“Orioles big game shopping & most believe it's exclusively rotation”

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, owknows said:

MiLB Career OBP for the players under discussion:

Ortiz .349

Westburg .371

Norby .364

Cowser .422 (yes, I had to double check that one, but it's right)

Does this mean all 4 of these guys are guaranteed MLB All Stars? No. Of course not.

Does it mean that we have a better class of prospect than we used to? Absolutely.

Are at least two of the players above likely to be MLB regulars and fill out the Oriole Infield (or supplement the Outfield)... ?  I'd bet money on it.

You suggested Correa is a worthy pursuit and should be acquired as a sure thing (and virtually assuring one of the players above never wears an Oriole uniform). Correa has a .354 OBP... not bad... but what's he gonna cost?  And for how long?  And if you get 85% of his production for 15% of his money isn't that a better play?

Sobering fact of the day:  Chance Sisco had a .380 career OBP in the minors.

[owknows]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Sobering fact of the day:  Chance Sisco had a .380 career OBP in the minors.

Hence the "are half these guys likely to be MLB regulars" question?

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, owknows said:

Hence the "are half these guys likely to be MLB regulars" question?

I was just curious what his OBP was since I remember his bat playing very well in the minors.

 

[owknows]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I was just curious what his OBP was since I remember his bat playing very well in the minors.

 

It would be interesting to know what the career differential (percentage change) is in critical stats from MiLB to MLB......   (BA, OBP, OPS etc)... and how it compares to length of career, adjusted lifetime earnings, etc.

[Frobby]

54 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Sobering fact of the day:  Chance Sisco had a .380 career OBP in the minors.

He degraded a lot between AA and AAA, where he was only at .343.   To this day, his .317 OBP in the majors is quite respectable.   But he really fell apart in 2021.   I’m sure there’s a story behind it, but Lord knows what it is.  

[wildcard]

Don't forget Vavra.   

[owknows]

12 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Don't forget Vavra.   

He's in the mix... but circumstances have conspired to keep him from getting at bats.

Deserved or not, he's been assigned the albatross of "defensive liability".

As such, he sat on the bench while Mateo, and Urias, and mostly Odor gobbled up his at bats.

And Odor's AB's were particularly annoying, as he played because of some mythical prowess in turning the double play.... when in point of fact his defense was no better than Vavra's.

So Vavra paid a double penalty... missing out on at bats important to his development... and being labeled "defensive liability" by the actions of his manager.

I lay all of this at Hyde's feet.

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, owknows said:

MiLB Career OBP for the players under discussion:

Ortiz .349

Westburg .371

Norby .364

Cowser .422 (yes, I had to double check that one, but it's right)

Does this mean all 4 of these guys are guaranteed MLB All Stars? No. Of course not.

Does it mean that we have a better class of prospect than we used to? Absolutely.

Are at least two of the players above likely to be MLB regulars and fill out the Oriole Infield (or supplement the Outfield)... ?  I'd bet money on it.

You suggested Correa is a worthy pursuit and should be acquired as a sure thing (and virtually assuring one of the players above never wears an Oriole uniform). Correa has a .354 OBP... not bad... but what's he gonna cost?  And for how long?  And if you get 85% of his production for 15% of his money isn't that a better play?

The sheer volume puts many shots on goal increasing the odds that a few rise to the challenge.  
@Roll TideI wouldn’t call that naive. I would lean the other way in that it’s an informed thought and call it playing the odds, diversifying risk, or building a portfolio.  Small/mid market teams have to constantly assess, acquire, develop, play, and trade away capped out talent/value to be competitive at the MLB level.  Paying to block talent seems like an short term approach on the surface.  Even large market teams realize they need cheap young talent to supplement with spending.

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, tabletop said:

I'm not sure what you mean by "so there is no guarantee". A .329 OBP in the minors is not good and was a cause for concern before they ever made the team. I think most would assume someone with a low OBP in the minors will have a low OBP in the majors and they both do.

.330 in the minors seems to correlate in to a .300 in the majors. Probably not true in every case. But, I’m saying if your expecting Norby, Westburg, and company to come up and immediately give you a .340+ OBP I think your drinking the Orange Koolaid.

[Roll Tide]

10 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

The sheer volume puts many shots on goal increasing the odds that a few rise to the challenge.  
@Roll TideI wouldn’t call that naive. I would lean the other way in that it’s an informed thought and call it playing the odds, diversifying risk, or building a portfolio.  Small/mid market teams have to constantly assess, acquire, develop, play, and trade away capped out talent/value to be competitive at the MLB level.  Paying to block talent seems like an short term approach on the surface.  Even large market teams realize they need cheap young talent to supplement with spending.

So the plan per Elias is to compete. I’m not saying these guys never will but it is naive or at very least sky high expectations to expect 2-3 of the to start this season in the bigs and do it right away. 

[Roll Tide]

6 hours ago, btdart20 said:

I think the O’s have OBP upside for IF in 2023 in-house.  
1. Urias/Gunnar/Westburg

2. Gunnar/Ortiz/Westburg

3. Westburg/Gunnar/Norby (or Vavra or Ortiz)

The OBP black hole of Mateo and Odor are improved by .050-.100.

Corner OF, 1B, DH have limited OBP upside in-house.  Only Cowser (or reclamation projects) on the horizon.  Mountcastle has more power upside but doubt there’s OBP without a change in his mental approach.  Was Santander’s OBP improvement sustainable?  Will the real (or healthy) Hays please stand up?  Even Mullins OBP is about average.

Hays combined OBP in 2018-2019 was only around .275ish. If you just count the 300 ABs in 2019 it’s .299. I’d say we are seeing the real Hays.

[Roll Tide]

Just looking at the top 15 Cowser is the only player in the top 15 beyond Gunnar who I think is capable of giving you a .350 plus OBP.  Westburg in AA and AAA this year OBP was .355. He will be lucky to have a OBP of .330 imo. Gunnar’s minor league OBP this year was .416. Mayo’s .326,  and Ortiz was .400 in AAA in 100 ABs but .337 at AA in 400 ABs. I’d call the 100 a hot streak. 
 

I like Elias plan of adding 2 free agent hitters. 

[wildcard]

31 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Just looking at the top 15 Cowser is the only player in the top 15 beyond Gunnar who I think is capable of giving you a .350 plus OBP.  Westburg in AA and AAA this year OBP was .355. He will be lucky to have a OBP of .330 imo. Gunnar’s minor league OBP this year was .416. Mayo’s .326,  and Ortiz was .400 in AAA in 100 ABs but .337 at AA in 400 ABs. I’d call the 100 a hot streak. 
 

I like Elias plan of adding 2 free agent hitters. 

Like who?

[tabletop]

2 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

.330 in the minors seems to correlate in to a .300 in the majors. Probably not true in every case. But, I’m saying if your expecting Norby, Westburg, and company to come up and immediately give you a .340+ OBP I think your drinking the Orange Koolaid.

Who said they expect .340+? I said hopefully the days of low .300 OBP’s are over. They could have an OBP of .320 and better than every non-rookie on the team last year. I would expect most of the up and coming hitters to have at least a .310 OBP which would be an upgrade over most of the veterans.

[btdart20]

2 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Hays combined OBP in 2018-2019 was only around .275ish. If you just count the 300 ABs in 2019 it’s .299. I’d say we are seeing the real Hays.

I’m fine shopping for a Hays replacement thru FA.  But I doubt Elias plans to spend on a big ticket SS.

Upgrading Odor and Mateo’s OBP can easily be done in-house.