“Orioles big game shopping & most believe it's exclusively rotation”

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

From Roch today:

When you say the Orioles aren't shopping in the top tier of free agency, does that include Carlos Rodón?

He’s in the top tier. The Orioles may float some offers, as I’ve said, but they’ll be much more aggressive on the second and third levels. Upgrades are available. To say they’re “fishing in the deep end” of free agency doesn’t mean they’re ready to break the bank. It means they’re talking to agents and getting an accurate read on the prices. Never hurts to do that.

https://www.masnsports.com/blog/because-you-asked-holiday-heist

Does Roch actually know anything?  Is he being told this by the club?  Or is he just stating his opinion?  I believe the latter.  Doesn’t mean he’s wrong.  

They can afford any one free agent that they want and still have a bottom 3rd payroll. 

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, tabletop said:

We are saying the same thing.

Perhaps …but I’m saying they should 

 

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

From Roch today:

When you say the Orioles aren't shopping in the top tier of free agency, does that include Carlos Rodón?

He’s in the top tier. The Orioles may float some offers, as I’ve said, but they’ll be much more aggressive on the second and third levels. Upgrades are available. To say they’re “fishing in the deep end” of free agency doesn’t mean they’re ready to break the bank. It means they’re talking to agents and getting an accurate read on the prices. Never hurts to do that.

https://www.masnsports.com/blog/because-you-asked-holiday-heist

Does Roch actually know anything?  Is he being told this by the club?  Or is he just stating his opinion?  I believe the latter.  Doesn’t mean he’s wrong.  

I’m saying we should go all in on OBP. I think with Correa and Benintendi. Dumping guys like Odor , Aguilar, Hays, Mountcastle etc you immediately go from near the bottom to the top. With the right pitcher to lead the way you go to or near the top in runs and drastically improve the run differential 

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

I really don't see Benintendi as a great fit for the Orioles with Cowser just over the horizon. Both are low power/high contact hitters best-suited defensively for the corner OF, which are generally spots where you want mashers. Having that kind of hitter in both corners would be sub-optimal, IMO. If he was available on a 1 or 2 year deal, maybe, but he will be looking for at least 3 or 4 years at minimum.

I think you can get Benintendi on 2-3 year deal. Cowser hit .219 in AAA so you don’t need to rush him. Assume he’s at least a year away.By that time you can figure out if Stowers is anymore than a fringe major league player. If you have surplus then you can deal 1. We have power in Adley, Gunnar, Santander, etc. 

Ill keep saying that you guys are falling in the same old trap. Making plans about every prospect coming up , immediately making a impact, etc.

The farm system is much improved no doubt. But, expecting to hit on a high percentage of these guys isn’t realistic.

[Roll Tide]

16 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Yes easily.  You basically posted it above too except sign Abreu instead.  Your response to wildcard has Westburg (who has power pitcher would be careful around) posting a .350 and Vavra (who has little power concerns pitchers might attack) posting a .340.  
 

Benintendi and Abreu with $10-15m of what would have gone to Correa now going to a pitcher instead.  
 

Mullins CF

Benintendi LF

Adley C

Abreu DH - .350-.360

Gunnar SS

Westburg 3B

Santander RF

Mountcastle 1B - .305 (with a stronger SLG than Vavra)  Or trade Mounty (with Mateo/Urias and Hays for an SP+) and Abreu at 1B with Stowers/Cowser/Santander at DH or RF.

Ortiz/Norby 2B - .340 (even if Ortiz was a hot streak, Norby hit tool and plate discipline has a long track record)

Plus money toward a better SP!  All with the same budget you’re working with signing Correa and Beni.

For the record - I completely agree the OBP is a key metric we should focus on (and started a thread a while back saying so).  And I’m not advocating for or opposed to Benintendi or Abreu.  Just pointing out that improving OBP can be done in a way that doesn’t block organizational prospect strength at such a high cost while addressing other needs (like 1B depth and TOR).

I’m not disagreeing on Abreu, I just think Elias is in on his guy. Also, if Elias is truly all In on competing he won’t rely on 2-3 of these prospects right now beyond Adley and Gunnar to be immediate impact guys. 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

2 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Ill keep saying that you guys are falling in the same old trap. Making plans about every prospect coming up , immediately making a impact, etc.

The point of the last half decade of tanking was to build a potent, sustainable talent pipeline, and the early results look pretty good, at least on the position player side of things. Blocking all of that young talent with expensive, mid-tier free agents is antithetical to what Elias is building here.

[Can_of_corn]

43 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Perhaps …but I’m saying they should 

 

I’m saying we should go all in on OBP. I think with Correa and Benintendi. Dumping guys like Odor , Aguilar, Hays, Mountcastle etc you immediately go from near the bottom to the top. With the right pitcher to lead the way you go to or near the top in runs and drastically improve the run differential 

I think going "all in" on any one aspect of the game is a recipe for failure.

You want to build a roster without regards to power or defense? 

You don't care about pitching?

Teams can afford to have some players that bring tools other than OBP to the party.

[Roll Tide]

24 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

The point of the last half decade of tanking was to build a potent, sustainable talent pipeline, and the early results look pretty good, at least on the position player side of things. Blocking all of that young talent with expensive, mid-tier free agents is antithetical to what Elias is building here.

“Blocking All? Im going off what Elias is saying, 2 Bats. Right now we have a lot of mediocre MLB players. The only guys really locked in are Gunnar, Adley, Mullins, and Santander if you or planning to keep him. That means that you have 2 OF slots or 1 OF and 1 DH. Then 3 IF slots. 
 

If you add one IF bat and 1 OF/DH bat that leaves 2 INF and 1 OF. Stowers so far was a .300 OBP guy. Cowser (.219 avg at AAA) and Norby need another season at that level. Westburg could start at 2B if they think he’s ready now. Wagner/Hernaiz, and Ortiz all need another season at least. And no matter how much you want them to they aren’t all going to make it. It was great to get Adley and Gunnar this season. Hoping for 2 more next season is lofty at least.

[Roll Tide]

15 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think going "all in" on any one aspect of the game is a recipe for failure.

You want to build a roster without regards to power or defense? 

You don't care about pitching?

Teams can afford to have some players that bring tools other than OBP to the party.

What

Benintemdi and Correa play defense. You have power in Santander, Mullins, Adley, and Gunnar.  Correa OPS is .830 and Benintendi is .780 from your  #2 hitter. 
 

I think they are going to get 1 key SP to replace Lyles. I thinking they are going to give a slot to Gray Rod. Pencil in Kremer and Bradish. That leaves Voth, Wells, Akin, Watkins, Zimmerman, and Means to fill the last slot.
 

 

 

Edited November 26, 2022 by Roll Tide

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

What

Benintemdi and Correa play defense. You have power in Santander, Mullins, Adley, and Gunnar.  Correa OPS is .830 and Benintendi is .780 from your  #2 hitter. 
 

I think they are going to get 1 key SP to replace Lyles. I thinking they are going to give a slot to Gray Rod. Pencil in Kremer and Bradish. That leaves Voth, Wells, Akin, Watkins, Zimmerman, and Means to fill the last slot.
 

 

 

You said you want to go ALL IN on OBP.  To me, ALL IN means that's the only tool you are worried about.

By ALL IN did you mean "I think we should prioritize OBP while still targeting players that are talented at other aspects of the game?

Because that's not the same thing at all.

You can't get nine perfect hitters.  They aren't going to be good at everything.  Cost of acquisition is also a factor.

Edited November 26, 2022 by Can_of_corn

[DrinkinWithFermi]

22 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

“Blocking All? Im going off what Elias is saying, 2 Bats. Right now we have a lot of mediocre MLB players. The only guys really locked in are Gunnar, Adley, Mullins, and Santander if you or planning to keep him. That means that you have 2 OF slots or 1 OF and 1 DH. Then 3 IF slots. 
 

If you add one IF bat and 1 OF/DH bat that leaves 2 INF and 1 OF. Stowers so far was a .300 OBP guy. Cowser (.219 avg at AAA) and Norby need another season at that level. Westburg could start at 2B if they think he’s ready now. Wagner/Hernaiz, and Ortiz all need another season at least. And no matter how much you want them to they aren’t all going to make it. It was great to get Adley and Gunnar this season. Hoping for 2 more next season is lofty at least.

Jose Abreu, JD Martinez, and Mitch Haniger on a 1 or 2 year deal are much better fits for the Orioles right now than Benintendi on a 3-5 year deal.

[Roll Tide]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You said you want to go ALL IN on OBP.  To me, ALL IN means that's the only tool you are worried about.

By ALL IN did you mean "I think we should prioritize OBP while still targeting players that are talented at other aspects of the game?

Because that's not the same thing at all.

You can't get nine perfect hitters.  They aren't going to be good at everything.  Cost of acquisition is also a factor.

So I’ve specifically mentioned Correa and Benintendi over and over. Are they one tool players. IMO Sub .320 OBP players are AAAA or trash players. I gave you a lineup 2 or 3 times, unless your considering Vavra a 1 tool guy which I believe it’s too early to tell. It wouldn’t bother me if they decide to trade him. I just have no interest in keeping guys like Hays, Odor, Aguilar, Mountcastle, and Mateo. I’d give opportunities to Stowers, Urias (career OBP .331/ last year .305) to get their OBP to .330 +. I’d ask Mullins to hit the ball hard versus trying to hit homeruns. To me that’s the difference between last year and the year before. Plus he didn’t seem to work the count as much last year.

[Roll Tide]

10 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Jose Abreu, JD Martinez, and Mitch Haniger on a 1 or 2 year deal are much better fits for the Orioles right now than Benintendi on a 3-5 year deal.

I said I’d be fine with Abreu…. JD was a 1 WAR player last year. Haniger is well, trash! 
 

Benintendi was a 3+ WAR player and Correa was 5 WAR. Your basically lobbying for Abreu and the bargain bin. 
 

Your making decisions because your afraid of blocking somebodies. Having multiple options gives you a position of strength to deal. 

Edited November 26, 2022 by Roll Tide

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

I think you can get Benintendi on 2-3 year deal. Cowser hit .219 in AAA so you don’t need to rush him. Assume he’s at least a year away.

I’ve been very resistant to the idea that Cowser could make the team on Opening Day, but if he’s “at least a year away,” I’ll be very disappointed.  After a tough 10 game adjustment in AAA, he hit .299/.390/.582 in the final 17 games.  I fully expect him to hit very well in AAA in the first few months of 2023 and that fans will be clamoring for him to get called up.

 

 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:

I said I’d be fine with Abreu…. JD was a 1 WAR player last year. Haniger is well, trash! 
 

Benintendi was a 3+ WAR player and Correa was 5 WAR. Your basically lobbying for Abreu and the bargain bin. 

We aren't blocking our top prospects with long term deals for free agents and we definitely aren't spending $45-50 million a year for Correa and Benintendi, especially when the rotation is clearly the top priority.

[Roll Tide]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I’ve been very resistant to the idea that Cowser could make the team on Opening Day, but if he’s “at least a year away,” I’ll be very disappointed.  After a tough 10 game adjustment in AAA, he hit .299/.390/.582 in the final 17 games.  I fully expect him to hit very well in AAA in the first few months of 2023 and that fans will be clamoring for him to get called up.

 

 

Well then you bring him up and likely send down Stowers when he does nt give you .330 plus when he starts the season here.  Believe he’s going to strike out too much to have a respectable OBP here. If I’m wrong fine but ultimately things end up working themselves out. 
 

If you are all in on competing you don’t build your teams around the hopes of hitting on every prospect or the majority. Even the best farms systems don’t produce multiple stars every season.

If Elias wants to go with playing the kids fine. But, that’s not all in on competing moving forward imo.