Orioles 2022 #15 Prospect Max Wagner

[Tony-OH]

Max Wagner
Pos: 3B
Bats: R
Throws: R
Age (as of Jun 30th) : 20
2022 Level: FCL/A/A+

Tools (current/future value)
Hit: 40/50
Game Power: 45/55
Raw Power: 60/65
Run: 40/40
Defense: 45/50

Most Likely Future Role: 2^nd Division third baseman
Ceiling: 1st Division 3^rd baseman

What we know: A draft-eligible sophomore who exploded on the prospect scene when given the opportunity to play every day after starting the year as a reserve at Clemson. This relatively short, stocky (6-0, 215) right-handed hitter has above average bat speed and relatively short stroke to generate mostly pull, plus power. Saying that, there were questions by some scouts on his ability to hit plus velocity in the upper portion of the zone and some swing and miss overall, especially on sliders away.

In his pro debut, Wagner showed little power in his debut though he did get on base slashing .250/.403/.438/.841 in 62 PAs wit Delmarva. His K rate (21%) and swinging Strike rate (9.2%) at Delmarva were fine and his 14.5% Bb rate was above average so there were no red flags in his initial stats.

Defensively Wagener has an above average arm and moves well enough to be a solid defensive 3B. Some even believe he could play 2B at the professional level, but with below average foot speed and with shifts being taken away, 3B is his future position.

What we don’t know: How will he handle good velocity that will become more common at the upper levels? Was his sudden jump in power a breakout, or just a heater against sub-par college pitching?

What we think: Wagner reminds us a bit of Connor Norby as a hitter and we saw what he did in his first full professional season. The good news is that Wagner can legitimately play 3B defensively so if he’s able to get to his game power, he could be Norby without defensive concerns. Wagner should start next year in Aberdeen but should be advanced enough to get some AA time before the year is out.

[LookinUp]

I didn't realize he was so young. So that's good. It's a nice profile and he could theoretically progress to be ready for the majors by the end of 2024, or at least 2025, when he's 22/23 years old. 

All of these 22 draftees will be interesting follows. Makes sense to have them in the 11-20 range by potential. We'll see how they perform in a full season.

[Frobby]

I feel like we hear very little about Wagner compared to our other top draftees of 2022.  He could be a steal.  

[linedrive]

As much as I like Wagner as a prospect, I didn't think he showed enough in the minors to warrant this spot. But still nice to hear this perspective.

[MarCakes21]

17 minutes ago, linedrive said:

As much as I like Wagner as a prospect, I didn't think he showed enough in the minors to warrant this spot. But still nice to hear this perspective.

I'm confused, ranked 15th, who would you put ahead?  We're talking about a guy who could be a starting 3B based on his current profile.  He's a Vavra or Norby comp with more defense.

Normally at 15, we have guys who we hope pan out to be a reliever at best.  We still have guys in this area with first team makeup. 

[RZNJ]

24 minutes ago, linedrive said:

As much as I like Wagner as a prospect, I didn't think he showed enough in the minors to warrant this spot. But still nice to hear this perspective.

I think this is where draft pedigree comes in.   I think you could make the argument that Hernaiz and Bencosme warrant being higher than Wagner but I can also see having Wagner higher.  Wagner didn't do any worse than Norby did last year after being drafted.   Just like 4-9 could be considered almost interchangeable in the top ten I think after Basallo at #11, you could have a lot of combinations from 11-20 probably.

[RZNJ]

7 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

I'm confused, ranked 15th, who would you put ahead?  We're talking about a guy who could be a starting 3B based on his current profile.  He's a Vavra or Norby comp with more defense.

Normally at 15, we have guys who we hope pan out to be a reliever at best.  We still have guys in this area with first team makeup. 

I don't think he's a Norby comp just yet.   He's a 2021 Norby comp but he's not a 2022 Norby comp.    I'd say Hernaiz who is, I think, virtually the same age as Wagner, could be argued to be above Wagner in the rankings.   How about Bencosme who is a year younger?    

[owknows]

1 hour ago, linedrive said:

As much as I like Wagner as a prospect, I didn't think he showed enough in the minors to warrant this spot. But still nice to hear this perspective.

He played 19 games.

[linedrive]

5 hours ago, MarCakes21 said:

I'm confused, ranked 15th, who would you put ahead?  We're talking about a guy who could be a starting 3B based on his current profile.  He's a Vavra or Norby comp with more defense.

Normally at 15, we have guys who we hope pan out to be a reliever at best.  We still have guys in this area with first team makeup. 

Not sure why you're confused. Just my opinion. In the poll, I voted for Seth Johnson at #15 and Darell Hernaiz at #16. I like Johnson better at #15 because of all the buzz about him and the write-up in his profile. Wagner only had 70 at bats last season. Based on those 70 at bats, I didn't think he wasn't impressive enough to warrant a #15 ranking to me. Only one home run. Batting average was unimpressive. Hernaiz, on the other hand, had over 400 at bats and looked impressive over three levels: 5 triples, 12 home runs, 32 stolen bases. I'd call that a pretty impressive season over someone with 70 uninspiring at bats. Personally, I think it's too early to compare Wagner to a Norby with more defense. He'll have to put up some numbers first. Just my opinion. But, like I was trying to say, I appreciated Wagner's write-up and was pleasantly surprised by it. Maybe by this time next year he'll jump up even further, and I'll be tickled pink.

[linedrive]

4 hours ago, owknows said:

He played 19 games.

Correct. That was part of my point. Someone like Hernaiz played in 105 games and accomplished much, much more.

[Tony-OH]

6 hours ago, owknows said:

He played 19 games.

Exactly. I put very little into their pro debut numbers unless they are shocking good or bad, and even then they get put in with a grain of salt.

Wagner does have an upside of everyday power hitting 3B. That's much better than a utility profile of guys like Hernaiz and Bencosme. 

Wagner is a legitimate 2nd round pick and if his breakout last year in college was real, there is nice upside here. 

The system is pretty solid when I can rank these guys 12-15. I could have swapped Beavers, Fabian and Wagner around. 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, linedrive said:

Correct. That was part of my point. Someone like Hernaiz played in 105 games and accomplished much, much more.

It's silly to go just by minor league performance when you have new draft picks. You have to consider their scouting reports coming out of college and ceiling when putting them on the list. 

If Wagner and Hernaiz are each available in the draft this year, who do you think is getting more money? It's Wagner and it's not all that close.

Wagner has a better hit tool, better power tool, and better defense tool.

[Frobby]

11 hours ago, linedrive said:

Correct. That was part of my point. Someone like Hernaiz played in 105 games and accomplished much, much more.

You can’t really hold it against Wagner that he was drafted in mid-July and therefore played only a fraction of the games Hernaiz did.  You just have to go one what you have, same as the other 2022 draftees.   And with a sample size that small, you have to consider college performance and whatever the scouting report was before the player was drafted.  

That said, it’s worth noting that Hernaiz and Wagner were both born in August 2001.

 

[linedrive]

19 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

It's silly to go just by minor league performance when you have new draft picks. You have to consider their scouting reports coming out of college and ceiling when putting them on the list. 

If Wagner and Hernaiz are each available in the draft this year, who do you think is getting more money? It's Wagner and it's not all that close.

Wagner has a better hit tool, better power tool, and better defense tool.

I'm not disputing any of that. What I was trying to say is that I was pleasantly surprised by Wagner at #15. Not that he was undeserving. I think you made a fine case for Wagner's position based on information I was unaware of. I was simply explaining why I thought Hernaiz was going to be the #15 prospect, and it was based on limited information. That's all.

[linedrive]

9 hours ago, Frobby said:

You can’t really hold it against Wagner that he was drafted in mid-July and therefore played only a fraction of the games Hernaiz did.  You just have to go one what you have, same as the other 2022 draftees.   And with a sample size that small, you have to consider college performance and whatever the scouting report was before the player was drafted.  

That said, it’s worth noting that Hernaiz and Wagner were both born in August 2001.

 

I absolutely agree. I wasn't complaining about Wagner's position at all. I just wasn't as well-informed about Wagner when I took the poll. I'm also not saying I was right about Hernaiz. Just that I was surprised. Nothing wrong with being surprised where certain prospects end up.