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“Orioles will significantly escalate payroll in the offseason “


Roll Tide

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1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:

And before it was announced that they were getting a $30 million payout from the Disney deal. And before the new TV deal started. 

The new TV deals already started.  Also, the Disney deal was pretty much a foregone conclusion.  They had an option to buy the last 15% of BAMTech, with a variable price that had a floor of $752 mm.

People need to remember that while it’s nice to get a one-time slug of cash, that also cuts off any dividend flows the team has been receiving year-by year.  Disney wouldn’t be exercising the option if they didn’t believe that the future dividends would nave exceeded the purchase price.   So, it’s not all wine and roses here.   

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2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Largely correct.   If a player earns deferred comp relating to his play in Year X, the money has to be escrowed on July 1 of Year X+2, discounted at 5% per annum until the year it will be paid.   So for example, let’s say a player $10 mm in deferred comp coming to him relating to his play during the 2021 season, but the money wasn’t to be paid until July 2030. The team would be required by July 2023 to put approximately $7 mm into escrow, on the assumption that at 5% annual interest that would grow to $10 mm by July 2030.   If it turns out that the escrow fund hasn’t reached $10 mm by the 2030 due date, the team still has to make up the difference and pay the player in full.   

So, the O’s still have some Chris Davis deferred payments they need to fund from the 2021 and 2022 seasons.   Everything else should be funded already.  

On another topic from your post, I don’t recall Elias saying he was targeting a MOO bat.   


 

I remember reading it …also for @DrinkinWithFermi

he said this 

 

Quote

“We had a lot of young pitchers take steps forward. I’m very happy about the base of talent that we now have,” Elias said. “We have the flexibility with our roster construction and payroll to supplement as we see fit. This is a very unique offseason for us.”


and 

 

Quote

“We’ve got a lot of interesting starters. But they’re not guys who have a track record of being front-end-of-the-rotation starters,” Elias said. “If we’re able to go out this winter and get more veteran certainty, that would be big.

“We’re going to be out in the market for that, for sure.”

There also is an opportunity to improve the lineup.

“I do want to add a bat or two,” Elias said. “The positional flexibility of the guys that we have on the current team makes it possible for that to come in some different shapes and sizes defensively.”

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/11/12/sports/orioles-are-looking-take-next-step-becoming-playoff-team/

 

@Frobby I read somewhere a pitcher and 2 hitters with a MOO.  I can’t seem to locate it. Perhaps it was a rumor caption. I can try to look again later.

Edited by Roll Tide
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4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The new TV deals already started.  Also, the Disney deal was pretty much a foregone conclusion.  They had an option to buy the last 15% of BAMTech, with a variable price that had a floor of $752 mm.

People need to remember that while it’s nice to get a one-time slug of cash, that also cuts off any dividend flows the team has been receiving year-by year.  Disney wouldn’t be exercising the option if they didn’t believe that the future dividends would nave exceeded the purchase price.   So, it’s not all wine and roses here.   

Yeah but the other poster is insinuating that Elias didn’t see the uptick in prices coming. Elias is too smart not to have seen it coming. And so negative right now that he believes Elias will fish in the bargain bin. It’s a stupid approach and I believe he will do nothing before resorting to half measures.

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Just now, interloper said:

Hitter-wise, I think Elias is going to improve the lineup not with a big All Star hitter but with a guy that just improves lineup depth. Some kind of OF/DH/1B that will fill in the gaps. And really, that kind of player would do wonders for this squad. 

The team OBP is pretty terrible. They need more than depth to improve the run scored deficit.

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2 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I remember reading it …also for @DrinkinWithFermi

he said this 

 


and 

 

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/11/12/sports/orioles-are-looking-take-next-step-becoming-playoff-team/

 

@Frobby I read somewhere a pitcher and 2 hitters with a MOO.  I can’t seem to locate it. Perhaps it was a rumor caption. I can try to look again later.

Thanks.  I remember the quote above about wanting to add “a bat or two,” but I don’t remember him saying a middle of the order bat.  Personally, I don’t know why we’d be chasing a bat other than a middle of the order bat.  As Elias said, we don’t have any glaring holes.  If you’re going to replace the guys we have, it needs to be someone better, right?  Otherwise, why bother?  So, my only question here is about what exactly Elias said, not about what I’d like him to do.  

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19 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Santander is likely traded, if you sign a SS Mateo gets traded, Hays isn’t worth the raise, and Mullins is still a bargain at 4 million.

And even if they keep all it’s not a “significant increase”. He would’ve just said we will increase our guys.

He said 2 hitters with a MOO bat. Anything of value is going to push up the payroll. A starting pitcher better than Lyles at 11 million will cost you $20 per.

 

If we are to take Elias at his word on payroll why do you think Santander is likely traded? Elias said "We see no real strategy in moving him and we’re excited to have him back for the next two years”.

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Just now, Roll Tide said:

The team OBP is pretty terrible. They need more than depth to improve the run scored deficit.

I don't disagree. However, we're going to see zero Chirinos and Odor and a lot more Adley and Gunnar. I think SS is an area they obviously could improve in offensively. And I think Hays is a pretty sizeable drag on this offense overall, so some kind of solution there would be good. 

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3 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Yeah but the other poster is insinuating that Elias didn’t see the uptick in prices coming. Elias is too smart not to have seen it coming. And so negative right now that he believes Elias will fish in the bargain bin. It’s a stupid approach and I believe he will do nothing before resorting to half measures.

The team has to live with the market they’re in.  They could spend the next ten years saying “oh, we didn’t realize FA prices would be so high this year,” and never get anywhere.  That would be a waste.   But as I said earlier, I do think it’s possible the O’s will rely more heavily on buy-side trades, rather than free agent signings, if they sense the FA market has gotten irrational.  Elias already said he would consider both avenues depending how the markets look.  

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2 hours ago, Frobby said:

This has already been discussed ad nauseum, including a poll about how high payroll will be next year.  

Now we are in the hand-wringing phase.  The first couple of big moves of the offseason have been made, and the Orioles haven’t done anything yet.   Neither have most other teams, but because of the Orioles’ recent low payrolls and longstanding habit of slow-rolling the offseason, fans are going to be increasingly nervous as each day goes by and players start coming off the board, even if it’s players who nobody had mentioned as a potential Orioles’ target.  

Honestly I hope the O’s have made at least one move by the end of the winter meetings just so we don’t have to rehash this topic on a daily basis.  But it won’t be the end of the world if the moves come later, so long as they are smart, significant moves.   And we’ll see.  Elias promised he won’t be sitting on his hands.   I believe him, but understand why some people are nervous about it.  

 

We are definitely in the hand-wringing phase, and I am definitely nervous as a fan but trying to remain level-headed. Guys are getting bigger than expected contracts in FA and that does make things a little more nerve-racking. We're still holding our breath and waiting to see how JA/Elias react in this new phase. No one has any real info and there's no real history to draw on when it comes to Elias in this scenario. And there's the wild cards of Angelos family drama, sale rumors, etc in the background. It's a dicey time. 

Edited by interloper
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Elias never said anything about a middle of the order bat.  He said one pitcher and two bats but that may have been before they declined Lyles option.   Roch and others keep floating a LH bat that can play 1B and corner OF.  That sounds like a bench/supplemental piece to me.

I would say it’s greater than 50/50 the O’s sign Bassitt or Taillon.   I keep bringing up Taillon because the Orioles love spin rates.   I bet they think they can get more out of him.  One stupid overpay for a #3 pitcher is hardly going to become an albatros.  Elias will get one pitcher through FA. Other pieces could come via trade.   Certainly, Mateo or Urias can bring back an interesting ML bat that fits.

Edited by RZNJ
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The hand wringing is part of the fandom.

Eflin's the first guy in overall quality I'm a little sorry to see go, but his low IP last year made him a poor "Better Jordan Lyles".     Tyler Anderson there's the uncertainty if his Dodgers improvements travel, plus I figured Elias may have been Qualifying Offer sensitive, but good to see that doesn't appear to be a constraint with Bassitt rumors.

Granting Verlander-deGrom-Rodon a bridge too far, the box for me is now resting at Senga, Bassitt, Taillon, Heaney, Eovaldi, Manaea and Taijuan.    Don't go 0-for-7.    

I'm cool on Stripling and Kluber, but grant others might like them just as well.

Smyly, Wacha, R. Hill, K. Gibson, Quintana - your pitcher shape is getting pretty Jordan Lyles-ish for me.

In fantasy drafts with salary cap player acquisition rules, there's the adage the worst thing you can do is leave ducats unspent.    To the extent Elias has a relevant 2023 budget, getting towards the time to win a player or two.   It usually isn't good to "need" the last guy in a tier. 

 

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