The Third Base Market - Ramon Urias Trade Speculation

[RZNJ]

Before you guys laugh too hard and hurt yourselves remember that at this time last year.

1. Bradish was thought of as a future bullpen piece

2. Kremer stunk and was an afterthought coming into 2022.

3. Felix Bautista had a great arm but couldn’t be trusted to throw strikes and some wondered if he’d even protected in the rule 5.

4. Mateo was thought of as a utility player.

5.. Urias was thought of as a 2B

 

[Frobby]

I think we should shop both Urias and Mateo and let the market tell us which one is valued more highly.  I suspect it’s Urias because he has an extra year of team control compared to Mateo, and WAR tells us his advantage with the bat outweighs Mateo’s glove and speed.  

[RZNJ]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think we should shop both Urias and Mateo and let the market tell us which one is valued more highly.  I suspect it’s Urias because he has an extra year of team control compared to Mateo, and WAR tells us his advantage with the bat outweighs Mateo’s glove and speed.  

Agreed. Especially if 3B is Hendersons home which works the best for fitting our other prospects in eventually.   You have a pretty good idea what you have in Urias.  It might be nice to see what Mateo looks like with his first full year under his belt.   

[Just Regular]

A few results from sources on 3B around the league.

Lowest 2022 WAA: OAK, LAA, TEX, WSN, DET, NYM, CHW

Lowest 2023 Steamer WAR forecast for today's Roster Resource starter: WSN, CHC, CIN, OAK, DET, SFG, NYY, MIA

WSN and OAK just don't care.    Is CHC serious enough about 2023 they care?   Will Stroman get frustrated if they don't?    If they buy Correa and need to budget elsewhere, maybe.

CIN would love to shed Moustakas $$$ - can he still play at all for the Brantley-Belt role?    Between R. Urias surplus value and Moustakas underwater, maybe they give us something nice to make him go away.

DET looks like a fit, but first they'll try to squeeze Candelario to their price.    Is new GM keeping Eduardo?    Are we close enough to success to rent a dominant reliever like Joe Jimenez?

SFG interesting.   Ramon Urias doesn't seem good enough for Big Market Spender, but Wilmer Flores and JD Davis near top of their depth chart are players he'd complement well.    If they succeed at using All the Money in the World on Judge...check back.     Jilted Justin Turner would be another chapter in SFG-LAD drama there.

MIA we've talked to death.    Perhaps the end of the marathon Elias-Ng work will be a 13 player trade.

 

[MarCakes21]

12 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Agreed. Especially if 3B is Hendersons home which works the best for fitting our other prospects in eventually.   You have a pretty good idea what you have in Urias.  It might be nice to see what Mateo looks like with his first full year under his belt.   

I know the FO won't say it, but I want to hear where they think Gunnar will play.  If he's above average for at least the next 5 years at SS, he carries so much value there.

The difference in value between Mateo and Urias from the board seems to be the extra year.  However, I still think that in a single year environment, teams would value Mateo higher due to things they can't produce like defense and speed.  Yes, maybe hes a below average hitter, but the speed clearly still played.

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

I still think that in a single year environment, teams would value Mateo higher due to things they can't produce like defense and speed.  Yes, maybe hes a below average hitter, but the speed clearly still played.

I think you’re underestimating just how bad a .221/.267/.379 offensive slash line is.   Of the 130 qualified batters in MLB, Mateo ranked 125th in wOBA.   That is absolutely terrible.  Speed does not make up for that. 

I think for a team to value Mateo higher than Urias, they have to believe they can make a better hitter out of him, or they have to have a really big hole at SS that they need a top defender to fill.   

 

[RZNJ]

9 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

I know the FO won't say it, but I want to hear where they think Gunnar will play.  If he's above average for at least the next 5 years at SS, he carries so much value there.

The difference in value between Mateo and Urias from the board seems to be the extra year.  However, I still think that in a single year environment, teams would value Mateo higher due to things they can't produce like defense and speed.  Yes, maybe hes a below average hitter, but the speed clearly still played.

Yes. The $64,000 question is where do they prefer to play Henderson.  I am a broken record but so many decisions are affected by that one decision. 

[Sports Guy]

56 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Before you guys laugh too hard and hurt yourselves remember that at this time last year.

1. Bradish was thought of as a future bullpen piece

2. Kremer stunk and was an afterthought coming into 2022.

3. Felix Bautista had a great arm but couldn’t be trusted to throw strikes and some wondered if he’d even protected in the rule 5.

4. Mateo was thought of as a utility player.

5.. Urias was thought of as a 2B

 

And this time next year, many of these things may prove to be accurate.

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think you’re underestimating just how bad a .221/.267/.379 offensive slash line is.   Of the 130 qualified batters in MLB, Mateo ranked 125th in wOBA.   That is absolutely terrible.  Speed does not make up for that. 

I think for a team to value Mateo higher than Urias, they have to believe they can make a better hitter out of him, or they have to have a really big hole at SS that they need a top defender to fill.   

 

Mateo has so many fans because he does a lot of really cool things that you don’t see often on the field.

Thats what sticks out to some and what drives their opinion on him.

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Mateo has so many fans because he does a lot of really cool things that you don’t see often on the field.

Thats what sticks out to some and what drives their opinion on him.

I agree.  He’s a fun player to watch.  If the question was “who’s more fun to watch, Mateo or Urias,” it wouldn’t be a close call, it’s Mateo hands down.  But that’s not how teams assess value.  

[Just Regular]

I did note this from Roch yesterday:

Mateo played only shortstop this year, with the Orioles wanting him to concentrate on one position while they evaluated him. He flourished, of course, winning a Fielding Bible Award, but he’s able to move around the infield.  

If Gunnar genuinely is a SS, 3B Urias, SS Gunnar, 2B Mateo could make it tough on all the younglings.

[MarCakes21]

45 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think you’re underestimating just how bad a .221/.267/.379 offensive slash line is.   Of the 130 qualified batters in MLB, Mateo ranked 125th in wOBA.   That is absolutely terrible.  Speed does not make up for that. 

I think for a team to value Mateo higher than Urias, they have to believe they can make a better hitter out of him, or they have to have a really big hole at SS that they need a top defender to fill.   

 

I understand that, but their overall WAR delta is minimal, and you cant teach speed is my point.  That speed will play at 30+ SB and GG caliber defense even with a .267 OBP.  He proved it.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, MarCakes21 said:

I understand that, but their overall WAR delta is minimal, and you cant teach speed is my point.  That speed will play at 30+ SB and GG caliber defense even with a .267 OBP.  He proved it.

Gunnar seems to be rather faster than when he was drafted.

You don't think some players can benefit from improvements in training and technique? 

[MarCakes21]

 

5 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

I did note this from Roch yesterday:

Mateo played only shortstop this year, with the Orioles wanting him to concentrate on one position while they evaluated him. He flourished, of course, winning a Fielding Bible Award, but he’s able to move around the infield.  

If Gunnar genuinely is a SS, 3B Urias, SS Gunnar, 2B Mateo could make it tough on all the younglings.

Right, and there's 16mil of excess value (approx) in both Mateo and Urias.  So then you trade Mateo for a 2-3 WAR SP or a single prospect in the top 100

[MarCakes21]

42 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Mateo has so many fans because he does a lot of really cool things that you don’t see often on the field.

Thats what sticks out to some and what drives their opinion on him.

Of course, hes got some Tatis (not the hitting, and likely other comps) in him, flair for wild hard plays.  But that's the exact reason I think the Os should trade Mateo over Urias, as I imagine there are teams that value the flair and the guy to watch for marketing purposes too.