Eovaldi vs Bassitt

[Jim'sKid26]

5 hours ago, MarCakes21 said:

So has every pitcher into their 30s.  Look at Kershaw.

Eovaldi is a power pitcher whose best pitch, by far, is his 4 seam FB. Kershaw has "matured" into being a crafty lefty who best pitches are his breaking ball and CH. I see a substantial difference in their style of pitching such that Eovaldi losing velocity is a bit more impactful than Kershaw losing velocity. But that's my opinion. Perhaps its a bit more nuanced than yours. 

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, tabletop said:

I’m not saying to spend it poorly. I’m saying they should spend it on difference making talent. Guys that are expected to put up 5+ WAR in a full season. Guys that if they stay healthy are difference makers. They could sign Verlander and deGrom if they wanted to and their payroll still wouldn’t be anything crazy. Depending on contract length they could both be off the books before any of the prospects start making more than a couple million.

 

I’m not going to disagree with you but there is plenty of reason to not to want to sign those guys too.  I’ll be curious as to what the contracts will be that they get.

[Aristotelian]

6 hours ago, tabletop said:

Which is why it is the perfect time to add deGrom or Verlander. Even with them the payroll wouldn’t be high.

How high are you willing to go? We have to outbid every other team and they still have to say yes. I have a hard time seeing either happening.

[RZNJ]

10 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

How high are you willing to go? We have to outbid every other team and they still have to say yes. I have a hard time seeing either happening.

Never know.  We can afford to outbid other teams for someone like Rodon.   He’s projected by some to get 5 /120 or more.  Does he turn down 5/150 or 6/180?

Now, everyone will say that’s too much, too long, or both.   However, if you want to play with the big boys that’s what you need to do.   
 

There is tremendous risk but he turns 30 next month, was worth 4.9 fwar in 2021 and 6.2 fwar in 2022.   That’s a contract that should not weigh the team down in the short term.  Either you want to be a major player in FA or you don’t.  
 

[sportsfan8703]

I just don’t see us signing FA SPs that won’t pass our physical, require big time deals, and draft picks to boot.  Elias is a different GM, but how did Ubaldo, Gallardo, Cashner, and Cobb work out?

I think Elias plays this low risk. Signs one of Kluber, Clevinger, or Lyles, to a one year deal, then re-evaluates at the deadline. Our 2nd/3rd/4th tier bats are too undervalued to give away in a trade right now. We need a bat like Abreu. We can piece together the rotation with GR, Bradish, Kremer, Wells, and Voth, while figuring out what we have in Hall, and if Means can come back. I think that puts us in the WC hunt, with the chance to go big at the deadline, once our other bats pop off. 

[tabletop]

8 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

How high are you willing to go? We have to outbid every other team and they still have to say yes. I have a hard time seeing either happening.

As high as it takes. With their current payroll they can pay whatever they want.

[Sports Guy]

10 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Never know.  We can afford to outbid other teams for someone like Rodon.   He’s projected by some to get 5 /120 or more.  Does he turn down 5/150 or 6/180?

Now, everyone will say that’s too much, too long, or both.   However, if you want to play with the big boys that’s what you need to do.   
 

There is tremendous risk but he turns 30 next month, was worth 4.9 fwar in 2021 and 6.2 fwar in 2022.   That’s a contract that should not weigh the team down in the short term.  Either you want to be a major player in FA or you don’t.  
 

How many innings would you expect Rodon to throw over a 5 year contract?

[MarCakes21]

14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

How many innings would you expect Rodon to throw over a 5 year contract?

150 for 4 of the years and less than 50 for a year

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

150 for 4 of the years and less than 50 for a year

So, 650 or so?

In his 8 seasons as a ML pitcher, he has just under 850 innings.  Never had a 5 year stretch anywhere close to even close to 600 innings.

So basically, you are saying that a guy, who will be in his 30s for the entirety of his contract, will be healthier in his 30s vs his 20s?

[RZNJ]

53 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

How many innings would you expect Rodon to throw over a 5 year contract?

600-750.  Sure, you can use the two years missed to TJ or you can hope he doesn’t require TJ again in the next 5 years.  Take out those two years and he has 800 IP over 6 years and 300 over the last two.  We can play this game with any pitcher.   Who knew Verlander would break down.   Bassitt is going to be 34 and pitched over 160 innings for the FIRST time in his career at 33.   How do we know that career high 181 innings last year isn’t going to lead to TJ this year and basically make a 3 year contract worthless?

There is risk with EVERY pitcher.  Rodon made every start last year. He’s not the same pitcher he was early in his career.  The last two years show that.  If you can’t take this kind of risk this year then there never will be a time.  We won’t outbid teams for the Gerritt Cole types.   There’s enough doubt surrounding Rodon for the Orioles to get him.

[RZNJ]

Bassitt has 737 innings in 8 years but I’ll be nice and say 7.   How many do you expect from him starting with his age 34 season coming off of a career high 181 innings?

 

[btdart20]

At the end of the day, quality pitches win against quality hitters.  The level of competition rises in the playoffs, so it’s wise to have quality players for a playoff run.  
If we think we’re a playoff worthy team, then we need quality pitching too.  The bar is higher.  And so is the cost and risk.  Investing style would be high growth industries.

If we think we’re on the road to being a playoff team, then the bar isn’t as high.  The cost and risk can be lower.  Investing style would be diversified dividends or battered companies with a turnaround story.

I think we’re a playoff caliber team.  I’m ok throwing a ton of money at a top tier SP.  Verlander, deGrom, and Rodon all have a better skill set than our current #1 SP and be better than many playoff caliber opposing #1 SP.  Yes, that’s a lot of money/risk on one arm.  But investing in proven winners is easier than catching a falling knife.  I favor the short term AAV of Verlander or deGrom.  I’m not opposed to a longer 5 year deal with Rodon (even working in a player or appropriate team option).

Bassitt, Eovaldi and a few other would also be our #1 but would not be definitively better than opposing #1 SPs.  Our playoff odds would improve but the chances of making a run in the playoffs wouldn’t change much. More likely it would depend on Grayson’s development.  And likely not targeting 2023 to really compete for the WS.

I’m just grateful this is even a topic of conversation vs. sifting for diamonds in the rough.  Bring on 2023!

[Too Tall]

Pitchers equal risk. Pick your poison. Whoever the Orioles sign, cross your fingers. I hope Sig and group are as astute at long range health projections as they are at other analytical analysis. I doubt they are but that may be the next frontier. Just get us one or two and so we can worry. Let's also hope John Means post TJ is equal to or better than pre TJ. That's potentially bonus time!

[DrinkinWithFermi]

23 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

600-750.  Sure, you can use the two years missed to TJ or you can hope he doesn’t require TJ again in the next 5 years.  Take out those two years and he has 800 IP over 6 years and 300 over the last two.  We can play this game with any pitcher.   Who knew Verlander would break down.   Bassitt is going to be 34 and pitched over 160 innings for the FIRST time in his career at 33.   How do we know that career high 181 innings last year isn’t going to lead to TJ this year and basically make a 3 year contract worthless?

There is risk with EVERY pitcher.  Rodon made every start last year. He’s not the same pitcher he was early in his career.  The last two years show that.  If you can’t take this kind of risk this year then there never will be a time.  We won’t outbid teams for the Gerritt Cole types.   There’s enough doubt surrounding Rodon for the Orioles to get him.

Rodon underwent TJS during the 2019 season and returned during the 2020 season. In the bookend years before and after season directly affected by the surgery, 2018 and 2021, he missed over 1/3 of his starts and 1/4 of his starts respectively. And in 2017, he missed almost 2/3 of his starts.

You can't blame it all on one injury, the guy is simply brittle.

 

[Frobby]

When it comes to evaluating which pitcher(s) to chase, the great unknown is whether the O’s staff thinks there are things that they can improve.   You could have two pitchers with roughly equal past performance, but the staff thinks one can be improved a lot with a few tweaks and they don’t see much room for improvement with the other.   There’s no way for us to know that.