in 2022.   That’s a 55 inning increase, 58 if you include the 3 MiL innings.   Apply that to Rodriguez and it gets you to 130. 

The Twins certainly didn’t baby Ryan.  He missed a few starts in late May/early June.  He had starts of 7, 7.2 and 7 innings in September.   

Seattle’s George Kirby threw 130 innings in the majors and 26 in the minors, after throwing 67.2 innings in the minors in 2021.  That’s an 89.2 inning increase.  He had three six-inning starts in September. By the way, he also made a relief appearance and a 7-inning start in the postseason, not included in the numbers above.

So, I don’t know how aggressive the O’s will be, but I see no reason Grayson can’t go at least 130 if healthy, and possibly a good bit more than that.