What will Cedric Mullins be in 2023?

[forphase1]

36 minutes ago, now said:

Curious about "rumors," which imply "leaks," which we seem pretty sure aren't available at least to our "insiders." There was the purely speculative piece in MLB.com in the MAD Magazine style of "Trades We'd Like to See," but I would clarify that's not a rumor just an exercise. 

Well, whatever it was, if such a deal was really a possibility, I'd jump on it.  Larger point being, I'm not really convinced that Mullins is going to be good enough going forward to keep him if a good deal is offered, and I feel he's much more likely to continue regressing a bit more versus regaining any of the 2021 magic.  

[Camden Yards]

Cedric will be our starting center fielder. Will produce a WAR of at least 4, will play a great centerfield, will again steal 30 plus bases, will again play at least 150 games, will hit 20 home runs, and score 100 runs. We have him under control for three years and good centerfielders are hard to get. He is a veteran and a great role model for our younger players. He is a big plus!! No way we are trading him. 

[forphase1]

2 hours ago, Camden Yards said:

Cedric will be our starting center fielder. Will produce a WAR of at least 4, will play a great centerfield, will again steal 30 plus bases, will again play at least 150 games, will hit 20 home runs, and score 100 runs. We have him under control for three years and good centerfielders are hard to get. He is a veteran and a great role model for our younger players. He is a big plus!! No way we are trading him. 

Considering that he didn't hit 20 home runs this year (16) and he didn't score 100 runs this year (89) or last year (91), it's highly unlikely that he hits either of those targets next year either.  His WAR this year was 3.8, so to say he will produce at least 4 WAR next year isn't a guarantee either.  Listen, I don't hate Cedric, and I greatly appreciate him and his role these past couple of years.  But I think some value him WAY higher than his production and likely future performance warrants, and if another organization is also overvaluing him, then we should take advantage of that, trade him, and improve the team over all.   

[oriole]

2 hours ago, Camden Yards said:

Cedric will be our starting center fielder. Will produce a WAR of at least 4, will play a great centerfield, will again steal 30 plus bases, will again play at least 150 games, will hit 20 home runs, and score 100 runs. We have him under control for three years and good centerfielders are hard to get. He is a veteran and a great role model for our younger players. He is a big plus!! No way we are trading him. 

Heck yea

[Frobby]

8 hours ago, forphase1 said:

Considering that he didn't hit 20 home runs this year (16) and he didn't score 100 runs this year (89) or last year (91), it's highly unlikely that he hits either of those targets next year either.  His WAR this year was 3.8, so to say he will produce at least 4 WAR next year isn't a guarantee either.  Listen, I don't hate Cedric, and I greatly appreciate him and his role these past couple of years.  But I think some value him WAY higher than his production and likely future performance warrants, and if another organization is also overvaluing him, then we should take advantage of that, trade him, and improve the team over all.   

I think Cedric’s chances of scoring 100 runs are improving because the lineup behind him is improving.  It was fairly amazing to me in 2021 when Mullins reached base 242 times with 30 HR, 37 doubles and 30 stolen bases and yet didn’t score 100 runs. That’s a real indictment of the batters behind him.  Last year he was on base 29 fewer times with 14 fewer homers and 5 fewer doubles, yet only scored 2 fewer runs.   I think with Adley and Gunnar here all season, and maybe another offensive upgrade, Mullins might score 100 runs this year even if he stays flat from 2022.   

[wildcard]

20 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think Cedric’s chances of scoring 100 runs are improving because the lineup behind him is improving.  It was fairly amazing to me in 2021 when Mullins reached base 242 times with 30 HR, 37 doubles and 30 stolen bases and yet didn’t score 100 runs. That’s a real indictment of the batters behind him.  Last year he was on base 29 fewer times with 14 fewer homers and 5 fewer doubles, yet only scored 2 fewer runs.   I think with Adley and Gunnar here all season, and maybe another offensive upgrade, Mullins might score 100 runs this year even if he stays flat from 2022.   

I agree the run producers behind him will be better but its going to be hard for him to score 100 if he doesn't hit lefties any better than he did in 2022.   The league has found a hole in his plate coverage and he has to adjust to hit lefties better.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I agree the run producers behind him will be better but its going to be hard for him to score 100 if he doesn't hit lefties any better than he did in 2022.   The league has found a hole in his plate coverage and he has to adjust to hit lefties better.

Well, like I said, If he stays flat he has a chance.  Of course, if he doesn’t improve against lefties he will find his PA dropping and you can’t score runs when you didn’t come to the plate (pinch running aside).

[MarCakes21]

9 hours ago, forphase1 said:

Considering that he didn't hit 20 home runs this year (16) and he didn't score 100 runs this year (89) or last year (91), it's highly unlikely that he hits either of those targets next year either.  His WAR this year was 3.8, so to say he will produce at least 4 WAR next year isn't a guarantee either.  Listen, I don't hate Cedric, and I greatly appreciate him and his role these past couple of years.  But I think some value him WAY higher than his production and likely future performance warrants, and if another organization is also overvaluing him, then we should take advantage of that, trade him, and improve the team over all.   

What’s his true value though? 3.5 WAR with excess value of 15mil+ here and controllable? Or 2 WAR? 
 

If the FO thinks he’s actually a 2 And a platoon, then you trade him like he’s a 4War. But there’s still too much excess value if he’s 3.5+

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

What’s his true value though? 3.5 WAR with excess value of 15mil+ here and controllable? Or 2 WAR? 
 

If the FO thinks he’s actually a 2 And a platoon, then you trade him like he’s a 4War. But there’s still too much excess value if he’s 3.5+

Why should he be regarded as a 2 WAR player, when he’s been worth 5.7 and 3.8 the last two years and is 28 years old?  Being conservative in evaluating your own players is one thing, but that’s ridiculous.   

[MarCakes21]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Why should he be regarded as a 2 WAR player, when he’s been worth 5.7 and 3.8 the last two years and is 28 years old?  Being conservative in evaluating your own players is one thing, but that’s ridiculous.   

I didn’t say he is a 2, but if the team thinks is defense and speed regress, and over a 5 year he’s more like a 2WAR and platoon where you cut 1/4 of his ABs because that’s your plan, then you trade him at peak value like he’s a 4-5 WAR player now.

 

if you think he’s a 4-5WAR Player though I believe you keep him at least until he’s a UFA. I also think he’s a 3.5+ player who can improve so I advocate keeping him and signing FA SP

Edited November 26, 2022 by MarCakes21

[DrinkinWithFermi]

The FO should do their best to figure out if Mullins is the strict platoon player he presented as in 2022 or the guy who can hit both righties and lefties that we saw in 2021. If they conclude that he is more of the platoon guy from this year, then we should do our best to cash in on him now.

[wildcard]

36 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

The FO should do their best to figure out if Mullins is the strict platoon player he presented as in 2022 or the guy who can hit both righties and lefties that we saw in 2021. If they conclude that he is more of the platoon guy from this year, then we should do our best to cash in on him now.

Only if the O's have an equal or better replacement in CF.  The O's are trying to win now.  They should not create holes.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

9 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Only if the O's have an equal or better replacement in CF.  The O's are trying to win now.  They should not create holes.

Trade Mullins for a starter and sign Kevin Kiermaier to platoon with McKenna for a year or two until a better option comes along. Bada bing, bada boom.

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Trade Mullins for a starter and sign Kevin Kiermaier to platoon with McKenna for a year or two until a better option comes along. Bada bing, bada boom.

Kevin Kiermaier is coming off season-ending hip surgery.  There’s no guarantee he’ll be the same player defensively when he returns.   

[DrinkinWithFermi]

26 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Kevin Kiermaier is coming off season-ending hip surgery.  There’s no guarantee he’ll be the same player defensively when he returns.   

Obviously that would be part of our due dilligence. Brett Phillips and Cody Bellinger are other potential options if KK's health report is not to our liking.