So...uh, when does free agency start?

[owknows]

Just now, interloper said:

Is anyone saying we should spend lavishly?

I've seen calls for signing Abreu, Correa, Verlander, DeGrom, Rodon, Bassit, Nimmo, Benintendi, and Eovaldi

So... yes,

[Frobby]

45 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

His ERA+'s for his last 3 seasons are:

2019- 106

2021- 100

2022-100

That is a #4 starter. Gambling $17.5 million a year for 4 years that he can be more than that as he gets further into his 30s is not a bet the Orioles should be willing to make.

Also, Jordan Lyles was worth 1.4 fWAR last year so Taillon's 2.3 isn't really all that impressive.

I think Bowden is off base on what Taillon will get.  But I do think he’ll get in excess of 3/$40 mm.

[Yardball85]

2 minutes ago, owknows said:

I've seen calls for signing Abreu, Correa, Verlander, DeGrom, Rodon, Bassit, Nimmo, Benintendi, and Eovaldi

So... yes,

What do you consider "lavishly?  Aside from Correa, Verlander deGrom, and Rodon, none of those players require "lavish" spending in today's market. 

[wildcard]

6 minutes ago, tabletop said:

Bassitt career K/9 is 8.2 while Kremer's is 7.1.
Bassitt career ERA is 3.45 while Kremer's is 4.55.
Bassitt career ERA+ is 118 while Kremer's is 92.
Bassitt career FIP is 3.81 while Kremer's is 4.57.

I know Kremer was great last year but what he did last year is about what you can expect from Bassitt. I don't think most expect Kremer to repeat last year. Even last year Kremer's FIP was 3.80.

I don't think Kremer repeats last year.   I think he gets better.   He didn't pitch in the majors last year until June 5th.   I expect he will get a full year.

The problem I have with Bassitt is that that it sounds like he wants a 3 year contract for his 34, 35 and age 36 years.   If you are looking for regression this is a player that should regress just because of age.

[interloper]

7 minutes ago, owknows said:

I've seen calls for signing Abreu, Correa, Verlander, DeGrom, Rodon, Bassit, Nimmo, Benintendi, and Eovaldi

So... yes,

I think with the exception of Correa and Rodon, none of these should really be considered lavish. Abreu I agree I would not have liked that contract, mostly because he's a 1B.

Verlander and deGrom will likely get short deals that wouldn't set your organization back if they flame out. They obviously aren't going to choose to come here though and will be looking for high-chance WS rings. 

 

Edited November 30, 2022 by interloper

[DrinkinWithFermi]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think Bowden is off base on what Taillon will get.  But I do think he’ll get in excess of 3/$40 mm.

Regardless of whether it ends up being $13 million for 3 years, $17 million for 4 years, or something in between, I would still prefer the Orioles aim higher than "marginal improvement over Jordan Lyles 2022."

If we are not going to do so, I would rather just bring back Lyles on a 1 year deal than give Taillon 3 or 4 years.

[interloper]

Other than Bassitt, my other SP wish is Senga. No idea if we'd make a play, or what kind of contract it would take, but he would be fun. 

Edited November 30, 2022 by interloper

[eddie83]

57 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Apparently Morosi was on MLBN and said the Os are the front runner for Bassitt.

Fine by me. They have to make a significant upgrade to the rotation. Then I would be in play later on in the off-season to see who is left. I could see the logic in a Lyles or a Manaea as a secondary piece depending on cost. 
 

The current rotation has some upside but it concerns me. No real proven commodities and an innings limit for GRod. I still think GRod should start in pen for half year and be in rotation second half to control innings. When he starts he will probably be a 5 IP.  
 

The fascinating part to me is the lineup. If they are legitimately going to make a some upgrades then they will have no choice but to make trades. Could also add a secondary SP that way as well. 

[tabletop]

27 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I don't think Kremer repeats last year.   I think he gets better.   He didn't pitch in the majors last year until June 5th.   I expect he will get a full year.

The problem I have with Bassitt is that that it sounds like he wants a 3 year contract for his 34, 35 and age 36 years.   If you are looking for regression this is a player that should regress just because of age.

I hope you're right but you are the only person I've seen that expects him to get better.

[btdart20]

5 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The problem I have with Bassitt is that that it sounds like he wants a 3 year contract for his 34, 35 and age 36 years.   If you are looking for regression this is a player that should regress just because of age.

Bassitt seems to be a guy who'll age "not poorly".  He's more finesse than overly reliant on power currently.  

[eddie83]

I am floored at what MLBTR think Manaea will get. 4/52. Wow. I get the upside but that’s not for me. 

[eddie83]

2 minutes ago, tabletop said:

I hope you're right but you are the only person I've seen that expects him to get better.

If he stayed the same I would be happy. 

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, tabletop said:

I hope you're right but you are the only person I've seen that expects him to get better.

Unsurprisingly 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

35 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I don't think Kremer repeats last year.   I think he gets better.

Based on what? His BABIP, strand rate, expected batting average, and expected slugging all suggest some degree of regression.

5 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

I am floored at what MLBTR think Manaea will get. 4/52. Wow. I get the upside but that’s not for me. 

Yeah, I think I'll pass on that contract. Yikes.

[wildcard]

9 minutes ago, tabletop said:

I hope you're right but you are the only person I've seen that expects him to get better.

Normally that works out for me. And I hope it does for Kremer.