Jump to content

“Orioles big game shopping & most believe it's exclusively rotation”


Roll Tide

Recommended Posts

9 minutes ago, tabletop said:

Who said they expect .340+? I said hopefully the days of low .300 OBP’s are over. They could have an OBP of .320 and better than every non-rookie on the team last year. I would expect most of the up and coming hitters to have at least a .310 OBP which would be an upgrade over most of the veterans.

You never really know until these guys get to the majors how their numbers will translate.  Stowers had a .357 OBP in Norfolk, .306 in the majors this year  Vavra was .435/.340, Henderson .390/.349.  Those are big gaps.  Of course, Stowers and Vavra weren’t playing as regularly as they did in AAA, so that could have had some impact.   Stowers struggled at plate discipline in the majors, which hadn’t been a big problem for him in the minors.  Vavra and Henderson did not have that issue.  Vavra had a much lower BABIP and ISO in the majors.  

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

You never really know until these guys get to the majors how their numbers will translate.  Stowers had a .357 OBP in Norfolk, .306 in the majors this year  Vavra was .435/.340, Henderson .390/.349.  Those are big gaps.  Of course, Stowers and Vavra weren’t playing as regularly as they did in AAA, so that could have had some impact.   Stowers struggled at plate discipline in the majors, which hadn’t been a big problem for him in the minors.  Vavra and Henderson did not have that issue.  Vavra had a much lower BABIP and ISO in the majors.  

Pretty typical to see a dip in performance as players see the next level of competition. Happens somewhat predictably at every level of progression through the minors and into the majors. Often this dip is steep at the outset of a new level, and recovers a bit as players grow accustomed to the higher level performance of their peers.  Sometimes players don't adjust... particularly as they reach the pinnacle of the sport.

I think it's safe to say however, that very strong performance at the upper levels of minor league ball are probably the best (although an admittedly imperfect) predictor of major league success.

That's why you attempt to build a minor league conveyor belt, with multiple players advancing in a staggered fashion at the same (or similar) positions. If one fails to adjust, there's another coming along shortly.

The Orioles have built such a system by strategically suffering the pain of terrible baseball to create what is probably the best overlapping collection of advancing talent in baseball. They have done so mostly with position players... and with a particular emphasis on middle infielders.

I believe the have done this intentionally, as the statistics show a far greater success rate in transitioning to MLB regulars among middle infielders (particularly SS).. and the likelihood of a SS being able to play other infield positions is greater than other infielders being able to play SS.

I also believe the Orioles have concentrated more on position players than pitchers, because the odds of a position player becoming an impact Major League Player are far better than the odds for a pitcher.

All of this has laid the groundwork for the best farm in baseball. It would be a shame to then sabotage the payoff all of that pain and hardship, by going out and paying premium market rates for what they are growing at home (and will be blocking with such moves).

I waited patiently... I invested in the process... I watched the progress...  I want to see the payoff. The home grown payoff.

Trade for some pitching... graduate the position players.... Win.

  • Upvote 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

You never really know until these guys get to the majors how their numbers will translate.  Stowers had a .357 OBP in Norfolk, .306 in the majors this year  Vavra was .435/.340, Henderson .390/.349.  Those are big gaps.  Of course, Stowers and Vavra weren’t playing as regularly as they did in AAA, so that could have had some impact.   Stowers struggled at plate discipline in the majors, which hadn’t been a big problem for him in the minors.  Vavra and Henderson did not have that issue.  Vavra had a much lower BABIP and ISO in the majors.  

And that .306 when he wasn’t getting everyday at bats was still better than all but 3 everyday veteran starters

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 hours ago, wildcard said:

Like who?

I think he had an understanding with Correa. So I think he’s a possibility for sure. We have payroll that won’t be recovered later if not spent. They could front load a deal that lowers his number later. That makes his number lower when you need it to be. If also allows you to trade him once Holliday is ready.
 

I’m suggesting Correa and Benintendi. Then they can trade one of Mateo/Urias and Hays. I’d see how close that gets me to Lopez from the Marlins. Hays can definitely play CF. 
 

As I mentioned before, You’d have 
 

CF Mullins .330

LF Benintendi  .370

C Rutschman .365

SS Correa .360

DH/RF Santander .320

3B Henderson .350

RF/DH Stowers .320 ( was .358 at AAA last year) 

2B/1B Westburg .350  ( minors .370)

2B/1B Vavra .340 

 

This is a drastically improved lineup that will score a ton more runs IMO.

Id do everything possible to clear Mateo, Mountcastle, Hays, and anyone else who flirts with a .300 OBP

 

 

       

Edited by Roll Tide
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, tabletop said:

Who said they expect .340+? I said hopefully the days of low .300 OBP’s are over. They could have an OBP of .320 and better than every non-rookie on the team last year. I would expect most of the up and coming hitters to have at least a .310 OBP which would be an upgrade over most of the veterans.

So they should have a minimum threshold for OBP for a competitive team. I don’t know what that number should be .330? .310 isn’t good enough to move the needle imo. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, btdart20 said:

I’m fine shopping for a Hays replacement thru FA.  But I doubt Elias plans to spend on a big ticket SS.

Upgrading Odor and Mateo’s OBP can easily be done in-house.

“Easily” ? We had 7 or 8 at the end of the season that need to be purged. Hays, McKenna, Mateo, Odor,  Mountcastle, Chirinos, Aguilar. 
 

Urias and Stowers need to be coached up. Tell Ramon to stop swinging for the fences.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

So they should have a minimum threshold for OBP for a competitive team. I don’t know what that number should be .330? .310 isn’t good enough to move the needle imo. 

As you probably know, the average AL OBP was .309 last year, down from .323 as recently as 2019.   So, the O’s were a bit subpar at .305 but it’s not like they were bottom-scrapers.  

I think the O’s are pretty well positioned to improve this year with Adley and Gunnar on the team all year and Odor (.275) gone.   My guess is the league will improve on the whole by 5-10 points with the new anti-shift rule yielding some hits.   

With all that said, I don’t disagree with your point that putting up a decent OBP should be something of a gateway issue for this team.  

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

From Roch today:

When you say the Orioles aren't shopping in the top tier of free agency, does that include Carlos Rodón?


He’s in the top tier. The Orioles may float some offers, as I’ve said, but they’ll be much more aggressive on the second and third levels. Upgrades are available. To say they’re “fishing in the deep end” of free agency doesn’t mean they’re ready to break the bank. It means they’re talking to agents and getting an accurate read on the prices. Never hurts to do that.

https://www.masnsports.com/blog/because-you-asked-holiday-heist

Does Roch actually know anything?  Is he being told this by the club?  Or is he just stating his opinion?  I believe the latter.  Doesn’t mean he’s wrong.  

Edited by Frobby
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

I think he had an understanding with Correa. So I think he’s a possibility for sure. We have payroll that won’t be recovered later if not spent. They could front load a deal that lowers his number later. That makes his number lower when you need it to be. If also allows you to trade him once Holliday is ready.
 

I’m suggesting Correa and Benintendi. Then they can trade one of Mateo/Urias and Hays. I’d see how close that gets me to Lopez from the Marlins. Hays can definitely play CF. 
 

As I mentioned before, You’d have 
 

CF Mullins .330

LF Benintendi  .370

C Rutschman .365

SS Correa .360

DH/RF Santander .320

3B Henderson .350

RF/DH Stowers .320 ( was .358 at AAA last year) 

2B/1B Westburg .350  ( minors .370)

2B/1B Vavra .340 

 

This is a drastically improved lineup that will score a ton more runs IMO.

Id do everything possible to clear Mateo, Mountcastle, Hays, and anyone else who flirts with a .300 OBP

 

 

       

I really don't see Benintendi as a great fit for the Orioles with Cowser just over the horizon. Both are low power/high contact hitters best-suited defensively for the corner OF, which are generally spots where you want mashers. Having that kind of hitter in both corners would be sub-optimal, IMO. If he was available on a 1 or 2 year deal, maybe, but he will be looking for at least 3 or 4 years at minimum.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

53 minutes ago, Frobby said:

From Roch today:

When you say the Orioles aren't shopping in the top tier of free agency, does that include Carlos Rodón?


He’s in the top tier. The Orioles may float some offers, as I’ve said, but they’ll be much more aggressive on the second and third levels. Upgrades are available. To say they’re “fishing in the deep end” of free agency doesn’t mean they’re ready to break the bank. It means they’re talking to agents and getting an accurate read on the prices. Never hurts to do that.

https://www.masnsports.com/blog/because-you-asked-holiday-heist

Does Roch actually know anything?  Is he being told this by the club?  Or is he just stating his opinion?  I believe the latter.  Doesn’t mean he’s wrong.  

He does seem to enjoy being a wet blanket to our off-season wishes. That said, he’s almost always right with what he predicts. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

47 minutes ago, Frobby said:

From Roch today:

When you say the Orioles aren't shopping in the top tier of free agency, does that include Carlos Rodón?


He’s in the top tier. The Orioles may float some offers, as I’ve said, but they’ll be much more aggressive on the second and third levels. Upgrades are available. To say they’re “fishing in the deep end” of free agency doesn’t mean they’re ready to break the bank. It means they’re talking to agents and getting an accurate read on the prices. Never hurts to do that.

https://www.masnsports.com/blog/because-you-asked-holiday-heist

Does Roch actually know anything?  Is he being told this by the club?  Or is he just stating his opinion?  I believe the latter.  Doesn’t mean he’s wrong.  

I think that’s his read on things, based on what has been done by this regime and the little tidbits he gets. (I don’t think he gets nearly as much info as he used to from past GM’s.) I feel the same way, I’ll believe they’re spending big when they actually do it, not until. No matter how much sense it seems to make to me to bring in a true #1 starter. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Not that I particularly covet Rondon but I'm not thrilled he is above the talent threshold.

I am very opposed to signing Rodon due to his chronic throwing arm issues, but I agree. If we are not willing to shop from the top shelf now, when our window is opening, the clock on Adley is ticking, and the payroll is microscopic, then I doubt we ever will.

That said, Roch may just be speculating for content.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

“Easily” ? We had 7 or 8 at the end of the season that need to be purged. Hays, McKenna, Mateo, Odor,  Mountcastle, Chirinos, Aguilar. 
 

Urias and Stowers need to be coached up. Tell Ramon to stop swinging for the fences.

Yes easily.  You basically posted it above too except sign Abreu instead.  Your response to wildcard has Westburg (who has power pitcher would be careful around) posting a .350 and Vavra (who has little power concerns pitchers might attack) posting a .340.  
 

Benintendi and Abreu with $10-15m of what would have gone to Correa now going to a pitcher instead.  
 

Mullins CF

Benintendi LF

Adley C

Abreu DH - .350-.360

Gunnar SS

Westburg 3B

Santander RF

Mountcastle 1B - .305 (with a stronger SLG than Vavra)  Or trade Mounty (with Mateo/Urias and Hays for an SP+) and Abreu at 1B with Stowers/Cowser/Santander at DH or RF.

Ortiz/Norby 2B - .340 (even if Ortiz was a hot streak, Norby hit tool and plate discipline has a long track record)

Plus money toward a better SP!  All with the same budget you’re working with signing Correa and Beni.

For the record - I completely agree the OBP is a key metric we should focus on (and started a thread a while back saying so).  And I’m not advocating for or opposed to Benintendi or Abreu.  Just pointing out that improving OBP can be done in a way that doesn’t block organizational prospect strength at such a high cost while addressing other needs (like 1B depth and TOR).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


×
×
  • Create New...