Eovaldi vs Bassitt

[Sports Guy]

In terms of free agent pitchers, I think Eovaldi and Bassitt represent the 2 best pitchers the Orioles would realistically go after.  Whether or not they pony up the money and years for them is unknown but since the big names are realistically not on the board, you go down a peg.

For me, these guys represent better options than players like Taillon, Manaea and others like that.

Eovaldi and Bassitt have a higher upside than those guys do.  
 

Injuries are a concern for Eovaldi, which should keep his contract manageable. He threw 32 starts in 2021. He had only thrown 30 starts in one other year and that was way back in 2014.  His K rate has been under 2 in 4 of the last 5 years and his ERA has been under 4 in the same span.

He still misses bats at a high level as well.  The HR ball has been a big issue for him in 3 of the last 4 years but with Walltimore, he should be better than what he dealt with in Fenway.

Bassitt has been a little healthier.  He has thrown less homers. He gets less Ks but it’s close. He throws more walks but it’s close. 
 

According to statcast, one thing that Bassitt did well in 2022 was avoid hard contact he was one of  the best in the game in that regards. In his career, the average excited velo and hard hit % against him is well below league average.

Eovaldi’s numbers in those categories are well above average.

The barrel% numbers for Eovaldi aren’t good either.

This is close for me.  Good and bad on both sides. 

Looking at everything, Eovaldi has better stuff but Bassitt is probably the better pitcher and has been healthier.

I guess I would give the slight lean to Bassitt here depending on the contract but it’s pretty close.

[Daddy-O's]

I think Bassitt is the safer choice, but I was really hoping they would add a top of the rotation guy.

[eddie83]

I would sign both, but that won’t happen. 
 

Pretty much about the contract. Eovaldi is a strike machine. Our defense and park should help some. 
 

I’m assuming NO will be making a little less. Slight lean to him for me. I like fact he has pithed in division. Would be happy with either.  

[Aristotelian]

Both are better than Lyles. Would be very happy with either one.

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

In terms of free agent pitchers, I think Eovaldi and Bassitt represent the 2 best pitchers the Orioles would realistically go after.  Whether or not they pony up the money and years for them is unknown but since the big names are realistically not on the board, you go down a peg.

For me, these guys represent better options than players like Taillon, Manaea and others like that.

Eovaldi and Bassitt have a higher upside than those guys do.  
 

Injuries are a concern for Eovaldi, which should keep his contract manageable. He threw 32 starts in 2021. He had only thrown 30 starts in one other year and that was way back in 2014.  His K rate has been under 2 in 4 of the last 5 years and his ERA has been under 4 in the same span.

He still misses bats at a high level as well.  The HR ball has been a big issue for him in 3 of the last 4 years but with Walltimore, he should be better than what he dealt with in Fenway.

Bassitt has been a little healthier.  He has thrown less homers. He gets less Ks but it’s close. He throws more walks but it’s close. 
 

According to statcast, one thing that Bassitt did well in 2022 was avoid hard contact he was one of  the best in the game in that regards. In his career, the average excited velo and hard hit % against him is well below league average.

Eovaldi’s numbers in those categories are well above average.

The barrel% numbers for Eovaldi aren’t good either.

This is close for me.  Good and bad on both sides. 

Looking at everything, Eovaldi has better stuff but Bassitt is probably the better pitcher and has been healthier.

I guess I would give the slight lean to Bassitt here depending on the contract but it’s pretty close.

How does Basitt have more upside than Taillon?   According to Fangraphs Taillon has more WAR since 2016 than Basitt has since 2014.  He also has the highest WAR season (3.9) of the two.  He’s also 3 years younger.

[MarCakes21]

I lean towards both.  I think of both as solid no 2s when pitching well.  And both have the QO attached, so doesn't that decrease the cost of the second pick?  Ie, if you're going to lose one pick, might as well lose two?

[MarCakes21]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

How does Basitt have more upside than Taillon?   According to Fangraphs Taillon has more WAR since 2016 than Basitt has since 2014.  He also has the highest WAR season (3.9) of the two.  He’s also 3 years younger.

Relative, Tallion hasn't been quite as good since his UCL injury in 2019.  He did have his best season since 2018 this past year though.

I liken him to Syndegaard, there may be upside left, but it's less defined since it hasn't happened recently.

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

How does Basitt have more upside than Taillon?   According to Fangraphs Taillon has more WAR since 2016 than Basitt has since 2014.  He also has the highest WAR season (3.9) of the two.  He’s also 3 years younger.

Bassitt has had an ERA+ of 113 for five consecutive years, and a career figure of 118.   Taillon hasn’t been above 106 since 2018, with a career figure of 107.   

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

How does Basitt have more upside than Taillon?   According to Fangraphs Taillon has more WAR since 2016 than Basitt has since 2014.  He also has the highest WAR season (3.9) of the two.  He’s also 3 years younger.

I don’t really care that Taillon was a 3-4 WAR guy 4-5 years ago.  That’s not extremely relevant to today.

Bassitt has been worth about 2 more WAR the last few years. 

Taillon’s FIP has been worse the last few years.  Bassitt has the overall stat cast advantage as well although Taillon’s numbers aren’t bad in some of the main areas.

Taillon has better spin rates.

Bassitt is just a better pitcher imo.  Not saying it’s a huge margin or anything but I think he has the higher floor and is more likely to be the better pitcher.

[RZNJ]

7 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

Relative, Tallion hasn't been quite as good since his UCL injury in 2019.  He did have his best season since 2018 this past year though.

I liken him to Syndegaard, there may be upside left, but it's less defined since it hasn't happened recently.

Sydergaards stuff is way down from a few years ago.  Taillon’s is pretty close.  Taillon’s last full season before TJ was a 3.9.   Last year, he was at 2.3 (Basitt was 2.7).    Again, Taillon is 31 and Basitt is 34.  I like Basitt but it’s close and I like Taillon better.

[MarCakes21]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

Sydergaards stuff is way down from a few years ago.  Taillon’s is pretty close.  Taillon’s last full season before TJ was a 3.9.   Last year, he was at 2.3 (Basitt was 2.7).    Again, Taillon is 31 and Basitt is 34.  I like Basitt but it’s close and I like Taillon better.

Yes, but Syndegaard posted 2.2 WAR, after pretty much 2 years off, and then was at 4.3 in 2019 and 4.2 in 2018.  There's more upside in Syndegaard than Taillon in my opinion that he gets all his stuff back and turns into a 4WAR pitcher.  And I wouldn't advocate the signing of either.  I'd much rather both/either of Bassit/Eovaldi. 

[emmett16]

I think Bassitt is the best pitcher we could realistically hope for & sign.  I’d be pleasantly surprised.  I’m most interested in signing 1 of the following FAs in this order: 
1. Bassitt

2. Taillon

3. Eovaldi 

The other SP should come via trade.  

[MarCakes21]

7 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

I think Bassitt is the best pitcher we could realistically hope for & sign.  I’d be pleasantly surprised.  I’m most interested in signing 1 of the following FAs in this order: 
1. Bassitt

2. Taillon

3. Eovaldi 

The other SP should come via trade.  

Why trade?  Is Lopez or some other target significantly better than just signing one of those guys above?

Look at how you augment your team, you have resources available in the way of cash over the next 3 years before good guys become expensive.  Use those before you dip into your tradeable assets.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

Bassitt all the way- better health and performance track records and signing him won't give a divisional rival an extra draft pick.

[emmett16]

5 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

Why trade?  Is Lopez or some other target significantly better than just signing one of those guys above?

Look at how you augment your team, you have resources available in the way of cash over the next 3 years before good guys become expensive.  Use those before you dip into your tradeable assets.

I think there are ceilings with the FAs.  Guys to target in trades have a potential next gear.  
 

We have an abundance of IFs and I think the prudent thing to do is take advantage of that resource.  Especially since we are dealing with confederate money in FA negotiations.  

Edited November 23, 2022 by emmett16