Orioles 2022 #1 Prospect Gunnar Henderson - 3B/SS

[Tony-OH]

Gunnar Henderson
Pos: Third baseman/SS
Bats: L
Throws: R
Age (as of Jun 30th) : 21
2022 Level: AA/AAA/Maj

Tools (current/future value)
Hit: 50/60
Game Power: 50/60
Raw Power: 60/65
Run: 60/50
Defense: 50/60

2022 Highlights

2022 Home run Highlights

What we know: No minor league player took a bigger jump in prospect status than Gunnar Henderson did in 2022. Starting the year off in Bowie (AA), Henderson looked like a completely different player at the plate from the year before, slashing .312/.452/.573/1.025 with 8 HRs and 13 2Bs, while drawing 41 BB with 38 K and a very low 8.3% swinging K rate in 208 PAs. That got him promoted to AAA just three weeks shy of his 21^st birthday.

In Norfolk, Henderson continue to hit slashing .288/.390/.504/.894 though his K rate rose a bit and his BB % fell. He did however find some success for the first time against southpaws slashing .253/.333/.460/.793 against them in 99 PAs, though with 39 Ks and only 2 home runs.

That led him to get promoted on August 31^st to Baltimore where to no ones surprise, hit a home run for his first major league hit in his first major league game. He would hold his own against big league pitching slashing .259/.349/.440/.788 with 17 BBs and 34 Ks. His 92.4 average exit velocity was 4 MPH over MLB average and his 9.8 barrel % and 53.7 hard hit % were well over major league averages.

He also showed to be a plus runner putting up 91^st percentile sprint speeds and surprising a few infielders with infield hits.

Defensively, he also made gains cutting down his errors at both shortstop and particularly at 3B where he started to get more playing time as he moved up the chain. He has good hands, solid quickness, and a strong accurate arm from both SS and 3B, but looks more well suited for 3B than SS. While he does have the current quickness to play shortstop, as he continues to gain weight and get bigger as he matures, third base will be where he ends up and should be a plus defensive 3B when it’s all said and done.

What we don’t know: Henderson answered most of the questions anyone could have about him wit the only one left is how well he will hit left-handers. He did improve his hitting of southpaws in AAA and considering the jumps he made in 2022, it would not surprise us if he closes that platoon gap significantly over the next few years at the big-league level. He can struggle with breaking pitches and offspeed pitches at times, but we expect those adjustments to continue next season

What we think: Henderson is pretty much universally considered one of, if not the top prospect in all of baseball and it’s easy to understand why. He has an advanced feel to hit, is not afraid to see a lot of pitches, and is just starting to fill out his power. When you add in his speed and defense, he has become a five-tool budding superstar. He’ll start 2023 at either 3B or SS with the Orioles depending on offseason moves.

[Ridgway22]

Be still my beating heart.

Watching him late last year, he just looked like, well, he belonged. It was interesting to compare / contrast him and Stowers, Kyle had his moments, but there is just an "it" factor that Gunnar has that you can dream on.

(AR has it also, but just seemed more, well,  expected)

Thx, Tony for your work in putting together these rankings / evaluations. Much appreciated.

 

[RZNJ]

Chicken or the egg?  Will where Henderson play in 22 be dictated by off-season moves or the other way around?

[Frobby]

What a write-up!   This guy has no current tool grade below 50 and projects to have four 60+ tools.  

From what I saw, he can handle SS defensively with no problem.  I’d peg him as somewhat better than major league average there.   If he ends up at 3B, it’s only because we have two other shortstops (Mateo and Ortiz) who are even better than that defensively.   What a nice situation to be in.  

All in all, the unexpected ascension of Henderson from nice top 50 prospect to arguably the best prospect in baseball was the biggest long term development of 2022 for this team.  It changed the ceiling and speed of our expected flight path. 

The point about Henderson’s struggles v. LHP reinforces my view that we need to find a reliable RHB this winter.   We’ve got Adley struggling with LHP a little, Mullins backsliding against them, Gunnar with some weakness there, and Cowser also has issues with them.   I think all can be better, but we still should address the issue, regardless of the fact that the new wall punishes RHB.

One last point: I like having Tony’s write-up right in the post, rather than in a separate article that is linked.  I know that happened out of expediency due to technical difficulties, but it’s actually better.   It saves a step, plus there’s no danger of the link becoming inoperative later, which has happened with some of the older top 30 write ups, much to my chagrin when I’ve tried to unearth them.  


 

[Tony-OH]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

What a write-up!   This guy has no current tool grade below 50 and projects to have four 60+ tools.  

From what I saw, he can handle SS defensively with no problem.  I’d peg him as somewhat better than major league average there.   If he ends up at 3B, it’s only because we have two other shortstops (Mateo and Ortiz) who are even better than that defensively.   What a nice situation to be in.  

All in all, the unexpected ascension of Henderson from nice top 50 prospect to arguably the best prospect in baseball was the biggest long term development of 2022 for this team.  It changed the ceiling and speed of our expected flight path. 

The point about Henderson’s struggles v. LHP reinforces my view that we need to find a reliable RHB this winter.   We’ve got Adley struggling with LHP a little, Mullins backsliding against them, Gunnar with some weakness there, and Cowser also has issues with them.   I think all can be better, but we still should address the issue, regardless of the fact that the new wall punishes RHB.

One last point: I like having Tony’s write-up right in the post, rather than in a separate article that is linked.  I know that happened out of expediency due to technical difficulties, but it’s actually better.   It saves a step, plus there’s no danger of the link becoming inoperative later, which has happened with some of the older top 30 write ups, much to my chagrin when I’ve tried to unearth them.  


 

Trust me, due to the issue my service providing is having and their awful customer service, I'm thinking of ditching the whole regular site portion and posting everything in here. 

Thanks for the kind words as well.

[Tony-OH]

Added links in his profiles to his 2022 highlights and home run highlights.

If you aren't pumped about the future with this kid, you are not an Orioles fan. lol

[Sports Guy]

In a recent ESPN article, predicting next years awards, the writers felt that it was Gunnar’s to lose.

One interesting thing in the article was Schoenfeld talking about how it would be fun to see Adley vs Julio in the MVP discussion and they had Adley as a potential candidate.

The overall Adley Vs Gunnar discussion will be fun to have.  Glad we have them both but it’s going to be good message board/social media stuff for years to come.

[Moose Milligan]

Should back the truck up for him and Adley now.  

[Frobby]

19 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Added links in his profiles to his 2022 highlights and home run highlights.

If you aren't pumped about the future with this kid, you are not an Orioles fan. lol

Those highlights…can we start the 2023 season tomorrow?   His swing is so sweet, and that opposite field power is something you rarely see.  

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Should back the truck up for him and Adley now.  

Don’t need to.  Certainly could.

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Don’t need to.  Certainly could.

I see all this talk about how smart the Braves are, how good the Braves are.  IMO, if he were on the Braves they'd have done it by now...or well on their way to doing so.  

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I see all this talk about how smart the Braves are, how good the Braves are.  IMO, if he were on the Braves they'd have done it by now...or well on their way to doing so.  

I think the whole thing is blown out of proportion. I’m more than happy to see them signed but I don’t think it’s the top priority others do.

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

I think the whole thing is blown out of proportion. I’m more than happy to see them signed but I don’t think it’s the top priority others do.

Well you're the guy on here always crowing about what other teams in the sport do and how smart other teams are well run, I don't understand why this wouldn't be a top priority for you.  

Mind you, I'm not saying it's THE top priority but I believe it should be A top priority to avoid a Machado situation.  A team like the Braves will most likely be stacked for the rest of the decade, I'd like us to be in the same boat.  

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think the whole thing is blown out of proportion. I’m more than happy to see them signed but I don’t think it’s the top priority others do.

From that exercise I did looking at all 30 current pre-Arb deals that extended into free agency, they seem like pretty much a 50/50 proposition.  I was struck by how many players had a season or two, if not their whole careers, derailed by injury in a way that made their deals unfavorable compared to going year by year.   But, a few big wins can make up for several losses, and as a fan, it’s fun to know that a player you like is locked up through his prime.  

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Well you're the guy on here always crowing about what other teams in the sport do and how smart other teams are well run, I don't understand why this wouldn't be a top priority for you.  

Mind you, I'm not saying it's THE top priority but I believe it should be A top priority to avoid a Machado situation.  A team like the Braves will most likely be stacked for the rest of the decade, I'd like us to be in the same boat.  

Because we have Adley cheap for 5 more years and Gunnar cheap for 6 more.

That gets Adley to pushing 30 years old.

You get Gunnar until he is 26/27.

I would like to get Adley done for 8 years and Gunnar for 8-10. 
 

But knowing we have them, especially Adley, through most of their prime, is good with me.  There’s a decent chance we won’t even want Adley for his 31-33 year old seasons, so if he just walks after arbitration, it may be a good thing.

Gunnar is the bigger deal imo but you have time.

Im all for them signing them but the way people talk, if it doesn’t get done this offseason, it’s a big failure on the part of Elias.  I just disagree with that.