What will Cedric Mullins be in 2023?

[Just Regular]

Curious to see how after a Good Enough consolidation season Fangraphs pegs Mullins when they do their offseason position power rankings.

Last Year:

Tier1 - Trout, Buxton, Acuna (now Harris for ATL), Robert, Nimmo, Springer (now IMO taken off the position by TOR)

Tier2 - Bader, Bellinger, Grisham, Mullins, Kelenic (now Julio has proven his CF chops), B. Reynolds

Two possible Mullins suitors will get Nimmo and Bellinger, and then we'll see who's left.

He feels very Right Player, Right Price for our team though.    I prefer 3 years of Mullins to 2 of Pablo and would not do that switch even up.

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Obviously that would be part of our due dilligence. Brett Phillips and Cody Bellinger are other potential options if KK's health report is not to our liking.

Mullins for Kiemaier, Phillips, or Bellinger  is swapping a top of the lineup hitter (at least vs righties) for a bottom of the lineup hitter  who is probably a drag on the offense.    I doubt that is the direction that Elias goes.

Edited November 26, 2022 by wildcard

[forphase1]

8 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think Cedric’s chances of scoring 100 runs are improving because the lineup behind him is improving.  It was fairly amazing to me in 2021 when Mullins reached base 242 times with 30 HR, 37 doubles and 30 stolen bases and yet didn’t score 100 runs. That’s a real indictment of the batters behind him.  Last year he was on base 29 fewer times with 14 fewer homers and 5 fewer doubles, yet only scored 2 fewer runs.   I think with Adley and Gunnar here all season, and maybe another offensive upgrade, Mullins might score 100 runs this year even if he stays flat from 2022.   

I certainly think the lineup behind him is improving, but if he continues to slump against lefties I feel he will get fewer and fewer at-bats against them, thus reducing the number of times he gets on base to be driven in.  As you noted latest year he was on base 29 fewer times, and I expect that number to drop a bit more next year as he'll likely get even fewer opportunities and I honestly expect his regression from 2021 to continue.  I hope I'm wrong, but I'm not sure he's as good in 2023 as he was in 2022.  

[forphase1]

7 hours ago, wildcard said:

I agree the run producers behind him will be better but its going to be hard for him to score 100 if he doesn't hit lefties any better than he did in 2022.   The league has found a hole in his plate coverage and he has to adjust to hit lefties better.

Yup, that's my feelings completely.  If he's going to end up just being a platoon type player due to his struggles against lefties, then his value to the Os is greatly lessened.  Which is why I support trading him if we can get good value for him.

[forphase1]

7 hours ago, MarCakes21 said:

What’s his true value though? 3.5 WAR with excess value of 15mil+ here and controllable? Or 2 WAR? 
 

If the FO thinks he’s actually a 2 And a platoon, then you trade him like he’s a 4War. But there’s still too much excess value if he’s 3.5+

If I were asked to put a number on the WAR I expect out of Mullins next year, I'd be in the 2.8-3.2 WAR range.  There is a ton of value at those numbers, but if another team is valuing him as a 4+ WAR player, then send him packing.  What I saw from him last year was a very good, solid player, but not exactly one that you make untouchable or build a team around.  If he hits like last year I don't like him at leadoff against LHP (.209 BA, only .265 OBP) though he did well enough against RHP to keep him there against them (.279/.340).  I really hope we get something closer to the 2021 Mullins next year, and it's certainly possible.  But I'm not betting on it. 

[Sports Guy]

I expect another 3-4 WAR season.

[wildcard]

The O's should keep a player for what he can do.  Mullins has a lot of value to the O's because he can hit righties, plays a great CF and he turns singles into doubles with his steals.   That is worth keeping.  That is worth building around.   That is worth supplementing.

Show me a player that can play CF as well as he does and also hits and I will be OK with a trade of Mullins.  Until then he is an Oriole in my book.

Fans like to talk about trades and what pitcher the O's can get in return.   But they don't like to talk about how to replace Mullins.  Mostly because the O's don't have an answer for that at this point.

[Sports Guy]

51 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The O's should keep a player for what he can do.  Mullins has a lot of value to the O's because he can hit righties, plays a great CF and he turns singles into doubles with his steals.   That is worth keeping.  That is worth building around.   That is worth supplementing.

Show me a player that can play CF as well as he does and also hits and I will be OK with a trade of Mullins.  Until then he is an Oriole in my book.

Fans like to talk about trades and what pitcher the O's can get in return.   But they don't like to talk about how to replace Mullins.  Mostly because the O's don't have an answer for that at this point.

There are plenty of ways to replace him and they have been talked about a lot on here.  

[wildcard]

34 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

There are plenty of ways to replace him and they have been talked about a lot on here.  

None that are as good as Mullins offensively, defensively and contract wise.   Nimmo is projected to get 5/110m.   Mullins will make  about 5m next year.

With the O's trying to make the playoffs next year the idea is to get better in CF not worse.  So no Kiermaier.

[Sports Guy]

36 minutes ago, wildcard said:

None that are as good as Mullins offensively, defensively and contract wise.   Nimmo is projected to get 5/110m.   Mullins will make  about 5m next year.

With the O's trying to make the playoffs next year the idea is to get better in CF not worse.  So no Kiermaier.

The idea is to have a better team.  You can have a 1.5-2.5 WAR in CF, which is worse than what Mullins likely will have, and still be better off overall.  

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

The idea is to have a better team.  You can have a 1.5-2.5 WAR in CF, which is worse than what Mullins likely will have, and still be better off overall.  

But the O's can keep Mullins, improve at other positions and have a better team.

[forphase1]

17 minutes ago, wildcard said:

But the O's can keep Mullins, improve at other positions and have a better team.

There are many ways to improve.  In my opinion starting pitching is our greatest weakness.  If we can trade from our strengths, position players, to enhance our pitching staff, then do it if the right deal came along.  I'd be willing to part with about any position player on our mlb roster other than Adley and Gunnar.  If Mullins is our most valuable trade piece on the roster, then trade him for pitching.  I feel we have enough young talent coming up to replace his production in the lineup.

Let's be clear, I'm not advocating a firesale or anything goofy. But with Westburg, Ortiz, Stowers, Cowser, etc all possibly seeing MLB time this year and hopefully outperforming who they replace in the lineup, and a full year of Gunnar and Adley, I expect the runs scored to increase even if we don't add bats from free agency.  But it's the arms that worry me as Grod only 1 starter and will be limited on pitches.  I'm ok with trading a position starter if we can get a worthwhile pitcher, and Mullins may be the best chip to play.   And given that I'm down on him repeating a 3.8 WAR season or better in 2023, he'd be at the top of my list.  We will get more for him than we would for a Hays, Mateo or Urias.

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, wildcard said:

But the O's can keep Mullins, improve at other positions and have a better team.

Yes, they can.  But could they improve more by downgrading somewhat in CF to get a pitcher who’s a better option than anyone available on the FA market, age, health, ability and cost all considered?   That’s the question.   I’m not saying the answer is clear, but that is what Elias & co. need to consider.   And it depends on what Mullins would bring back and what the alternatives are in CF.   Trade Mullins straight up for Lopez and sign Kiermaier until Cowser is ready?   I am not crazy about that one.  But there could be some similar scenario that works.  

[wildcard]

43 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Yes, they can.  But could they improve more by downgrading somewhat in CF to get a pitcher who’s a better option than anyone available on the FA market, age, health, ability and cost all considered?   That’s the question.   I’m not saying the answer is clear, but that is what Elias & co. need to consider.   And it depends on what Mullins would bring back and what the alternatives are in CF.   Trade Mullins straight up for Lopez and sign Kiermaier until Cowser is ready?   I am not crazy about that one.  But there could be some similar scenario that works.  

Going from Mullins to Kiermaier is a downgrade and there is no proof that Cowser has anywhere close to the range of Mullins.  

Better to keep Mullins and sign a FA starter.

Stowers and Cowser will push Santander and Hays for playing time  in the near future but not quite yet.    I like the depth they provide.   Did you see how injuries hit Tampa last year?

Edited November 27, 2022 by wildcard

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Going from Mullins to Kiermaier is a downgrade and there is no proof that Cowser has anywhere close to the range of Mullins.  

Better to keep Mullins and sign a FA starter.

Stowers and Cowser will push Santander and Hays for playing time  in the near future but not quite yet.    I like the depth they provide.   Did you see how injuries hit Tampa last year?

You have no idea what’s better. You are guessing, as we all are.

There isn’t just one way to build a team, whether it’s the Os or anyone else.

The Astros “downgraded” at SS last year.  They won 106 games and won the WS.  To act as if losing Mullins is somehow going to be detrimental to the team is wrong, provided they improve other areas.

I have said it before…A Brett Philips and McKenna  platoon is likely an upgrade defensively and gives you very good speed.  There is also evidence that you can get a high 600s or maybe even low 700s OPS out of that.  That’s not much of a drop off at all And if Mullins allows you to get pitching that you need And is better short And long term from what you can buy, that is a smarter way to do things.