“Orioles big game shopping & most believe it's exclusively rotation”

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I wouldn’t count on or expect the extension.   Lopez is a good bet on production and he showed durability last year.  The lure is the lack of commitment and money.

Obviously you can’t count on it.   It’s something the team should explore aggressively, if we do trade for Lopez. He doesn’t have a proven track record of durability yet, and isn’t so rich that long term financial security isn’t an issue.  So, there’s some chance of locking him up for his best seasons at a modest discount from what he might get in free agency, if he’s risk-averse.  Two years from FA is a long time to worry about staying healthy and performing well.

[HakunaSakata]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’d really like to get Lopez, then extend him.   He’ll only be 29 when his FA seasons start.  I’d rather pay him than most of the FA pitchers who were on the market this winter.   

I honestly don't know what to make of Lopez. I like his age (young) and he's definitely shown upside, but he really struggled in the second half last season (4.97 ERA Post-All Star break). It was also the first year in which he was able to pitch more than 111 innings and he's struggled with injuries in the past. 

As a comparison, I probably liked Jose Berrios just as much going into the 2022 season he as an absolute disaster in Toronto. Is Lopez an ace in the making or Jose Berrios 2.0? 

 

 

[Roll Tide]

3 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

I honestly don't know what to make of Lopez. I like his age (young) and he's definitely shown upside, but he really struggled in the second half last season (4.97 ERA Post-All Star break). It was also the first year in which he was able to pitch more than 111 innings and he's struggled with injuries in the past. 

As a comparison, I probably liked Jose Berrios just as much going into the 2022 season he as an absolute disaster in Toronto. Is Lopez an ace in the making or Jose Berrios 2.0? 

 

 

I’d still be ok with Wacha at 2/24 or 3/36

[HakunaSakata]

3 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I’d still be ok with Wacha at 2/24 or 3/36

Wacha's historical numbers are awful (outside of last season). No chance I'd give him a three year deal. 

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

I honestly don't know what to make of Lopez. I like his age (young) and he's definitely shown upside, but he really struggled in the second half last season (4.97 ERA Post-All Star break). It was also the first year in which he was able to pitch more than 111 innings and he's struggled with injuries in the past. 

As a comparison, I probably liked Jose Berrios just as much going into the 2022 season he as an absolute disaster in Toronto. Is Lopez an ace in the making or Jose Berrios 2.0? 

 

 

Yeah, Berrios was awful last year but I still thought that was a smart move by Toronto when they did it.  Just goes to show you, any long term contract is extremely risky.  We’ll see if Berrios bounces back.  He did, at least, throw enough innings to qualify for the fifth year in a row.  But the underlying metrics were pretty awful, and suggest the bad season wasn’t a fluke, but a true severe deterioration in performance.  

As to Lopez, in the second half his 4.97 ERA was more than a full run higher than his 3.81 FIP, and his BABIP was much higher than in the first half.  Looking at his game logs, he had 5 starts in the second half that were pretty terrible, but the other 9 (including his final four of the year) were good.  So, I’m not too worried that his second half performance is a sign of trouble.  
 

[Roll Tide]

58 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Wacha's historical numbers are awful (outside of last season). No chance I'd give him a three year deal. 

It’s not optimal …but the market is inflated and likely only going up. If you could do 2 years with a vesting option predicate on era. I expect his era to go closer to his career 4.05

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Obviously you can’t count on it.   It’s something the team should explore aggressively, if we do trade for Lopez. He doesn’t have a proven track record of durability yet, and isn’t so rich that long term financial security isn’t an issue.  So, there’s some chance of locking him up for his best seasons at a modest discount from what he might get in free agency, if he’s risk-averse.  Two years from FA is a long time to worry about staying healthy and performing well.

I think the fact that he's only two years from FA is why he won't cost an arm and a leg.   It's also attractive if you don't want to get tied into a 5 year/100M contract.   I don't think Elias would want to extend him, is what I'm saying.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

1 hour ago, Going Underground said:

Bundy?

Sure, he can go in the pile of mediocre/washed up pitchers that we will probably be soon picking through.

 

1 hour ago, jamalshw said:

If I'm being honest, when we signed Frazier, I figured any offensive upgrade was not going to happen without a trade of someone else. Coming into the offseason, I was hoping for someone like Abreu or Brantley, but I don't think Elias is going to sign someone else at the moment. Frazier gives them someone that can start at 2B unless Westburg or Ortiz win the job in the spring and gives them someone that can take ABs from Hays if he struggles. 

I don't know that they're going to sign someone to lock down a spot given they hope Cowser, Westburg and company break into the big leagues sooner rather than later. The OF figures to be Hays, Mullins, Stowers with Santander at DH and getting occasional starts in the OF. Then Frazier and McKenna get the occasional start as well and Cowser waiting in the wings. (Vavra too if he's on the team). In the infield you have Henderson, Mateo, Urias and Mountcastle with Westburg, Ortiz and maybe Norby on the cusp and Frazier getting ABs at 2B with the others shifting around some. 

I was hoping for clear upgrade with a good OBP to help, but the offensive upgrades will have to be internally. 

I don't think Frazier would have been given $8 million if Westburg or Ortiz or even Urias had any chance of beating him out for significant playing time. He is the starting 2B if he is healthy.

I also suspect that Nomar Mazara has the inside track to getting the part time OF job that would otherwise go to Stowers based on Elias' comments about Mazara being a platoon option for next year's team and the organization's seemingly low opinion of Stowers.

[jamalshw]

3 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Sure, he can go in the pile of mediocre/washed up pitchers that we will probably be soon picking through.

 

I don't think Frazier would have been given $8 million if Westburg or Ortiz or even Urias had any chance of beating him out for significant playing time. He is the starting 2B if he is healthy.

I also suspect that Nomar Mazara has the inside track to getting the part time OF job that would otherwise go to Stowers based on Elias' comments about Mazara being a platoon option for next year's team and the organization's seemingly low opinion of Stowers.

I think it can go a lot of different ways, a 1/$8M is hardly a large investment in today's free agent environment. I do expect Frazier to get everyday (or at least mostly) ABs at least early on but I don't know if it's locked in yet that those ABs will all come at 2B. I think the plan is for Westburg and Ortiz to start the year in the minors and it would take quite a spring to shift from that plan. But I don't think it's inconceivable that they could break camp or at least be up rather early (mid-May) and get a fair amount of starts at 2B. Frazier is another name in the bucket. He's a guy that the Front Office thinks can be fixed and return to his value from the Pirates days. He probably plays 2B every day to start the year, but he's not the kind of guy that should block Westburg/Ortiz if they prove themselves ready. You can still juggle Frazier between a couple days at 2B and some time in the OF, particularly if Hays struggles. It also provides a bit of insulation on Mountcastle if the Orioles are willing to give Westburg some looks at 1B. 

As to Mazara, I think he has a chance to win a spot if he is great in spring, but I don't think he has an inside track. The comment about being an option could just as well be lip service to Mazara who undoubtedly chose Baltimore for the minor league deal because he thinks he's got a better shot at the MLB here (or at least a better shot at showcasing himself in the spring if he doesn't land a role and opts out). It's true, he has a shot here where he may be ticketed for AAA in other places without much chance, but I don't think he makes the team without a strong spring and a lackluster one by Stowers.  But who knows, we will see. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

12 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Sure, he can go in the pile of mediocre/washed up pitchers that we will probably be soon picking through.

 

I don't think Frazier would have been given $8 million if Westburg or Ortiz or even Urias had any chance of beating him out for significant playing time. He is the starting 2B if he is healthy.

I also suspect that Nomar Mazara has the inside track to getting the part time OF job that would otherwise go to Stowers based on Elias' comments about Mazara being a platoon option for next year's team and the organization's seemingly low opinion of Stowers.

If this ends up happening then I have some real concerns about Elias' ability to build major league roster. We know what Mazara is and it's not a very good ballplayer.

Even if the front office doesn't think very highly of Stowers, they still don't know what they have in him as an MLB ballplayer. Why wouldn't you give him a chance to  play and see if he surprises. If Stowers plays well then maybe he is a guy or you have a trade asset in hand. 

I don't understand this strategy of signing retread players like Mazara and Frazier when the Orioles have outfield and infield depth in their system.

[interloper]

Lyles heading to KC.

[Just Regular]

2 minutes ago, interloper said:

Lyles heading to KC.

Glad that guy found a job!!

[Going Underground]

29 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Glad that guy found a job!!

2 year deal 

[wildcard]

13 hours ago, jamalshw said:

I think it can go a lot of different ways, a 1/$8M is hardly a large investment in today's free agent environment. I do expect Frazier to get everyday (or at least mostly) ABs at least early on but I don't know if it's locked in yet that those ABs will all come at 2B. I think the plan is for Westburg and Ortiz to start the year in the minors and it would take quite a spring to shift from that plan. But I don't think it's inconceivable that they could break camp or at least be up rather early (mid-May) and get a fair amount of starts at 2B. Frazier is another name in the bucket. He's a guy that the Front Office thinks can be fixed and return to his value from the Pirates days. He probably plays 2B every day to start the year, but he's not the kind of guy that should block Westburg/Ortiz if they prove themselves ready. You can still juggle Frazier between a couple days at 2B and some time in the OF, particularly if Hays struggles. It also provides a bit of insulation on Mountcastle if the Orioles are willing to give Westburg some looks at 1B. 

As to Mazara, I think he has a chance to win a spot if he is great in spring, but I don't think he has an inside track. The comment about being an option could just as well be lip service to Mazara who undoubtedly chose Baltimore for the minor league deal because he thinks he's got a better shot at the MLB here (or at least a better shot at showcasing himself in the spring if he doesn't land a role and opts out). It's true, he has a shot here where he may be ticketed for AAA in other places without much chance, but I don't think he makes the team without a strong spring and a lackluster one by Stowers.  But who knows, we will see. 

I don't see Mazara with a significant chance to break camp with the O's.  He will be 28 with no success in the majors in the last few years.  He is AAAA big time.  Elias is stocking up on AAAA guys to help at Norfolk.  Mazara, Lester, Diaz, and Cordero.  And he is probably keeping prospects on the farm a little longer to guard against injuries.  Most of  (Westburg or Vavra), Ortiz, Cowser, Hall project to begin the season at AAA.

Westburg may be learning new positions at 1B and corner outfield in addition to playing all over the infield and DHing.

[Roll Tide]

More AAAA signings

 

Quote

The team announced the signings today of right-handers Eduard Bazardo, Wandisson Charles and Kyle Dowdy to minor league deals.

https://www.masnsports.com/blog/orioles-announce-three-minor-league-signings