What is your grade for Elias after his 4th year?

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Can you explain the grade for minor league talent scouting and analysis?  What are we talking about there, and why the relatively low grade for that?

They have not exactly found many minor league free agents that have been able to become good players for them at the major league level. 

I've always been led to believe that they can look at the analytics and identify guys in the minors who they can make some adjustments to and make them good major league players. Where are they?

Also, some of their evaluations lead a lot to be desired. Obviously the Bemboom thing makes me question whoever was involved in that evaluation, but there are others like why they think Tyler Nevin is a major league player or why they kept Isaac Mattson over Zach Pop. Who decided that Stowers shouldn't play against MLB lefties when he's hit them his whole career? 

Now that's not to say they are terrible, and that's why he gets a C, but there some questionable decisions that makes you wonder who are making these evaluations sometimes.

 

[24fps]

Elias is the guy virtually everybody has been clamoring for throughout the 20 years I've been lurking/posting/monitoring here, so I don't understand some of the more nit-picky criticisms in this thread. 

If his tenure was looked at like a college semester he would clearly have a solid A at this point and it wouldn't even be time for mid-terms.  Those are coming up this off season, so we will have the opportunity to judge him on both trades and (presumably) big-ticket FA acquisitions.  That could change things dramatically - or not, but so far the guy has been everything a long-term Orioles fan could hope for in a GM.

[SilverRocket]

4 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Drafting: A
Use of technology and Analytics: A
Development: A-
Trades: B
Waivers analysis: C+ 
International Signings: C (so far)
Minor league talent scouting and analysis: C
Major League talent acquisition: C

I agree with most of these but the Waivers grade seems really tough. We got Urias, Mateo, and half our bullpen that way. There were some failures too but in a rebuild, you can afford that, and there were far more successes than I expected.

[DrungoHazewood]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’ll go with B as well.   I think he misjudged his own team’s readiness to compete in 2022, and in hindsight, if he’d judged them more accurately he might have done more last winter to put the team in position to make the playoffs.  At the same time, he’s put the team in a really good long term position. This year, he’ll be judged on a different standard.  Playoffs or bust!

If on April 1st you asked 100 baseball experts if the Orioles would be contenders this year 108 of them would have said no.  I'm not going to gig Elias for not adequately preparing his 52-110 team for a deep playoff run.

[Can_of_corn]

47 minutes ago, interloper said:

I second this, if only because it's extremely rare that CoC stakes his name to an actual concrete opinion/participates in any poll, etc. 

Sure.

If you told me in November 2018 that the O's would finish the 2022 season with an 83-79 record with a pythag of 79-83 I'd say "That sounds about right".  If you also said that the O's had the best farm system in baseball going into the 2023 season I'd be pretty impressed.

He gets a solid B from me.

I'm not going to give him a huge amount of credit for 2022 when part of the reason it looks so impressive is how bad he kept the team from 2019-2021.

We all know that 2023 is going to be the real test, do they step forward or back, or just crab shuffle to the side?

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

 

We all know that 2023 is going to be the real test, do they step forward or back, or just crab shuffle to the side?

Remembering that the 2016 Astros did a “crab shuffle to the side” (from 86 wins to 84) before going into hyperdrive, I won’t get too upset if 2023 turns out to be a “flat” year for the O’s.   Of course, I’m hoping for more and would be disappointed with that outcome, but it wouldn’t drastically change my long-term outlook for the team unless some important pieces fall on their face in a way that seems lasting.  

[Too Tall]

With apologies to Elias to and all my education peers because I hate letter grades. They are all right in the supermarket if you want to differentiate between a Grade A turkey or a Grade C. I'll play anyway because it's snowing and I am bored.

A - for where we were to where we are now. 

A - for building a minor league pipeline that ranks as a comparative top tier system.

B - for getting us started in  the International Market - FROM SCRATCH. Now to produce.

B - for waver wire transactions. Think left side of infield and bull pen. I guess to get an A you'd have to hit on them all. Doubt that is possible.

Incomplete - for success at the major league level. We arn't there yet nor did many "experts" expect us to be. Stay tuned.

Now let's give Elias a raise and hope to H--- he and his band hangs around!

[btdart20]

I’ll go A-.  He’s planning the work and working the plan.  Good executives and analysts around him too.

He did miss on the timing but likely wanted to start seeing the ‘green shoots’ before going to ownership for more money.

The signing of Lyles was assertive.  Odd overpay at the time but Elias saw a guy he wanted and got him with our confederate money.  
He has hit on picks up and down the draft board.  
I trust Elias in general.

We are competitive again.

[tntoriole]

A from me.  He has made sound hires throughout the organization and changed the culture.  He has carefully executed a well designed plan.  He has been soundly behind his manager during the bad years. He is a no drama GM. 
The team behind scouting and development are outstanding and we are now on the cusp of great years 

Edited November 19, 2022 by tntoriole

[interloper]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Sure.

If you told me in November 2018 that the O's would finish the 2022 season with an 83-79 record with a pythag of 79-83 I'd say "That sounds about right".  If you also said that the O's had the best farm system in baseball going into the 2023 season I'd be pretty impressed.

He gets a solid B from me.

I'm not going to give him a huge amount of credit for 2022 when part of the reason it looks so impressive is how bad he kept the team from 2019-2021.

We all know that 2023 is going to be the real test, do they step forward or back, or just crab shuffle to the side?

Real talk, love to see this kind of post from you.

[Ohfan67]

5 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

They have not exactly found many minor league free agents that have been able to become good players for them at the major league level. 

I've always been led to believe that they can look at the analytics and identify guys in the minors who they can make some adjustments to and make them good major league players. Where are they?

Also, some of their evaluations lead a lot to be desired. Obviously the Bemboom thing makes me question whoever was involved in that evaluation, but there are others like why they think Tyler Nevin is a major league player or why they kept Isaac Mattson over Zach Pop. Who decided that Stowers shouldn't play against MLB lefties when he's hit them his whole career? 

Now that's not to say they are terrible, and that's why he gets a C, but there some questionable decisions that makes you wonder who are making these evaluations sometimes.

 

Voth, Mateo, Perez, Urias, Krehbiel, and Baker were all waiver pickups. The Orioles had the highest percentage of players that were acquired from waivers in all of MLB (by a large margin) and still won 83 games. I think the organization has done an above average job of finding scrap heap players that produce some value.  I think a C+ waiver wire grade is hard to justify. 

Edited November 19, 2022 by Ohfan67

[owknows]

8 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I think the thing giving me pause from giving him a A- or flat out A is that he hasn't really pulled off a major trade yet.  Or signed a major FA.  

 

Those are the primary reasons I give him an A

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

Voth, Mateo, Perez, Urias, Krehbiel, and Baker were all waiver pickups. The Orioles had the highest percentage of players that were acquired from waivers in all of MLB (by a large margin) and still won 83 games. I think the organization has done an above average job of finding scrap heap players that produce some value.  I think a C+ waiver wire grade is hard to justify. 

Have to dock him a full letter grade for making us watch Dwight Smith JR for two seasons.

[Ohfan67]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Have to dock him a full letter grade for making us watch Dwight Smith JR for two seasons.

Duly noted, but Dwight only appeared in 21 games in the second season. Maybe half a letter grade and a time out. 

[Tony-OH]

45 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

Voth, Mateo, Perez, Urias, Krehbiel, and Baker were all waiver pickups. The Orioles had the highest percentage of players that were acquired from waivers in all of MLB (by a large margin) and still won 83 games. I think the organization has done an above average job of finding scrap heap players that produce some value.  I think a C+ waiver wire grade is hard to justify. 

But again, when you sit three years in a row with the #1 waiver claim, they sure better find some players. 

I could list all the waiver failures too, but you know them. Basically they yank pretty much everyone worth anything off waivers and then try and slip through the ones that don't work out. 

Sure, they've found some good role players and had some success on waiver claims, but I think they are little above average (C+) overall considering their place in the waiver queue for three years.