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Orioles 2022 #14 Prospect Jud Fabian - OF


Tony-OH

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Jud Fabian
Pos: OF
Bats: R
Throws: L
Age (as of Jun 30th) : 21
2022 Level: FCL/A/A+

Tools (current/future value)
Hit: 40/45
Game Power: 45/55
Raw Power: 60/60
Run: 60/55
Defense: 60/65


Most Likely Future Role: 2nd Division center fielder
Ceiling: 1st Division center fielder


2022 Pro Highlights

What we know: The Orioles finally got their man in the 2nd round of the 2022 draft after the Red Sox grabbed him before they could in 2021. Fabian did not sign last year and ended up back in Florida where he showed good power (24 HR) along wit the ability to draw walks, but he hit just .239 after hitting just .249 the year before as a junior. The good news is he absolutely tore it up offensively in his first taste of pro ball, slashing .333/.455/.615/1.070 with 19 BBs and 21 Ks in 99 PAs across three levels. Fabian felt he was able to relax as a pro vs the pressure of playing in the SEC, but he did a pretty good job of staying off those high fastballs that he struggled with at times in college. Saying that, there is swing and miss to his offensive game and while he beat up mostly A Ball pitching, it remains to be seen how he’ll hit upper-level pitching that will exploit any weakness like high fastballs more often than A ball pitchers do.

The other good news is he’s a legitimate defensive center fielder even if he doesn’t have that pure speed you typically look for. He’s get very good jumps and has a plus arm, so even if he does play some corner, he has plenty of arm to be effective.      

What we don’t know: How will he hit upper level pitching? He hunted fastballs at times so can he hit good upper level offspeed pitches?

What we think: Fabian is one of those guys that is tooled up, but has two years of low averages in the SEC that worries some scouts. Even though he was a senior, he didn’t turn 22 until September so he’ll play most of next season at 22 as well. His first full minor league season next year should answer some of these questions about his bat against good offspeed pitches and high fastballs. He should start the year in Aberdeen and it would not surprise us if he ends the year in AA.

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Tony, I love everything you do. This is in no way a criticism, but why list out raw power as a second grade? Isn't raw power basically how good of a show you can put on in BP, or what we think your power would be in a perfect world where you put it all to use? Doesn't it only matter what you can get to in a game? Why not raw speed and raw arm as well?

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1 hour ago, ChosenOne21 said:

Tony, I love everything you do. This is in no way a criticism, but why list out raw power as a second grade? Isn't raw power basically how good of a show you can put on in BP, or what we think your power would be in a perfect world where you put it all to use? Doesn't it only matter what you can get to in a game? Why not raw speed and raw arm as well?

Short answer is, that’s how scouts do it.  It’s not a Tony thing.  Why do scouts do it?   I guess so they can dream on a guy’s power potential if they can just figure out a way to unlock it.   

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2 hours ago, ChosenOne21 said:

Tony, I love everything you do. This is in no way a criticism, but why list out raw power as a second grade? Isn't raw power basically how good of a show you can put on in BP, or what we think your power would be in a perfect world where you put it all to use? Doesn't it only matter what you can get to in a game? Why not raw speed and raw arm as well?

Three outcome game doesn't involve speed and arm strength for a batter.  A scout once told me that your Raw Power is your ceiling & your floor, your hit tool is a map on your ability to reach your ceiling/floor, & all the other tools are extras.   Currently there is a 'designated hitter' position in baseball but no 'designated fielder'.  

Edited by emmett16
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3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

What is the thinking behind the gap between current and projected defense?

I think as an outfielder, we need to see how he can play with major league park upperdecks. Once he can establish that you can add to his defense. But he's a plus defender.

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1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Short answer is, that’s how scouts do it.  It’s not a Tony thing.  Why do scouts do it?   I guess so they can dream on a guy’s power potential if they can just figure out a way to unlock it.   

 

2 hours ago, ChosenOne21 said:

Tony, I love everything you do. This is in no way a criticism, but why list out raw power as a second grade? Isn't raw power basically how good of a show you can put on in BP, or what we think your power would be in a perfect world where you put it all to use? Doesn't it only matter what you can get to in a game? Why not raw speed and raw arm as well?

 

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Short answer is, that’s how scouts do it.  It’s not a Tony thing.  Why do scouts do it?   I guess so they can dream on a guy’s power potential if they can just figure out a way to unlock it.   

Frobby answered it pretty good. The reason why I wanna know pure raw power is because I want to know what a player is starting with when it comes to the ability to impact a baseball. Not all players can get to it in games, but I do believe that is a skill that some players develop so the more you know about raw power, the more you know about game power potential. 

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25 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

 

 

Frobby answered it pretty good. The reason why I wanna know pure raw power is because I want to know what a player is starting with when it comes to the ability to impact a baseball. Not all players can get to it in games, but I do believe that is a skill that some players develop so the more you know about raw power, the more you know about game power potential. 

So I guess another question is, once you’ve evaluated raw power, what decides what future value for game power is?   And how do future grades for raw power suddenly increase?

Let’s take Westburg.  Last year he was evaluated as a guy with 45 raw power, 50 future raw power, 40/50 current/future game power.  Now a year later he’s seen as 55/60 raw power, 50/55 game power.   So what happened here?

Same with Norby. 40/45 raw, 35/45 game power a year ago.  Now he’s 50/60 raw, 50/60 game power.  If a guy had 45 future raw power a year ago, how can he be a 60 a year later?  Just a scouting miss, or did something specific happen here?
 

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1 minute ago, Frobby said:

So I guess another question is, once you’ve evaluated raw power, what decides what future value for game power is?   And how do future grades for raw power suddenly increase?

Let’s take Westburg.  Last year he was evaluated as a guy with 45 raw power, 50 future raw power, 40/50 current/future game power.  Now a year later he’s seen as 55/60 raw power, 50/55 game power.   So what happened here?

Same with Norby. 40/45 raw, 35/45 game power a year ago.  Now he’s 50/60 raw, 50/60 game power.  If a guy had 45 future raw power a year ago, how can he be a 60 a year later?  Just a scouting miss, or did something specific happen here?
 

It really just comes down things change when I get more information or players develop more. I didn't hear or read one thing from anyone that thought Norby had that kind of pop. Now it seems like he made a jump so I moved up his raw power.

 

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8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

  If a guy had 45 future raw power a year ago, how can he be a 60 a year later?  Just a scouting miss, or did something specific happen here?

 

Insert meme of Homer Simpson (with Brady Anderson's face) slowly and sheepishly receding into the bushes here.

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Just now, Tony-OH said:

It really just comes down things change when I get more information or players develop more. I didn't hear or read one thing from anyone that thought Norby had that kind of pop. Now it seems like he made a jump so I moved up his raw power.

 

Clearly you did the right thing to move it up, and I agree that nobody saw this coming from Norby.  But it kind of tells me that “future” grades on tools are something of a guess, that can be way off base.   Maybe that’s more true for power than speed, I suppose.  Not sure about the hit tool.  

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8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Clearly you did the right thing to move it up, and I agree that nobody saw this coming from Norby.  But it kind of tells me that “future” grades on tools are something of a guess, that can be way off base.   Maybe that’s more true for power than speed, I suppose.  Not sure about the hit tool.  

It's not an exact science and I've always said the higher the player gets in system the better I feel about the grades.

I wouldn't say they are guesses though. They are projections and sometimes players change or develop so the projections change.

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3 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

It's not an exact science and I've always said the higher the player gets in system the better I feel about the grades.

I wouldn't say they are guesses though. They are projections and sometimes players change or develop so the projections change.

Well, let’s say you have some lanky high school kid who’s 6-2, 180 and still has pretty good pop.  It’s easy to see how a guy like that might have a 40 current grade for raw power but a 60 FV, as you imagine him filling out and gaining strength.   It’s a little harder to fathom a 5’10” college 2B like Norby going from 45 FV raw power to 60.   Honestly, it’s easier to understand a game power jump; maybe he’s adjusted his swing plane or learned what pitches he can turn on.   But it seems like FV raw power shouldn’t be much more than what strength and bat speed are foreseeable for the future, and shouldn’t change much from one year to the next.  

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5 hours ago, Frobby said:

Well, let’s say you have some lanky high school kid who’s 6-2, 180 and still has pretty good pop.  It’s easy to see how a guy like that might have a 40 current grade for raw power but a 60 FV, as you imagine him filling out and gaining strength.   It’s a little harder to fathom a 5’10” college 2B like Norby going from 45 FV raw power to 60.   Honestly, it’s easier to understand a game power jump; maybe he’s adjusted his swing plane or learned what pitches he can turn on.   But it seems like FV raw power shouldn’t be much more than what strength and bat speed are foreseeable for the future, and shouldn’t change much from one year to the next.  

I was able to see him more as a pro and watched some of home runs and realized he has much better raw power with the distance and EV information that I didn't have before.

Unlike some other places around the net, I will adjust my grades even if it makes me wrong the year before. I prefer to try  and give the best information as possible with the information available at the time.

Fangraphs have him still listed at 45 Raw Power potential.

 

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